I’m going to try to break down the OP, my opinions on it, and what is more and less likely to happen based on my various assumptions.
One, not fighting the hypothetical, although I think it very likely that Trump will never be sentenced to anything with jail time, the point where Trump calls for Insurrection will be right before he actually has to go into actual prison. So after all the appeals, calls for mistrial, bias, etc. And let’s be honest, he’s likely to die of old age / ill health before that happens given his influence and supposed assets - and that’s if we don’t have another (R) president before that who pardons them for the good of the country.
So - in light of this assumption - assuming he lives through all this, he’s not going to be silent about the trial/appeals/etc during the years this is going on. And it will be years. During which, unless his influence wanes, his follows if true to form will continue to double down on their support, because they can’t give up at this point.
So, given this supposition, I suspect the time and hardening of POV will lead to both @Johnny_Bravo’s well prepared crazies (thinking of the Aurora Gunman but on larger, more liberal scale), as well as various groups that will (a la Michigan) be ready to do various organized assaults on the FBI, the judges, informants, and prosecutors as well as possible jury members.
In short, it’ll be very, Very ugly. I don’t quite think we’ll go the route of full on violent riots in the majority of areas, but it’ll be lots of widespread actions and very little effective action because it’ll be mostly disorganized groups.
But a LOT depends on who runs, and who is elected (and if the elections are anything close to fair which I will not bet on given the ways various (R) legislatures seem to want to override popular vote)… if we get another 4 years of something resembling sanity, and the economy rumbles along with a minor upswing, I suspect said influence will wane, leaving us to just the individual crazies.
If he runs, and god-forbid loses in 2024 with the prospect of eventually being held accountable, that’s when I expect him to perhaps openly call for his fans to rise up with the familiar ‘stolen election’ credo. And they juuuuust might.
Again, I’ve tried not to fight the hypothetical, but I think this is a much more likely scenario for him calling for a direct insurrection.