Here’s something interesting I worked out today. Now that the Chevy Bolt and Model 3 semi-affordable electric cars are available, one might wonder how much they’d be saving on gasoline if they bought one.
In constant 2015 dollars, the average gasoline price trends around $2.75.
Combined average mpg for the newest model Prius = 56 mpg. People do get the EPA rated mileage of a Prius routinely, assuming reasonably careful driving.
So it costs an average $2.75 in fuel to go 56 miles in a Prius. In a Tesla or Bolt, they need about 350 watt hours per mile. Source : Tesla forums, lifetime averages.
At 90% charging efficiency, 388 watt-hours, or 0.388 kwh, to go 1 mile.
or 21.7 kWh to go 56 miles.
national average electricity cost = 12 cents per kWh
so $2.61 in “fuel” to go 56 miles in a Tesla or Bolt
So for most people, assuming average electric prices in their state, and given that gasoline prices are pretty much the same in every state, it’s going to cost almost the same to operate an electric car as it costs to run a Prius.
Also, in cases where the local electric rates are lower, there’s the Prime version of the Prius with 25 miles of battery only range, and it’s only 27k-33k instead of the 35-40k of the model 3 and Bolt…
Ok, using the new information : it would cost $1.88 to go the same distance in a Bolt you could go in a Prius for $1.88.
The cost difference between the vehicles is around $7500. So if you drive 15,000 miles a year, you save $233 bucks a year on fuel. Would just take 32 years to pay off a $7500 price difference…
Now, there are some assumptions here. I can’t really guess what the maintenance cost differences are, yeah, the Prius is very complicated. It has batteries and cooling and pretty much the same electronics as a Bolt except it also has an engine and a very complex transmission. On the other hand, Toyota has been producing them for 20 years.
You’re also comparing relatively high performance electric vehicles with the wimpy-engined Prius. It doesn’t change the fuel economy much, but an electric vehicle with a power output more comparable with the Prius will cost less than a Bolt or Tesla. So maybe 10-15 years before the price difference is made up for in fuel cost savings.
Prius
53 kW
163 Nm
Tesla
270 kW
440 Nm
Bolt
something in between, I didn’t take notes and can’t be bothered to search again.
See here a comparison of fuel costs for a Bolt and a Prius. Link. The annual fuel cost for a Bolt is estimated at $550, and $750 for a Prius.
But let’s remember, the cost of fuel is never the sole decision on which car to buy. Some are concerned about car size, others about environmental impact, others want something sporty. Nobody considers just the cost of fuel.
Besides, EVs save big on maintenance. It’s quite possible that with aggressive regeneration, EVs may never need brake service during a reasonable lifetime of the car. Hybrids are close but can’t say that. EVs never need oil changes, transmission service, or radiator flushes. A gently driven Prius, if serviced at a dealership, probably costs a few to several hundred dollars a year in maintenance. An EV is almost certainly half of that cost, maybe less.
ETA: and let’s be real: probably every EV on the road, from a Tesla to an e-Golf, is a better drive than a Prius.
I came to the same conclusion recently, after our Honda Fit was totaled in an accident. We were getting close to 40 mpg on the Fit. Using current gas prices and electricity rates, an EV like the Bolt would be about 25% lower cost per mile. A 50 mpg hybrid would be about the same as the EV. With these numbers I could not justify buying a new EV.
However, the big question is whether the current low gas price is the new normal, or if it will go back up to the 2010-2015 level (i.e. around $3.50).
I ended up buying a used Chevy Volt, which cost only slightly more than a used Prius of similar vintage & condition. Technically it’s a plug-in hybrid, but it has enough battery range for the daily commute + typical weekday errands. (We get 30 to 40 miles, mostly depending on whether we use the AC or not.) It hasn’t burnt any gasoline in 2 or 3 weeks now.
The problem with that metric is that the Leaf has very short range, basically the definition of range anxiety. This in turn limit’s it’s value, because if you live somewhere where the 60-80 usable miles of the Leaf covers nearly every trip, you won’t be driving as many miles every year and thus the savings on fuel won’t be much.
But yes, apples to apples, the Prius does not provide the same driving experience as a Bolt or Tesla because of it’s anemic acceleration.
On the plus side, I just glanced at autotrader. Used Leafs are very, very cheap. They are listed at 8-10k for a 2015 model.
Unfortunately the Leaf has a bad reputation for battery degradation. I don’t know how widespread the issue is, but the fact is that Nissan only guarantees <20% loss over 5 years. Which means after 5 years, they’d only replace the battery under warranty if the 73 mile (EPA rating) range drops to below 59 miles.
This is not typical for all EVs though. Other manufacturers provide more margin on their batteries. Batteries last longer if you don’t use the full capacity (i.e. never fully charged, never fully depleted). The Chevy Volt, for example, has a 16 kWh battery but only uses 10 kWh or so.
Don’t buy an electric to save money at this point. Buy it a social investment. My Prius is getting old and has paid for itself in fuel cost savings but when I bought it I doing 20k miles per year and gas was very pricey. If I knew I was going to have a steady well paying job next year I would buy the new “cheap” Tesla pretty much for the coolness of the vehicle. It appeals to my inner geek so much. But instead I will probably buy a slightly used vehicle in the $22k range. That is about what my Prius cost new in 2010.
Ah. Well, you can grab a 2010 or 2011 Prius for about 10k with under 75k mileage, per autotrader. For 500+ miles of range instead of 56. Just slightly more cost per mile, trading off for immensely more range. And those ‘conventional’ priuses use very durable battery technology, since they have to charge and discharge several times in a normal drive. Apparently, it’s not uncommon to see 200k miles on a Prius, often on the original pack. (and pack replacement is a mere $2400 for a new pack, $800 for a rebuilt)
Leaf, by the way, is listed at .34 kWh per mile. So a 54 mile trip, compared to a generation 3 Prius, would cost $2.20, compared to $2.75 for the 10 year average on gas. So the gas burning vehicle costs 25% more to operate. And requires more engine maintenance in theory. Though realistically, I mean, you change the oil every 15k miles (high mileage synthetic) for $50. If you have 150,000 miles of engine life before a major failure, that’s only $500 in oil and filters. $300 if you wait for a sale on the high mileage synthetic oil.
150,000 miles on an EV battery…is not great. Like you said, the Leafs will probably do terrible. Model S supposedly hold up well, for the few that have gotten that far, but nobody knows about long term performance for the newer, cheaper EVs.
Note that you appear to be comparing EPA values for the Prius with “reasonably careful driving” to real-world anecdotes for Tesla owners with somewhat of a lead foot, operating a much more powerful, larger vehicle. The same forum thread you link to has more careful Tesla owners reporting lifetime averages of 280 Wh/mi or better.
Also note that the Tesla model 3 has a reported 75kW-hr battery and an EPA mileage of 310 miles, which would work out to 242 Wh/mi.
Not that this changes your overall point much - given current costs of fuel and electricity, an electric car isn’t going to save a whole lot of fuel costs over an efficient hybrid, and isn’t likely to recoup it’s larger upfront cost.
Of course, if cost was the only concern, you’d be better off buying a used small, 5-10 years old compact car (Corolla, Civic, Fit, etc.) instead of either a new hybrid or an EV, and save the remainder for extra gas money & repairs.
Another thing - some electricity companies provide time-of-use plans, which means they charge much less for nighttime electricity use. EVs can be configured to only charge at night. In some places the night-time rate is less than 7 cents per kWh.
Or buy it for the enjoyment and refinement. Today I drove a gasoline-powered car for the first time since I got the Volt, and it felt so primitive and unpleasant. The discrete shifts -especially the clunky downshift when I need more power. The noise. The vibration even when stopped at a light. I could do without all that.
You’re right. I should be comparing EPA numbers to EPA numbers. That makes the model 3 1.7 times better than the Prius, apples to apples. 70% more fuel cost is a big increase in efficiency. And that’s assuming 12 cents a kWh. Where I live, it’s 8.5 and because the power generation companies compete, it stays at 8.5.
So $1.15 in electric “fuel” to do what a Prius needs $2.75 to do.
Over 250k miles*, $5133 in electricity. $12,276 in gasoline burnt in a Prius.
Of course, the pack replacement, assuming cost of $175 a kWh, would be $13,000. A Prius would possibly need a main engine/dual input CVT replacement around the 250k mile mark, though. Not to mention both vehicles would have worn out interiors.
If I am reading this right, in order for the Model 3 to possibly be cheaper, it would need to be within $7,143 of the cost of a Prius. This ignores the time value of money completely.
And the only way a 248k mile comparison is really valid is with autonomous vehicles.
*(if the model 3 pack has 310 miles of range, an 80% discharge cycle is 248 miles. If there are 1000 cycles before pack depletion (average for normal lithium batteries), 248,000 miles)
The top of the line Prius is the Toyota Prius Four Touring and I’d strongly wager that appointed as nicely as possible it is not as nicely appointed (and certainly not likely to be as nice of a drive) as the Tesla Model 3 is to be.
The cost of that nicely appointed but still not quite comparable Prius? $34,151. Maybe more if you pick some accessories and such. The Tesla 3 starts at $35,000 but figure you get the extra cost color and the $5000 “Enhanced Autopilot Package” which right now gives semi-autonomous driving capacity … you are still within that $7,143. Chevy Bolt loaded too. (To be completely fair of course you can appoint the Tesla higher yet and push its price up.)
Yes you can get a Prius for less than the fully loaded Four Touring model … but apples to as close to apples as possible.
Oh there is real world actual data on Tesla battery degradation - it seems to be 23 miles per 100K driven. So down maybe 58 miles of range after 250K driven - using the 310 start point that would mean still 258 miles of range after 250K driven. Start with the 220 range option and it might mean 168 miles of range still left.
Here’s an interesting rub though. Tesla did this cool thing for those fleeing Hurricane Irma - they magically extended the range of the batteries. What it highlighted though is that the smaller range and longer range models apparently actually have the same batteries in them with the lower range ones’ range constrained by software.
So, if Tabarrok is correct, will an owner be able to pay for a software upgrade to release more capacity in their 250K vehicle years down the road, magically increasing the range from a degraded 168 up to a more than initially purchased 258?
Interesting comparisons. In Montreal we are paying about $1.25 a liter for gas and only about 6c./KWH for electricity, so the savings would be large. However, I currently drive less that 2000 mi/year, so I won’t be changing cars soon.
Not coincidentally, a lot of electric vehicles (pure and PHEV) get at $7500 rebate at tax time for the first purchaser.
But yeah, “saving money on fuel” isn’t currently a great argument for these vehicles, although my electricity cost is around half of the rate given. My favorite feature of my PHEV is that I don’t have to go get gas all the time.. I put about 18K miles on the car each year, but only have to fill the tank every other month in the summer and 2-3 times that often in the winter (the gas engine heats the car, so it uses more gas in cold weather). I get access to special lanes in some places, special parking in other, and I’m not contributing very much to carbon emissions because my car drives most of its miles electrically. These things are worth more to me than the slightly higher total cost of ownership.
I’m not sure that’s a correct deduction. Surely that would have been spotted by now by anyone doing a physical inspection of the two models? As I understand it, the last 10% or so of battery capacity is locked to prevent complete discharge, and it may be that final 10% which Tesla unlocked.
It’s classic price discrimination - rather than charging the same price to everyone, they charge less to more price-conscious customers, and charge more to those who really want the full 75 kWh capacity.