This is the unusual case where the veep can really help the ticket.
As for low name recognition, bring named to the ticket creates the name recognition. And low name recognition (outside Pa.) means that hardly anyone has a preconceived negative idea about him.
I’ve been trying to establish a baseline or the guiding principles for beating Trump in this thread. What problem are you solving for?
Not 100% clear what happens with the Biden-Harris war chest. Nor implications for the Democratic machine that organizes down to the local level and get out the vote? If the answer is Kamala, then it’s a no brainer to me she should carry the ticket.
If Kamala wasn’t in the equation, then I’d go for Whitmer to deliver the cheddar head swing states. Two women on the ticket makes me leery only because there is a significant number of folks that vote against a woman.
The Veep choices are interesting. Again, what problem are you solving for? Drive young voters to the polls (Beto O’Rourke), delivering a swing state, assuaging retired white male fears (Mark Kelly?).
Assuaging Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt. That could occur by keeping Biden and vastly increasing his public appearances, or switching in Harris and having her barnstorm the country, along with lots of Dems cheering on the team. There’s plenty to cheer about and Trump presents a target-rich environment.
I don’t see Biden stepping down. At best he will not seek re-election. Harris would be the obvious choice but she polls worse than Biden. When Biden made her the “Border Czar” it shifted the border policy onto her shoulders and it’s going to be following her around politically.
So with that said I would choose a Senator or Governor from a state that shifts votes in favor of Democrats.
Again, Shapiro is too Jewish. We would already have a Jewish First Gentleman and the people who want this to be a Christian country are just too powerful ( note recent laws about the Ten Commandments needing to be posted and the (Christian) Bible needing to be taught in public schools).
I would also add that choosing someone from a red state would be a waste of opportunity. You want somebody from a swing state and definitely somebody with executive experience which Harris doesn’t have. With Virginia potentially in play either Kaine or Mark Warner would be a good choice but we can’t afford to lose the Senate seat. Also they are both too old. Josh Shapiro is really almost perfect except he is too Jewish, Whitmer would be great except we can’t have two women, Buttigieg would be great but we aren’t ready for a gay President and Cory Booker would be great except we can’t have two black candidates on the ticket. I really don’t know what the other options are.
Andy Beshear is wildly popular here in Kentucky; the only people who don’t like him are mad because he took the pandemic seriously. He got re-elected fairly easily and is the only Democrat to win statewide in some time. He chooses his compromises well, for the most part. Based on my own interactions and those of a lot of people I know, he comes off as a genuinely nice guy with a lot of goofy dad energy.
He’s a better Governor than Kentucky deserves, and he’d probably be a better President than we deserve.
I’ve pushed back against local talk of him running for President in 2028 because I think he’d come off as dull in a national contest. I’ve always seen his trajectory as a Cabinet position once his term is up, or possibly McTurtle’s Senate seat. But if a VP spot were somehow available? That might be the perfect place for him.
The latest CNN poll has Harris outperforming not just Biden but other contenders as well. If those numbers hold up, then she becomes the obvious choice especially since that will also take care of the campaign money issue.
It’s reasonable to be skeptical of these numbers when compared to lesser known contenders like Whitmer but not so much when comparing to Biden. At this point, I suspect that Harris, while thoroughly mediocre, is a less bad option than Biden.
The two things to watch out for are polls and any events that Biden does to reassure skeptics; the latter cannot be rallies but have to be events without a teleprompter: interviews, townhalls, press conferences. Apparently there will be an interview with Stephanopoulos and that will certainly be watched closely. Biden needs to do 3-4 such events and perform well to restore confidence.
Right now it does appear the pressure on Biden is increasing with a few politicians calling him to withdraw. The pressure from the media pundits is immense and will begin to take its toll. Biden is in some trouble though of course the bottom line is that if he refuses to give up the nomination there is nothing anyone can do to force him.
It’s not going to get any better. If he stays in the race it won’t be long before he’s cancelling appearances or again looks and sounds like he did on debate night. One more poor showing will clinch the election for Trump, and Biden is barely able to run a few points behind Trump right now. Joe has been hiding from the public recently because his decline is so apparent. One by one Democrats in congress will be calling for him to give it up.
If he stays in the race he’ll lose. The arguments to the contrary are extremely weak. To say he’s a better choice than Trump is obvious, any person pulled at random off the street would be a better president than Trump. The question is can he win the election against Trump and and there’s little reason to think he can. On top of that he’s putting the congressional races at risk. If he stays in the running Republicans will win a majority in the House and the Senate. It doesn’t take much imagination to see the result of that.
Every minute counts now. You have to swap horses midstream when the horse you’re on is drowning.
Except I don’t think he’s drowning.
The debate was pitiful, I agree, but there’s a damned sight more to governing than debate skills. I think he’s still a good president.
Who would you have replace him? Time is pretty damned short here, and I think Biden has a better chance of winning than a sudden new face on the scene.
Anyone who can stay awake for 90 minutes. Trump looks viable next to Biden, against someone who has their wits about them Trump will look like a fool. If Biden stays in the race Trump will endlessly run ads with scenes from Biden zoning out and stumbling through the debate, along with every other mental and physical stumble he’s made in the past or as he inevitably will make if he continues in the race.
This is not a question of who will replace him. If he doesn’t bow out Trump will win. Anyone else gives some chance.
Actually, it is:
IF it is obvious that Biden should step aside, who should take his place?
That wasn’t what I was addressing. Someone moved my OP into this thread that has a different basis.
I’m not sure if Harris is the most electable if everyone suddenly agreed on someone else, but she has a plurality and that’s what we have to live with. Anything else could rupture the party. So that would be my choice. If the hypothetical stepdown happens after the convention, she’d have to be the nominee, and if she’s good enough for a backup after the convention, why not before?
One thing we definitely shouldn’t run is a conservative Democrat, a “consensus candidate”, or a literal DINO who used to be a Republican. Those have had a pretty bad track record, for instance, Ron DeSantis versus Charlie Crist.
In my completely humble and uneducated layman’s opinion, the person who should replace Biden is Pete Buttigieg. He’s smart, handsome, charismatic, eloquent, and well informed on matters of policy. I don’t know if he’d make a good President, but he’d make a very good campaigner. Yeah, he’s gay, but I think most people who’d have a problem with that are probably unlikely to vote Democrat anyway.
In terms of what’s politically possible, given how little time (relatively speaking) there is until the election, a more pragmatic choice would be Kamala Harris. She’s not as good a campaigner as Buttigieg, IMO, but as VP she’s best positioned to hit the ground running.
Buttigieg struggled a lot with minorities in the primary, so I’d be concerned that the ones Biden lost wouldn’t come back for him. I think my ideal choice would be Whitmer but agree Harris is likely the most practical.
Harris is the only one who could use the existing campaign and money. Any other possibility is a fantasy.
Kamala Harris is the only option to replace Biden. The campaign money, the infrastructure, the name recognition, the identity of the Democratic Party, keeping the base on board, avoiding the circular firing squad that considering someone else would precipitate — all of that points in only one direction.
But I think a better strategy than replacing Biden is for the campaign to really push a (slight) rebrand into the Biden/Harris campaign. Start giving her equal billing, maybe more. They should really put Harris out there and start emphasizing how ready she’d be when/ if needed. She in turn should station herself in PA-MI-WI, visit every county and diner, every block party or anything else that has at least 5 people, from now until Election Day. Maybe leave a few times to go to AZ, but that’s it.
That could reassure the swingers and help to bring back and reconsolidate the base and suburban women.
If this is going to happen, Democrats should go all out. Biden should resign so that Harris would be running as the incumbent POTUS. IMHO that’s the best alternative to continuing with Biden.
It seems it is more than just us here:
Dozens of Democratic lawmakers are considering signing a letter demanding President Joe Biden withdraw from the race, a senior party official said, as panic mounts that he’ll cost them control of Congress.
Biden is rapidly losing the support of Democratic lawmakers and candidates concerned the 81-year-old’s continued candidacy would lead to a Republican sweep of Washington and an unchecked Donald Trump presidency.