If trump wins the nomination, but is then convicted…

Politics & Elections
1
  • Assuming that the conviction occurs before the July 15 GOP convention
  • And assuming that Ronnie McDaniel then suspends the rules for the first ballot

What will the delegates do?

  1. Stay with trump, a convicted felon (and potentially serving a prison sentence by then)
  2. Nominate Haley, presumably for a better chance of a Republican in the White House (Although many of the delegates’ #1 priority is getting reelected, so they might stick with trump, to keep the votes of his base)
  3. Nominate someone else
2

They have tied their colours to his mast (or summat other appropriate metaphor)

The GOP delegates keep the faith, god being on their side.

3

Ronna McDaniel has no authority to suspend the rules.

4

Well, shoot. I could’ve sworn I read a reference to that on electoral-vote.com last year. But now all I can find is that it would take a 2/3 vote of the delegates to suspend the rules. Something that seems unlikely even if he’s in prison.

5

If trump is convicted, and sentenced to prison, how long can he drag out the appeals? He’ll resist until the end, but I fully expect him to abscond rather than be locked up. He’ll have been forced into it by a very unfair trump-hating legal system, of course. He’ll fly out of the country on Harlan Crow’s jet in his Ginni Thomas disguise. It’ll be like when Lucky Luciano was exiled to Italy, he’ll get a bunch of hardcore ass-kissers to visit him occasionally, but he’ll be obviously washed up.

6

He will stay out of jail during the appeals, get elected President and pardon himself. He’s probably immune from state action while in office, but if not he just never steps foot in those states.

It would produce some bizarre political theater.

7

Assuming he’s convicted in the DC insurrection trial (95+% chance, given DOJ history), his lawyers then file an appeal.

Per DOJ rules, if Chutkan decides his appeal is weak, he is immediately remanded to custody, while awaiting the resolution of his appeal. If she decides his appeal has merit, then he is free on bond pending appeal.

Given his defense aired so far, and his substandard lawyers, his appeal will definitely be weak.

So… off to prison he goes.

8

Would a DC conviction be covered by a Presidential (federal) pardon?

9

Biden: won’t happen, ever.
Haley et al: Yes
Trump: self-pardon is uncertain

10

As far as absconding, that’s covered here: Hypothetically, if Trump flees the US, where would he go?

11

Exit polling from NH says voters would cheerfully vote for Trump even if convicted on criminal charges.

Of course, if any of those voters owned a small business, they wouldn’t hire someone with even a minor criminal conviction to even sweep the floors. But an orange insurrectionist who once wanted to send out the military to seize ballot boxes is perfectly fit to lead the country. This either illustrates the power of demagoguery or the ravages of insanity.