The thing that is impeding Ukrainian progress is the Russian defenses, which the Russians have had many months to prepare. If the Ukrainians can punch a hole through the main defensive lines, that impediment is largely gone and operations can shift to maneuver warfare. The Ukrainians can widen the hole in the defensive lines, which, being attacked side-on and from behind, should not prove too challenging.
(above) Map of Russian defensive fortifications
The open terrain in southern Ukraine means enemy units can be spotted from miles away. It is very different to the woodland of northern Ukraine that favored light infantry and their ability to conduct ambushes on Russian supply lines. To cut Ukrainian supply lines, Russia would need large formations of vehicles and infantry, drawn from sizeable reserve forces that they don’t have.
You talk about Ukraine needing troops to defend their flanks, but Russia will need troops to plug holes as a Ukrainian salient grows in size, otherwise Ukrainians can just push into empty space, cut Russian supply lines and encircle Russian troops.
The Ukrainians and their allies were planning for months prior to the commencement of the counteroffensive to conduct maneuver warfare. That is what their newly-raised units were being trained in and equipped for. The density of Russian minefields meant that they had to revert to attritional warfare, but if the Ukrainians can break through the defenses, they are well set to exploit the space behind and make much more rapid progress.
Ukraine has done a very good job asking for and largely procuring what equipment and support it thinks it needs. No one thought they would do this well, least of all Putin, and not many have been recently asked to make these types of sacrifices. They have learned to use things and adapt to situations quickly, but not without problems as the unfortunate training accident reported today.
Not sure quite how big a mystery the involvement of extremely high Russian officials in causing plane crashes is. Maybe not quite as big a mystery as the time Scooby-Doo and Shaggy unmasked the scofflaw who scared people away by dressing up as no-faced zombie. But still real mysterious.
Although I am concerned about war crimes, I still maintain the best defence of many Russian people is they may have little control over some decisions made by their government. The American politicians who have publicly disavowed supporting Ukraine seem to be somewhat clueless with regards to long term vision or knowledge of foreign affairs. Better a just peace sooner than later, and hopefully decent efforts at mine removal and rebuilding for the long time that will be required afterwards.
You keep repeating this bullshit and it continues to remain patently untrue. Wagner faced no opposition, either internal in its own command structure (which wasn’t the Russian government it was trying to coup), nor external from the Russian military when it walked into Rostov-on-Don and road marched most of the way to Moscow. It doesn’t directly answer to the Russian government and isn’t mostly being folded into the Russian forces. Since you haven’t been paying attention, its mostly gone to Belarus and Africa. You think they’re going to take a massive pay cut and work for the government they tried to overthrow two months ago? Seen any of these Wagnerites that have been mostly folded into the Russian military on the frontline in the war special military operation in the last two months Komrad?
Hey dumbass, they’ve been illegal under Russian law since they were created, during all of their time in Africa, and the war over 500 days they spent in the 72-hour special military operation in Ukraine. This has been explicitly pointed out to you several times, as has the fact that Russia is not a nation of laws, it’s a kleptocracy where all branches of the government violate the laws on a daily basis. It runs on graft and corruption, not the rule of law. I really worry about your drinking Komrad, all these facts you’ve been told many times before keep falling out of your head. You should have that checked out.
I absolutely agree that Ukraine has done amazingly well. It took Russia several defeats to realize the quality of the Ukraine military. Then the lines stagnated as Russia went into almost total defence mode. This bought time for both sides to reload. But Ukraine did waste too many resources in Bakhmut. A couple of other places, but in lesser amount. Unfortunately during that time Russia still conducted long range precision attacks on a daily basis. Ukraine also did this, but on a far smaller scale. Materiel and production losses behind the lines were worse for Ukraine. I still think Ukraine does not have the materiel and personnel to win. I do not think they will make a meaningful advance into Russian controlled territory.
I think all levels were somehow involved in the assassination. But I am just not sure how gung ho certain ones were. I am sure it was a very complex argument of plus minus and fallout effects. Still to play out I think.
War crimes.
Both sides have some zealots in command and rank and file. Crimes were committed by both I am sure. A level of patriotism is a good thing. But it can tip over into an excuse for savage behaviour. I don’t know why I tend to think this. I do not even know how this whole thing will play out. But I suspect crimes on both sides will be swept under the rug. I think Russia will remain a superpower at some level after this is over. That may in some way negate investigation and prosecution. Ukraine may be in a terrible situation and have to be rebuilt. Investigation and prosecution may seem irrelevant. Time served. And I do not mean that in a flippant way.
This paragraph is a complete disgrace, with its implication that both sides are equally culpable for the committing of war crimes in Ukraine. There is no equatability or fair comparison between Russian and Ukrainian conduct. This is the sort of Russian apologism/Ukrainian slander you write that makes me angry. It makes you come across as an ignorant fool or a straight-up Russian shill.
This isn’t strictly true. Wagner was fully funded by the Kremlin. Putin actually admitted as much shortly after the mutiny. I assure you that in Putin’s mind, Yevgeny Prigozhin absolutely did answer directly to Putin which, again in Putin’s mind, is exactly the same thing as directly answering to the Russian government.
In Putin’s mind. That’s the problem with dictatorships, kleptocracies and governments that don’t actually run by the rule of law in general; in Putin’s mind Wagner and Prigozhin answered directly to him - right up until they attempted to coup the Russian government/Putin and Putin fled from Moscow to St Petersburg. Just because the Russian government corruptly funded them to do their dirty work overseas doesn’t mean the organization felt or feel that it has to answer to the Putin/the Russian government and look at how quickly the official party line about Wagner turned in circles during and after the coup. Wagner and Prigozhin went from being the elite of Russia - I believe our Komrad called them urban warfare specialists just because they spent most of a year beating their heads against Bakhmut along with the rest of the Russian military - where even the cannon-fodder murderers and rapists recruited into it were a protected hero class who Russian citizens could be sent to jail for “discrediting” to mutinous, treasonous traitors to everything is forgiven, just go to Belarus, stay there and don’t come back, to Prigozhin is freely flying to St Petersburg and Moscow all in a matter of days. It’s enough to make one’s head spin. It certainly has thrown dear Komrad’s head spinning worse than the vodka hangover he had from the day of the mutiny. It’s rather telling that he had his little accident along with other higher ups in Wagner while their private jet was flying from Moscow, the very city he had led a march on to overthrow the government/the military high command/take your pick just two months prior.
As for the Wagner rank and file, regardless of where official funding came from - and let’s be honest, does anyone imagine a PMC created in one of the most corrupt countries in the world that worked largely in some of the most corrupt third world countries prior to the war in Ukraine doesn’t have some extremely shady ‘unofficial’ sources of income* - how much has it turned out that they answer to Putin/the Russian government after their mutiny against the hand that ostensibly fed them? How many of them have shown up in the Russian military returning to fighting the Ukrainians? And how many have gone to Belarus or returned to their roots aiding in the overthrow of governments in Africa for a considerably higher paycheck than they’d be getting even as a contract soldier for Russia?
*Let’s not forget Prigozhin’s catering company billed the Russian military to the tune of $2 billion dollars for ‘services’ during the war. And Christ on a crutch, the corruption just never ends, I came across this checking what the dollar figure was. He was still winning government contracts almost a month after his attempted mutiny:
You don’t know why you tend to think this Komrad? Neither do we Komrad, neither do we. At least we can agree on something in that abortion of a paragraph you wrote.
Superpower? Russia’s not even a great power. Maybe a regional power, if the region is “Russia plus the Caucuses”. Russia is losing to a much smaller country right next to it.
Overall I just don’t think they can do it. Not enough of everything. Especially air power. Defensive and offensive. They also are not acquiring the speed required for deep maneuver attack. One aspect of it is speed. Punch deep fast. Do not give the opponent time for thoughtful maneuver in response. You want to create a level of chaos in the enemy. So they make mistakes then more mistakes as you move in another direction. You need mop up forces. If you are successful, there may be isolated enemy troops behind you here and there that your main punch through bypassed. So you need some depth of the leading line. Ammo, lots and lots of ammo. Continuous supply of it. When you contact the enemy in a fast push you fire heavy. Suppression fire on the move. Even more in Ukraine case. They do not have as much long range and air suppression fire as is usually planned and provided for.
Even in the past few days at Robotyne, where the Ukrainians have seemed to try the maneuver scheme again, it is not fast enough. I saw video of long columns of vehicles coming into the area from the north just a day ago. So maybe the real push is yet to come. They have carved out a deeper pocket just east of Rabotyne. Closer to the major defence lines. Looks like there is a road right down the middle of the pocket? Maybe things are setup now for the real fast move?
It will still be very hard. The pocket is entirely in range of Russian artillery. Russia has long range precision munitions, artillery and air power that has all the rear accumulation area in easy range. Supply will be under heavy attrition. Suppression of Russian artillery covering the pocket seems sparse. But Ukraine may have brought in a lot of artillery that is not publicly known. I hope so. They need heavy suppressive fire.
After seeing that large column. Maybe the real maneuver warfare attack is yet to come. If so they have setup a good start. I hope they have the materiel to make it work.
If Russia has all this artillery and air power that you say will stop the Ukrainian advance, then how come the Ukrainians are advancing? Intense fighting has been going on in this small area for many weeks now.
The Russians have been doing this all along. fall back while trying to take out as much of the opponent as possible. Sometimes they will try and retake the area. When they move forward it is always very slowly. Taking as few losses as possible. Usually it works. If it is planned. Up North it was not planned and they took very heavy losses while retreating, losing huge territory. A few Kilometres is a good trade if you inflict high damage as you give it up. At some point they will change the tactic. Flank attack or try and close off the top of the pocket as much as possible. But in this case it seems the Ukrainians have a large force near the top of the pocket. So it is a tough situation. I am wondering what will happen.
You think glorious Komrad would discredit Russian armed forces by questioning the abilities of their artillery and airpower? Civilians can get jailed for saying such things, Russian Army and VDV generals get shitcanned for saying such things.
In all seriousness though, the effectiveness of Russian artillery has dropped drastically from when the war started when they were firing shells with wild abandon. Komrad still hasn’t acknowledged that Russia has its own shell crisis to deal with, that daily Russian artillery shells fired had dropped to 1/4 of what it was in the final months of Bakhmut compared to the start of that glorious success of Russian arms that bled Ukraine dry pointless waste of Russian lives just to claim they ‘succeeded’ in capturing a strategically valueless town in the name of the sunk cost fallacy. Or acknowledged that two of the major complaints of the commanders of the 58th CAA and 106th Guards Airborne division which got them dismissed of command were the heavy losses that Ukrainian artillery was inflicting on their troops and their superiority in counter-battery operations killing and suppressing Russian artillery.
The Russian air force is a joke and has been shown to be a paper tiger. Ukraine barely had an air force from the start of the war, but it remains undefeated by the Russian air force which hasn’t achieved air superiority after over 550 days and frankly never will. The most effective thing the Russian air force has done is launch long ranged cruise missiles from well inside the safety of their own airspace. Ground attack aircraft are unwilling to do anything more than high speed flights at extremely low level anywhere remotely near the front lines because that is all that they are capable of doing if they don’t want to get shot down by the Ukrainian air defense network.
When it comes to attack helicopters, the Ka-52 which was much vaunted by the Russian air force before the war, they are visually confirmed to have lost almost half of them so far, leading to the Cold War era Mi-24 Hind of Russia’s Afghan War fame becoming more and more of their front-line attack helicopter force. Not that it even matters all that much, from the first days of the war observers were baffled by the way both Russia and Ukraine were using their attack helicopters in an unorthodox and wildly inaccurate way of steeply climbing, firing their rockets at the top of the climb then diving back down to the deck. Turns out this was Warsaw Pact Cold War doctrine for the employment of attack helicopters if air defenses were so intense that they made any other method of their employment suicidal. And that’s the Warsaw Pact Cold War definition of ‘suicidal,’ they were entirely prepared to accept extremely high levels of casualties in the normal course of operations in war with NATO if it produced results.
LMAO! Russians attack such that they take as few losses as possible? The army where every other day a video surfaces with soldiers appealing to leaders back home to save them from the endless “meat attacks” they’re ordered to carry out without adequate support? The army that sends prisoner recruits into attacks just to draw fire so they can figure out where the Ukrainian positions are?
Jesus Christ, I know you see the Russian army through rose-tinted glasses, but try to retain some semblance of a connection to reality.
Russian offense is characterized by identifying Ukrainian positions (often by intentionally drawing fire with unsupported attacks by penal units), blanket those positions with overwhelming artillery fire to force the Ukrainians to retreat or perish, and then move in to take the pulverized area.
Russian defense is not characterized by trading space for enemy casualties. Russian forces at the “zero line” are generally not allowed to retreat on pain of being placed into one of the aforementioned penal units. They are to hold their positions to the end. In theory, they can call on their superior artillery forces to rain death on advancing Ukrainians, but in practice on the Zaporizhzhia front over the past couple months the Russians have been reporting that Ukrainian counter-battery artillery has been inhibiting their fire support, and that the Russian artillery has been having no counter-battery success of its own. This last is not shocking, as the like for like western artillery pieces vs Soviet designs generally have longer range, plus the coming of Storm Shadow & SCALP to the party has apparently freed up some GMLRS fire missions from HIMARS et al for counter-battery duty.
This is based largely on Russian sources reporting on the state of their army. Various milbloggers and actual soldiers in theatre with Telegram channels, whose reports get repeated in English by various Twitter accounts. You need to stop swallowing what propagandists tell you from the comfort of their basement studios and pay more attention to the videos and statements coming from the front lines.
To be fair, the Ka-52s have been playing a significant role in slowing down the Ukrainian armoured advances in the south. At the cost of losing another irreplaceable helicopter every other day. Based on the number they’re visually confirmed to have lost, the number they had at the beginning of the war, and the inevitability of some being down for maintenance at any given time, if they have more than 30-40 of them left in active service it’d be a miracle.
By some measures Russia has already lost this war. Eighteen months in, it is giving up ground, its economy is tanking, there are possibly hundreds of thousands of casualties and, finally, targets in the homeland itself are getting blowed up.
Diplomatically and strategically, it may even be worse. NATO is expanding and Ukraine may gain membership after the Russian withdrawal. Worse, the always tenuous acceptance of Russia in the family of civilized nations is pretty much shattered; which among their neighbors will trust them again?
