So the election is just a week away. (Okay, eight days since it’s still Monday over there.) How’s it really looking? Lots of stuff happening. Nate Silver is showing Obama strengthening again. Hurricane Sandy looks to be wreaking havoc. Other stuff, all of which have separate threads. But what’s the overall conventional wisdom now? Objectively.
I would say it is looking uncomfortably close. Florida is in the bag for Romney from what I can tell. Colorado and Iowa could easily tip that way as well. My best guess is on election night if the Prez can take Virginia I will breath a bit easier. If he gets Ohio as well it is basically over. It still looks like Obama has the edge in the Electoral College but things seem to be shifting back and forth in ways that reinforce the idea it is very very close.
And there is no telling how this effing storm will impact the situation.
Personally, I think the storm may help Obama. Who’s going to get power restored faster in Virginia- the DC suburbs or the mountains in the west of the state? Some of those mountain folk may be too busy digging out from the snow or scrambling for basic needs to go out and vote. Ditto for Pennsylvania- Philly will be back online soon enough, the Alabama part of Pennsylvania might take several days. In general, the big Democratic stronghold urban areas will be up and running long before the Republican Hootervilles all across the mid-Atlantic. I say- advantage Obama.
I’m pleased to see that Nate Silver now predicts Obama at 314.4 electoral votes and a 91.4% chance of winning. That’s sounding a little more like it.
The answer (or at least one answer), from what I see from various sources, is superior GOTV and related organization in key states. And demographics (as backed up by policy said demographics liked).