Moderator: If this was a previous thread, feel free to direct us to it. Thanks.
Just wondering what would happen in this Florida deal was held up in courts after Inaugaration Day.
Here’s what the 20th Amendment says:
“Section 3.
If, at the time fixed for the beginning of the term of the President, the President elect shall have died, the Vice President elect shall become President. If a President shall not have been chosen before the time fixed for the beginning of his term, or if the President elect shall have failed to qualify, then the Vice President elect shall act as President until a President shall have qualified; and the Congress may by law provide for the case wherein neither a President elect nor a Vice President shall have qualified, declaring who shall then act as President, or the manner in which one who is to act shall be selected, and such person shall act accordingly until a President or Vice President shall have qualified.”
So, who do you think it would be? With a Republican Majority, it looks like it would be Bush-Cheyney being appointed by Congress, though according to this law, Gore could techinically be acting Prez until Congress acts.
It seems the make-or-break date is Dec. 12th – that’s the date on which the states pick their electors, who then vote in the state capitals on Dec. 18th.
There seems to be some question about whether to count Florida at all if this is unresolved by then. If we don’t count Florida and neither candidate has the magic 270 electoral votes, then the House votes for the president, same as if it were a tie. I’ve also seen that if we don’t count Florida and just go with the candidate with the majority of electors, then Gore wins automatically because as it stands, without Florida he has the majority of the Electoral College votes.
Huh? So:
Either we don’t count Florida, and the House chooses the president (presumably Bush, of course). Each state has only one vote, so there could be a tie, theoretically.
Or we don’t count Florida, and Gore wins automatically because he’s ahead now in the Electoral College vote;
Or, assuming Florida makes a decision on recounting ballots or re-voting and is able to pick its electors according to the popular vote, we will have our next president chosen by the full Electoral College.
The presidential succession act kicks in (and we go with the Speaker of the House) only if the House is tied on Jan. 20th.
So, what good do lawsuits do? This has to be resolved one way or another by Dec. 12th. Who decides whether to count Florida – Florida? If we don’t count Florida, which way do we go? I don’t get it.
Last night on Letterman, Cokie Roberts said that if the race is not resolved by Jan. 20, the presidency would fall to the Speaker of the House. She felt it unlikely that he would accept the position (only gets to be president for a month or so, and then he can’t go back to being Speaker, she said.) According to Cokie, who I will admit is not the most sterling source, Strom Thurmond would be the next elligible official.
If Florida has not straightened itself out by Dec. 18, then Florida can be shut out of the Electoral vote. This would basically remove their 25 votes from the pool, making the total available only 513. Since the Electoral vote is a straight majority vote (as per the 12th Amendment - there is no law requiring all states to be present), this means the future prez only needs 257 votes instead of the standard 270. Before New Mexico pulled its 5 votes, Gore had 260 Electoral votes, which would have made him the next President. However, New Mexico did pull its votes (“too close to call!”). So, this leaves us with the following scenarios:
All three outstanding states take too long, and miss the Dec. deadline (unlikely, but still a possibility): All three states get shut out of the Electoral vote, total pool is now 501, so winner needs a mere 251. Gore currently has 255, Bush 246. Gore wins (assuming none of the Electorates switch sides).
New Mexico and Oregon participate, but Florida is still shut out: Total pool is 513, winner needs 257. Gore currently has 255, so would need either NM (5 votes) or OR (7 votes) to win. Bush would need both to win.
Everyone gets their act together. Florida decides the outcome.
Everyone gets their act together (Florida goes for Bush, NM and OR go Gore), but somewhere along the way, 2 Bush Electorates (possibly from FL?) decide to switch votes, perhaps believing that Gore, having won the overall popular vote should rightly be President. Both are now tied at 269. Vote goes to the House for President, the Senate for Vice-President. Assuming voting along party lines, Bush wins the House, but Senate could be split 50-50. In such a case, the tie-breaker goes to…the current VP. Gore would undoubtedly vote Lieberman, giving us a Bush-Lieberman Presidency! Of course, if the Senate isn’t split, it, too, would go Republican, giving Cheney the VP-ship.
I suggest reading history books to see what will happen.
In 1876 there was a dispute in three states about which party’s electors had been chosen in the November vote. In addition, for reasons I can’t remember, one of Oregon’s electors was in dispute. As a result, when the electors selected by the states in November met on December 6th of that year, in the disputed states both proposed sets of electors met and tabulated their votes, sealed them and sent them to Congress. Congress then set up an Electoral Commission to determine which envelopes should be opened and counted. Eventually, the Commission, stacked 8-7 in favor of the Republicans, who controlled Congress, voted 8-7 in the case of each state (and the disputed Oregon elector) to accept the Republican electors’ votes. As a result, Rutherford B. Hayes officially won the vote in the so-called Electoral College 185-184 over Samuel J. Tilden.
Thus, assuming that the issue of the electors selected by Florida remains unagreed by the two parties, presumably both sets of electors will vote and transmit their votes to Congress, which then will have the dubious task of determining which envelope to open.
Wouldn’t it be possible for Hastert, if he had to resign his House seat and Speakership, wouldn’t just run for the seat again after the new president was inaugurated? It’s also possible that the Republicans, seeing that the Speaker is likely to take over, could choose a different Speaker? Perhaps there would be some representative who’d want to fall on his sword for the Republican Party?
Li’l Tommy Jefferson, whom I knew when he was just a kid, thought that the country should have a revolution or constitutional crisis about every twenty years or so, just so that things don’t get too solidified, and to reflect that the “will of the people” changes.
I dunno if the impeachment counts as a constitutional crisis, but if so, then we’ve had our fair share.
Which may be one of the reasons Bush is threatening to demand recounts in Wisconsin, Iowa and Oregon. If he can tie up those states, and put them into a similar muddle, then the advantage among the remaining electoral votes (after eliminating FL, WI, OR and IA) shifts back to Bush.
There’s been lots of opportunities for the Bush and Gore crowds to come up with quotable quotes, but it was Clinton who scored big for me last week. Commenting on his lame duck position until the newly elected president is sworn in:
“All I know is that I have ten more weeks left to quack.” Sounds like he might not be interested in anything past mid January.
I heard (sorry, no cite) that if the voting isn’t sorted out in Fla., then the Fla. legislature (controlled by Republicans) gets to select the electors, so it would seem that one way or another, Fla. will be in the mix on Dec. 18. I’m hoping to see Dubya prevail, but that would be a terrible way for it to happen.
Who says Strom will still be president pro tempore? On Jan 3rd when the new senate comes in, there may be a 50/50 split, and they must elect a new president pro tempore. Who do you think they will pick? Since Gore still runs the Senate, I think a Democrat will win.
But here’s a twist… if Gore wins, then Lieberman has to give up his seat, and the GOP gets a majority, and Strom will still be Senate Majority Leader, but so what? He won’t be President pro tempore, the Minority Leader will hold that post.
Has the Minority Leader ever been pro tempore before?
Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha! That’s a good one GKittridge!
