I wonder if (as more data on real world performance over years is collected verifying the numbers reported so far keep up) Tesla will offer a middle range upgrade: $9K more for the extra 90 miles to the full 310 mile range and say $4K more for 220 miles range but assured it will stay at 220 for up to 250K miles (accomplished by unlocking just enough to keep it so, and no more, as it degrades)?
Probably not. At the model 3’s production volumes, most likely they will make a separate pack for each and every nameplate capacity they ultimately release. This was probably only a cost savings at the very low volumes for the model S.
I would hope they would design the spacing and structure such that adding more pack modules after purchase would be possible, though, whether it be a Tesla service center installed upgrade or aftermarket.
My mother has a relatively new Prius, with only 7600 miles on it so far, and the dash shows that she’s averaged 49.7 mpg during that time.
Another benefit of the 60 kWh battery that is really a 75, is that it would degrade slower than the 75 unlocked at 75 capacity. Because the narrower charge range, dendrites that form over time inside the cells that are responsible for degradation and internal short circuiting should be lower in 60 than the 75. So it is not a case purely of a manufacturer “making it worse”, but there are legitimate trade offs here. Actually this type of price tiering is very common in the computer chip industry, so I’m not sure why everyone is making such a big fuzz about it. In fact something like this happens in the dino automotive industry as well, given the many examples of car being able to be chipped, or trivially modified to extract more performance. The tradeoff here is a car with less reliability than it came from the factory.
Except that I think most of these vehicles function in a fairly narrow discharge charge range in any case as most owners only drive less than forty miles in a day most days and plug in at night. The much greater range is there to avoid anxiety and to use on rare occasions for most owners. 10 to 15% discharge is 10 to 15% discharge whether it starts from 90 or from 70%.
FWIW I’m fine with my five year old C-Max Energi plug-in hybrid for now. By the time I’m ready again I suspect I’ll be looking at a Volvo all-electric that has self-driving capability. This car will give me time to wait as long as that takes.
In my case, I’m thinking of taking contract jobs far away. I’m single, so the cheapest way for me to go to the job site is to drive there with enough possessions for a few months packed in the back. A model 3 can marginally do this, with the caveat that I’d have to supercharge several times a day. While a hybrid can almost drive all day on a single tank. (550 miles per tank!)
I had been using an old Honda for this, but now that money is starting to roll in from the current gig, I was thinking of a conservative upgrade to a used vehicle. The 5 year TCO of a 5 year old Prius is 22k according to Emund’s, while a new one is 33k. Edmund’s does make some assumptions (I won’t be financing), but it seems clear enough.
The fuel savings are actually lost in the noise. I realized earlier today that a newer car will cost me $1000 a year in additional insurance (mainly since I’d need to carry full coverage in case someone steals the newer car or I crash it). Versus a mere $600 in fuel savings. And I bet the extra cost of a model 3 in comprehensive (unless you want to be on the hook for potentially 35k out of pocket if you total one!) exceeds it’s annual fuel savings, even if you can recharge it’s batteries for free.
One nice perk about hybrids and electric cars - you can be a hobo and sleep in the back whenever you don’t feel like spending $60 on a motel. Just drop the rear seat, pop down a mattress pad, and settle in. You can lie completely flat and the key feature is the climate control can continue to run, with the engine starting intermittently in a hybrid, or a few kilowatt hours consumed from the pack in a Tesla. Also you can keep your phones, laptops, and tablets charged, or power an electric blanket of reasonable wattage if the climate is cold.
Yeah I don’t think an all electric is your best choice. Not all routes have Superchargers.
How much driving do you do each day once you are at site?
If most days are still driving but more typical commuting distances then a used plugin hybrid might be a good choice. A five year old Volt’s 5 year TCO per Edmund’s is $23,274, not much different than the Prius. They are just much more pleasant and fun to drive, especially on long highway runs, than the Prius is. Downside is only that the Volt’s tank is fairly small so more stops for gas. The C Max can go much farther per tank but has a smaller battery for day to day commutes and its battery bumps up into the back storage area cutting down cargo capacity (and the ability to lay flat to sleep I guess). It also only came out as in 2013 so can’t do a five year old model but for 2013 models the C Max Energi, the Volt, and the Prius all are in the $24 to 27K 5 year TCO range per Edmunds. Close enough that other factors than cost alone should be the deciders.
I wonder what the 5 year TCO on a used five year old Tesla Model S is? Edmunds does not have the data.
Electric engines are also much simpler than internal combustion ones. Over the life of the car you should theoretically save a lot of money on maintenance. The problem with that theory is that IC engines are so reliable at this point that they already last longer than the rest of the car. Most cars are replaced because the interior/exterior is trashed and they lack modern features, not because the engine dies.
The Prius does have one significant advantage over the Volt that isn’t in the Edmund’s data. It (somewhat surprisingly) is actually one of the most reliable modern cars available. Here's How Car Maintenance Costs Increase With Mileage
A couple of interesting things in this data.
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For ICE cars, the cost of repairs are, on average, at least equal to the cost of fuel.
(150k/34 * 2.75 = $12130, vs 11k for repairs for Toyota and 14k for the next automaker on the list…)
And one annoyance with this is that this is over an infinite timespan. While the cost of fuel is consistent for a car that has been repaired, it’s entirely possible to be the unlucky guy who has engine blow 5000 miles out of warranty, then the transmission, and so on, and have this happen for every car you own your whole life. However, you can do your own repairs at least for a lot less, swapping in whole engines from totaled vehicles, while you can’t really get out of paying the market price for gasoline. -
Toyotas and Scions are statistically much better, telling me that as a company they have better design and manufacturing processes.
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And the Prius beats everything. Note these are averages, the Prius has several very expensive internal components that can fail at any time, they just don’t for most people.
I currently drive an old Honda with 120 horsepower, about the same as a Prius. I have never floored the accelerator in 10 years, I just don’t drive like that…
Ah right. I missed that.
Were any EVs and PHEVs (like the Volt) included in that data? I can’t find a complete ranking of all models in that article. There is a full list of brands though, and Tesla isn’t on it.
My mechanic is basically ‘uber for mechanics’. They are going to not have data on cars that can’t be worked on by shade tree mechanics, and cars like the Volt are very new and haven’t had time to even need much work done. The Prius is 20 years old and there are millions of them out there, while there aren’t that many Volts. And the Teslas are rarer still, and Tesla will not sell parts for most important systems to third parties, so they essentially can’t be worked on by mechanics. (this will change with the model 3, I think, because so many will be produced that aftermarket parts will be feasible)
So it would be accurate to say that reliability data is not really known. Which makes those cars a poor bet - if they turn out to be as reliable as the average car, they will cost far more money to keep on the road than the Prius, making the small savings by fueling with electricity instead of gasoline moot. If my mechanic’s data is anywhere close to correct, the cost of a car is primarily determined by upfront cost, with repairs coming second, and fuel a distant third.
By the way, make sure to factor in all rebates & subsidies when comparing purchase price. This article, for example, talks about getting a brand new Nissan Leaf for a net price of $18,000 after all discounts, tax rebates and incentives. Obviously a Leaf won’t work for you, but there are other PHEVs and EVs that are eligible for those rebates and incentives.
Like I said before, electric motors are mechanically simpler than IC engines and are inherently more reliable. There’s no oil or air filters to change. No timing belts or spark plugs or fan belts that can break. Maintaining an electric car ought to be significantly cheaper than an IC car.
Reasons this is completely untrue :
a. An electric car has thousands of dollars of unique, one of a kind electronics boards needed to even let it move. For lower production volume vehicles, there will not be aftermarket replacements, and over time, high power electronics fail often. The power supply is the least reliable thing in most desktop computers, and the inverters and chargers on an electric car are subject to a much rougher environment of vibration and higher temperatures. Corrosion, failing electrolytic capacitors, cracked solder joints from vibration - there are many ways they can fail, and each board is going to cost thousands from the manufacturer for the part.
b. GM designs their products to fail soon after warranty, as evidenced by the data linked above. 80% higher maintenance costs than Toyota, at an average of $18,000. Maybe the Volt is an exception to their rule of poor quality, but again, it’s more probable that it’s not an exception.
c. Teslas are so expensive that it’s moot if they don’t need much maintenance, it still costs a fortune if anything breaks.
d. Every EV has a ticking bomb of replacement costs - the battery. GM lists their’s at $15,000.
I’m all for EVs, but don’t kid yourself, electronics aren’t cheap and they aren’t easy to make aftermarket replacements for if they are dependent on firmware.
An IC engine has more electronics than an electric engine. They have all sorts of sensors and the combustion is controlled by the onboard computer.
Needless to say the reliability of an electric automotive engine has little to do with a computer power supply.
A conspiracy theory, eh?
Those are contradictory statements. If it costs a fortune if anything breaks then not needing much maintenance is not moot.
Yes, the battery is the great unknown of EV. For every other component they are much more reliable than an IC engine.
Anyone that has had to replace an O2 sensor or onboard computer will definitely agree with your statement that electronics aren’t cheap. That’s why it is a good thing EVs need fewer of them.
You don’t know anything of what you are talking about. I actually have been doing firmware and design of high power inverters for the last 2 years. I brought up the desktop computer example because it’s a common thing you’d have experience with. High power electronics are totally unrelated to low power control electronics, which are generally reliable. I don’t have anything else to say, if you’re not going to respect me as a poster, I’m not going to bother engaging. High power electronics do wear inside, the flow of current causes wear to components, and the high voltages mean that a great number of additional failure modes can happen. They also tend to fail catastrophically because of the high voltage, several times in the last year I’ve had to deal with a fried board, and we are dealing with very small production volumes. And they have to deal with very high thermal loads - electric car inverters and chargers need liquid cooling, and this can fail or corrode in numerous ways.
Eventually, there will be aftermarket electric car inverters and chargers for all the commonly sold models, and so it will be possible to keep them on the road for 20 years for a reasonable cost, same as IC vehicles. But that’s not the case now.
Not much of a bomb for many folks. For one thing, the prices I’ve seen on replacement packs are closer to $4000 now (coming down every year), and on my PHEV, the battery pack is under warranty for life to the first owner (and Hyundai isn’t the only maker that does that).
That’s the Volt’s battery. The Bolt is 15,000, and it’s not going to drop below that for years. It’s enormously larger, the whole car is built around it, etc.
Well what treis is saying is pretty much what I read the experts claim as well, so maybe a bit more than making an appeal to your authority on this is called for.
I personally have no authority here but as a long time follower of the trend even I know that high power inverters (and DC-DC converters) have been part of hybrid vehicles, like the Prius, all along. Yes they can fail and are expensive to replace when they do (covered under 8 year/100K - or 10 year/150K even - warranties in many cases) and yes thermal management with liquid cooling is important to reduce that risk of failure. The failure rate of these systems has been very very low, as evidenced by the long term reliability of the Prius line. Prius vehicles and their high power inverters and converters have been on the road for well over ten years and used as taxis putting on hundreds of thousands of miles (even 1.5 million km, that’s over 900,000 miles in one documented case). It seems that the designers and engineers of these systems are able to create systems with greater reliability than you are over your past two years doing firmware and design of high power inverters. That’s not a ding on you: they have many more working on it for longer with much bigger budgets and it is a mission critical item.
Tesla’s battery degradation data has already been shared. Its lasting 20 years plus seems likely and other makers should be able to achieve that as well. A failure these cars’ batteries also does not mandate replacement of the entire pack. They are built of multiple individual modules which can be replaced individually if ever needed. There is zero expectation of having to replace a complete Bolt battery pack, for example, ever.
Lastly of course is the in-progress rapid drop in the cost of batteries, already nearly 80% less than it was just seven years ago.
It is completely true that electric motors are mechanically simpler and inherently more reliable than ICEs. The power inverters/converters that support them have a long track record of high reliability. The batteries seem like they will last longer than much of the rest of the vehicle and the costs of replacing them is getting less and less.
The biggest negative to getting one is in fact that the technology surrounding them is improving so rapidly. Will you continue to be satisfied with what you have, that works as well as it ever did, when the vehicle that is released three years later is so much better?