This is a “What if” question with respect to just how far we would be willing to intrude on another country’s national sovereignty if critical US economic interests are at stake.
As a “what if” let’s say a less US friendly, more aggressively anti-Israel/US regime overthrows the Sauds, tells US troops to beat it and stops supplying oil to the US. Let’s assume the new regime has the backing of the Saudi people.
How important is Saudi oil to US in the larger scheme of things?
Can Russian (and other) oil replace the loss?
Does oil triple in price?
Do we go in and forcibly try to re-establish the Saud regime or do we move on?
The question is irrelevant because the Saudis need to sell their oil more than we need to buy it. It is quite literally the only thing of any significant economic value they have, and they need the cash flow it provides.
Even if they don’t sell to us, specifically, they have to sell to someone, and since oil is a commodity market in the truest sense of the word, those sales will affect the world oil prices just the same.
I tend to agree with the above poster. I think our leaders would probably go pretty far in order to assure we would get an oil supply. Without oil, things would kind of grind to a halt in a lot of areas. It would be great if we could find enough oil in our own country but at the same time, I wouldn’t want to lose all of our parks and wildlife areas either.
If the Saudis refuse to sell to the US, but they continue to sell to Europe and Japan, then almost nothing changes. Most Saudi oil goes to Europe anyway. Think about it. If Walmart refuses to sell me a DVD player, I can get the same thing over at Target.
But if the Saudis refuse to sell any oil whatsoever, their whole economy would collapse. Saudi Arabia would be facing starvation within months. No regime, no matter how xenophobic, could afford to completely shut down oil production. It is their only real industry, aside from the Hajj.
Since the last oil crisis, the US has made provision for ample supply elsewhere. It also has huge reserves. The last time backfired on the Saudis, they’re not likely to try it again, given their plummeting GDP and spiralling deficit.
What if the new hypothetical regime halves oil production or sits on OPEC to double the price per barrel?
Lets say they were able to precipitate something like a long-term repeat of the 1973 Oil Crisis. The US would have to radically shift its way of life and perhaps impose things like fuel rationing. I don’t think in the long term much bad will come of it – gas prices will go to $5 a gallon, people will drive less, carpooling, public transportation, alternative energy sources, less reliance on Middle East oil. But the short term effect will probably be enough to cause some serious economic chaos.
I imagine that we’d see alternate fuels being pushed much harder. I doubt that the U.S. would use military force right off the bat in order to secure oil… such an action would be met with even more protest than Vietnam. However, if things got REALLY desperate - $10 a gallon for gas, for example - support would grow, and the U.S. will find some reason to go in there. They’d probably cite some Human Rights violations in Saudi Arabia or something, go in, topple the government, and install a puppet.
Hey… this sounds like a pretty cool Tom Clancy plot…
Gosh, you mean we would be forced to do away with the all american gas guzzling SUV, force auto makers to develope new fuel saving technology and get rich doing so, stop the flow of dollars into the Saudi terrorist financing network, force implementation of other alternative fuel sources, improve air quality and lower the trade deficit? What’s the downside again?
Result: the Americans pay 50% more for gasoline (discouraging SUV purchases) and the Canadians (especially the Albertans) get massively richer from increased oil sales. Alternate fuel systems (including hybrid-electric cars) get a huge boost.
Funny, I can’t really see much of a downside, except that petrolium products get more expensive, which hurts in the short-term. Wars have been fought over less, though I seriously doubt gas in the U.S. would ever get to $10/gallon. Maybe a European-ish $3/gallon (how high did it get during the embargo in the seventies, adjusted for inflation?). Of course, the resultant whining would be deafening, giving a major boost to the earplug industry.
If you’re going to play “what if”, ponder what might have been if the Iraqis had invaded Kuwait and Saudi Arabia in 1990. Without Saudi bases, the American buldup would have taken a lot longer, and when the Iraqis were finally beaten back, they likely would have torched every Saudi oilrig that could, as they did in Kuwait.
The problem is not that Saudi’s will shut off oil supply - they need to sell more than we need to buy (short term at least) but what happens as over time other non-Opec sources start to run out (which is already happening) and the Opec countries have a greater % of remaining easily pumpible oil. Market forces will push the price a lot higher than $10 a gallon, and a lot sooner than some people are planning on. Look at these links for some hard data :
The President is connected with Texas Oil and knows these facts - Iraq is definitely important to our stragetic survival more because of their oil reserves (and the threat to Saudi and Kuwaiti supplies) than danger to us due to WMD.
Wars are already being fought to secure oil supplies, but even the Opec supply will start to fall off in another 10 years - then we are really going to face some hardships trying to quickly convert to other sources, most of which are going to be more expensive and less energy efficient at the same time.