That would be a very tough situation for the Republicans. Cheney can’t win and I think the party faithful knows that. Rudy Giuliani or George Pataki might be candidates, but they have no foreign policy or military experience. John McCain? Would he run against Kerry? I don’t see John McCain allowing Cheney to remain as VP if he were to accept the nomination.
Would they nominate George H W Bush? Colin Powell?
Many of the Republican faithful don’t trust McCain. They see him as a closet Democrat – okay for a single state, but not for President.
Powell has been marginalized in his job. It would be tough for Republicans to say (he’s been beaten over the head by the Vice President and Secretary of Defense, but he’s our guy!")
I actually believe that most people consider Giulini’s lack of foreign policy experience is balanced by Giuliani’s 9/11 actions. Strong, compassionate, decisive and cool in a crisis.
Ironic that McCain is viewed that way, since he’s actually one of the more conservative senators. Also ironic that he has such a reputation for integrity, given the scandal (God, I forget the name or the details, but it was five congressmen, including both McCain and John Glenn) he was involved in some years back.
But I’d still feel better about having him in the White House than having W. Of course, as I’ve mentioned elsewhere, I’d feel better about having a tree stump in the White House too…
If the Toilet of Doom had offed Bush back before the primary season, McCain would have had a good shot at the nomination. But given that now the nominee would be chosen by the convention delegates, all of whom are pro-Bush, the likelihood that they’d choose McCain is infinitesimal.
I think they’d find Guiliani a bit too moderate for their tastes as well, but they might just not take a close enough look to realize that. Still, he’s never held an office higher than mayor. And even if we’re talking about the mayor of NYC, that’s still a ways down in the rankings, so to speak.
Your candidate pool really starts with the Republican governors and US senators, and toss in Cheney and Powell for good measure. Then filter by: (a) will they be sufficiently conservative to satisfy the delegates? and (b) will they be perceived by that group as having sufficient appeal and experience to have a reasonable chance of being elected?
I come up with two names that I think would best survive that filtering: Jeb Bush and George Allen. Jeb has been governor of FL since January 1999; Allen was governor of VA from 1994-98 and has been senator from VA since January 2001. Given that Jeb’s not only GWB’s brother, but is far better known nationally, I’d bet my money on Jeb. Plus he represents a much bigger state (and a swing state at that).
IMHO, if anything serious were to happen to Jeb, be it the Toilet of Doom, major scandal, or doing such a lousy job as guv that even Pubbies didn’t want to be seen with him down there, I think Allen would have the inside track for the GOP Presidential nomination in 2008 if he decided to run.
Despite all of what I’ve just said, there’s one important fact to note: the GOP strongly prefers coronating a nominee to fighting over one. And Cheney is still in the best position to be coronated GWB’s immediate successor, should anything happen to Dubya. Unless the GOP’s Powers That Be got together quickly, agreed that Cheney had to go, and were able to reach swift agreement on who to nominate instead, the nominee would probably be Cheney, despite the likelihood that he’d go down in flames if he was at the head of the ticket.