I don’t think oppressively high. I’ll concede Virginia to him right now. Ohio may be the toughest thanks to his anti auto bailoout stand. Florida may be tough because of the Ryan Medicare plan but somewhat mitigated by the perception that Obama is not the best friend that Israel ever had.
As I see it, Romney needs to go 3-for-3 with Virginia, Florida, and Ohio.
If Romney loses Florida, that’s just such a big chunk of EVs in its own right that he’s toast. He can win Virginia, Ohio, Colorado, Iowa, and Michigan, and he still only gets 268.
If he loses Ohio, chances are he’ll also lose the Midwestern states that have usually gone Dem in recent years but are being contested this year: Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa. If he wins Virginia, Florida, and Colorado, he’s still only got 257 EVs. So even if he picks up, say, Iowa and NH, he still loses the election.
If he loses Virginia, winning Florida, Ohio, Iowa, and Colorado brings him only to 268. He’d need to pick up one more state to get him over - NH or Michigan or Wisconsin or Nevada or New Mexico - or pick up that one CD in Maine to get to 269 and throw the election into the House, and likely win it there. (Each state delegation gets one vote if the House decides the election, which gives the GOP an edge even if they lose control of the House itself.)
I’ve always wondered what happens to those states with evenly split House delegations. Presumably there would be a standoff and that state wouldn’t vote either way. But would they then bargain with both sides to get a great plum for the state? Or are there enough Republican majority delegations that the point is moot?
After the bizarre Clint Eastwood debacle at the convention and somewhat positive reports on the FiveThirtyEight bog, I have to say it’s looking good for my man Obama. I’ve not detected much of a “convention bounce” for Romney, and I expect there to be quite a big one for Obama after his convention next week. I really hope he can pull this off.
I don’t really see that happening. Romney’s “convention bounce” didn’t happen because everyone knows who he is. It feels like he’s been running for POTUS since I was a teenager, and I’m 30 now. Same goes for Obama. I doubt any sitting POTUS has ever gotten much of a convention bump.
Well, when I say “I really hope he can pull this off,” I’m talking about reelection and not a convention bounce.
Remember reading this post election. It will be close but like it or not Obama is going back in. That is a fact !
I hope that ain’t no shit, Shine Ola. 
A lot can happen between now and November. I happen to think a lot will have to happen to give Romney the race, but it’s still possible.
Unless you are posting from the future, it cannot, by definition, be a fact.
Reminds me of A Perfect World (1993):
Terry, still angry about getting kicked on the side of the head, says, “If you ever try that shit again…” Butch interrupts, “You’re in the middle of threatening me.” Terry holds up the gun and says, “It ain’t a threat, it’s a fact.” Butch has Phillip take the wheel, he leans over the back seat and says, “In two seconds I’m going to break your nose – that’s a threat.” He immediately punches him in the nose, then picks up the gun from the back seat, and takes the wheel again as he adds, “And that’s a fact.” Terry, hurt and stunned: “I’m going to kill you for that,” to which Butch adds, “And that’s a threat. You can understand the difference.”
Reading the FiveThirtyEight blog makes me confident that Obama will win. But what’s annoying is BBC TV, whose news service we have 24 hours. They are forever portraying the contest as “neck and neck,” “a complete toss-up,” “anyone’s guess” etc. And then there are the local Thai commentators who never seem to understand politics in any country outside of Thailand let alone the US but who are confident in predicting a solid Romney win and telling Thai business what repercussions this will have for them and how to prepare for it now. If it weren’t for FiveThirtyEight, I might be distressing right now.
Well a close race is much more exciting than watching the underdog get his ass handed to him so the media tries to pretend it is close because that will keep people watching.
But if you look at 538’s electoral vote count, Romney’s best score has never been higher than Obama’s lowest score. Romney’s best EV score is in the 250’s while Obama’s lowest score is in the 280’s- ten more electoral votes than he would need to win. There is no way Romney is going to close that gap.
Romney’s chances of winning are dwindling day by day. He didn’t get any traction from his VP pick. The most memorable moment at the RNC was Clint Eastwood talking to an empty chair, while the DNC was three days of amazing speeches and ecstatic crowds. He’s running out of moments that can turn the race around.
About all he’s got left is the debates. And seriously, does anyone really think he has the advantage there? Obama is both more charismatic AND wonkier than Romney. Romney can’t win on charm and he can’t win on expertise. About all he can do is mutter platitudes and pray some catastrophe befalls the country before November.
And, depending on the nature of the catastrophe, even THAT could work in Obana’s favor.
Unless you’re living in some alternate universe, the Democrats had a much better convention than the Republicans. Couple that with what is expected to be a decent jobs report, and Obama is going to get a nice bounce. Maybe not as nice a bounce as Dolly Parton on a trampoline, but sure to be a bigger bounce than Romney got.
So Romney has three debates and two jobs reports to turn things around. Maybe he’ll call in some favors and get some buddies to start closing their plants. Maybe the Euro crashes and burns. It’s hard to see that the debates are going to swing the pendulum Romney’s way. He was a much better debater at the end of the endless Republican debates, but let’s be real here: the competition was weak and reluctant to do him any damage. His main attack points against Obama were completely dismantled by Bill Clinton. Now Romney has to go on Meet The Press and try to convince us that he isn’t a lying sack of shit. He can take some solace in that his interrogator is David Gregory and not Rachel Maddow.
The media hypes a horse-race to maintain viewership, but actually Romney is fading fast. Ryan is an albatross around Romney’s neck. At least Palin was charismatic and drew big crowds.
Obama is breaking positive in the Gallup daily tracking poll. 538’s electoral college tally is runaway Obama.
And, the Las Vegas odds have Obama at 60% probability of a win against 40% for Romney. That is not trivial because with those guys it’s real money.
Crane
Nate Thayer has upped Obama’s chances of winning to 85.7%. Just gets better by the day.
Who’s Nate Thayer?
I think he meant Nate Thilver, you thilly boy.