This is all a little different than what I was talking about, which was retrospectively judging how valuable a player was, when he was in fact on the field. If factors like you describe were influencing how he played when he was on the field, that would be subsumed into the overall assessment of his actual, as-played value.
I’m skeptical of the idea that high-level players are modifying their own on-field performance because of bonus clauses. I think it’s more likely that players and teams seek contracts based on their concepts of player value (which may well be mistaken), but the player’s actual value would be the same regardless. If he really is modifying his own approach contrary to the team’s interest (making it less likely for his team to win), then he is, and will appear in the record as, a worse player.
Managers certainly have misused players to the detriment of their teams, and this is visible in team records. Part of the advancement in baseball metrics has been the (nascent) understanding of how to subtract managers, and other players, from player records.
The only performance-based incentive clause that I’ve found that isn’t based on number of appearances (games played, innings pitched) is A-Rod’s incentive to reach particular career HR benchmarks. Are things like “$100,000 for 40 HRs” even allowed anymore?
I don’t think they are, but I can’t find a cite for that at the moment. I think the only bonuses allowed are for playing time and maybe awards (MVP, Cy Young, etc.)
Bonuses for BBWAA awards will not be allowed starting in 2013 (BBWAA will take them off their ballots if they do). There are also the typical “make to the ASG”, “win the World Series”, etc. There are even “win LCS MVP” bonuses.
If I had a vote, I would vote for Ichiro as a first ballot Hall of Famer, and I’m pretty sure he’ll BE a first ballot Hall of Famer without me.
But if we go by numbers… you know, Bernie WIlliams has a better on base percentage and a better slugging percentage. My eyes tell me Ichiro is a better defensive outfielder than Bernie, but otherwise, Bernioe seems at LEAST as deserving of being a first ballot Hall of Famer.
But despite the “New York Media Bias” I hear about constantly, practically nobody sees Bernie as a first ballot Hall of Famer. Indeed, he’s seen as a borderline Hall of Famer at best.
By stats he is borderline, but I give extra credit for two reasons. First his japan stats don’t get equal credit, but shouldn’t be completely ignored either. I don’t think there is any question that if he the majors at 22 he would be well past 3000 hits and possibly making a run at Rose The other is that the hall is about celebrating greatness, and Ichiro is the greatest ever at what he does. same reason that Koufax and Ryan are no doubt hall of gamers as opposed to more borderline (though still likely in) cases.
Honestly, I think Bernie deserves more HoF discussion than he’s received. I don’t think he should make it, but he had a fine career and at least deserves to be in the conversation.
His four gold gloves aside, Bernie Williams was not a good fielder. He was average at best during his prime, and doesn’t even hold a candle to Ichiro with the glove. That’s why, despite being a superior hitter (no matter how many hits Ichiro ended up with) AND playing for 6 more seasons, Bernie has lower overall career value than Ichiro (47 WAR compared to 50 WAR).
Good hitter for a CF, mediocre (or worse) fielder, didn’t add much with his legs, either.
I do, too. It’s possible he’ll get some discussion as part of a weak class, but he seems to be one of those guys who doesn’t feel like a Hall of Famer to a lot of people.
Williams is in an odd position - part of it is that he played a middle-of-the-road defensive position, and HOF voters don’t really know what to do with third basemen and CF’s. Part of it is that he didn’t really have that long a career, and he also wasn’t very durable during the middle of his career, so he didn’t get close to 3,000 hits. And part of it is that he was good at a bunch of stuff but not great in any phase of the game - he didn’t post eye-popping batting averages or home run numbers (or Bondsian walks) but did a lot of everything. (And writers still underrate walks - if he traded 300 walks for singles, he wouldn’t have been a whole lot better, but a .327 career average with 2600+ hits looks a lot better than a .297 career average with 2300+ hits).
First off, I think by the time he’s done, Ichiro will be a first-ballot HoF’er.
To address a hijack, Bernie Williams missed more than 19 games per year during his 7-year statistical peak (1996-2002). It’s a testament to how good he was when he was able to play that he’s even being discussed. For me, his lack of reliability and his unimpressive career hit total swing the pendulum to Not a Hall of Famer.
Always interesting to throw up some generic numbers:
Ichiro: 50.5 WAR
Jim Edmonds: 68.1
Bernie Williams: 47.8
The number for Edmonds is striking, but if you think about it it’s not THAT surprising; he was a terrific defensive player who hit a lot of home runs.
Looking at the sabermetric stats I am shocked at how badly they rate Williams’s defensive abilities. WAR basically claims Williams was the worst defensive outfielder of his time, while maintaining that he was as valuable a hitter as Edmonds; the entire difference you see above is defense. I admit to being mildly skeptical of this; I think WAR has a propensity for evening out team performance for every team and in so doing, really screwing up some individual numbers.
The Yankee championship teams of 1996-2003 are consistently, year in and year out, rated as bad defensive teams. While Derek Jeter’s being overrated is a famous case, I really have trouble buying the notion that the Yankees were winning year after year with Triple-A calibre fielding. They sure as hell didn’t LOOK like a bad defensive team to me - yeah, Jeter was and is poor, but they had some pretty sharp glove men out there too, and I just can’t buy the idea that a team can be consistently excellent, always near the top of the league in run prevention, with atrocious defense. I suspect WAR is wrong here, and I suspect that as a consequence it might be really wrong about Bernie Williams.
I’m always re-amazed when I go back and look at Edmonds’ numbers. His 6 year stretch that started at age 30 is pretty impressive. His hit total is going to keep him out though - voters just aren’t going to want to let in a guy with fewer than 2000 hits. And looking at Bernie’s numbers after Edmonds’ alleviates a lot of my anti-Yankee bias - Bernie does deserve to be in the discussion. Those numbers in CF go a great deal towards making up for his less-than-stellar fielding.
Bernie Williams was known for having a bad arm. He could run and track down balls pretty well, especially once he got a head of steam going, but he couldn’t throw. The latter half of his career he also had injuries that made his throwing arm even worse.
IMHO, Ichero is a lock for the HOF. I don’t know how a voter would keep him off his ballot, but a small minority will.
He has been remarkably consistent over the 10 year span in Seattle, 200 hits a season is tough to do, yet he’s done it like no other person I can think of except Pete Rose. To think what his stats would be if he came over as a kid and got to play for another 6-7 years, his numbers would be staggering.
But aside from his offensive skills, his defensive skills make him one of the top 5 complete players over the last decade. He has the best outfield arm I’ve seen since Dave Parker. An absolute cannon. I think he’s great, and I’d be shocked if there was any discussion of him NOT going to the HOF. If he quit today, he’s a lock 5 years from now.
Ty Cobb had nine, but while playing markedly shorter seasons. He averaged 224 hits per 162 games for his career, pretty close to Ichiro but over 3000 games.
In terms of hits per game, as of a couple of years ago Ichiro was #1 all-time, but his competition was entirely from the turn of the century. It’s possible that by now he’s dropped out of that spot, but only barely. He does have the advantage of starting his career in his prime, but either way you have to say he’s one of a kind. Cobb and Pete Browning and, like, Willie Keeler weren’t playing the same game he’s been playing, but he’s a match for them where none of his contemporaries (or anywhere near contemporaries) comes close.
