Lack of professionalism in the Officer Corps and NCOs is killing them on the battlefield.
Stalin had spent a lot of his free time leading up to 1938 executing thousands of military people - the so-called “Great Purge”. After all, he had signed documents (such as the Molotov-Ribbentropp pact) with the Germans stating they’d be friends and split Poland. He kept at least enough brilliant tacticians such as Zhukov and Vasilevsky so when Operation Barbarossa blew right through Ukraine he still had these generals for the big turning point Battle of Stalingrad.
Hitler’s generals had a rather high rate of dying or committing suicide. I want Leningrad! “It’s really cold and they won’t surrender.” Moscow then! “We’re working on a plan.” Then you better get Stalingrad as we need the oil and it’s named for Stalin as you may know!
Germany’s lofty goals, due to supply line issues (plus again it was really cold - even for Volgograd) were triumphed by Zhukov et al and Germany basically not only lost the Eastern Front but to all intents and purposes, WWII. D-day would occur some time later as much to liberate France, Belgium, Netherlands as to try and get to Berlin before the Russians did. The Hammer & Sickle was raised first yet we’ve all been great friends since.
Yeah. I don’t get this either. That number is anbout equal to all American war time casualties, from the Revolutionary war through the present day, barring the Civil War. How they can do that and not have the people rise up is something that I think those of us who have never experienced a totalitarian state can really understand.
Ever since the Afghan war conscription has been a touchy subject in Russia. Officially, conscripts are not allowed in combat. This was made obvious with the invasion of Kursk; the troops there were conscripts, i.e. doing their service without coming in harm’s way, or so Russian leadership thought.
Reality is of course another matter. From wiki (link goes to a page about the Russian Mothers):
In late February 2022, during the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, the Committee was contacted by soldiers’ parents, who said that their sons carrying out military service had been sent near the Ukrainian border or had been forced to sign contracts for army service.
I have a hard time parsing this: Beta was considered the superior system but ended up losing to VHS. Is Russia Beta or VHS in your analogy? Because pre-war, I think that not only Putin but the whole rest of the world thought that the superior Russian military would be home for Easter.
My understanding as to the whys of this is, even beyond the totalitarianism, its just that the bulk of the grunts getting ground down on the front are ethnic minorities and former convicts. I forget where I read this, but apparently the government is being careful NOT to put to much heavy war pressure on areas like Moscow and St. Petersburg. This can be from selective recruitment (“we’ve already filled our quota from volunteers looking for the bonuses from Bashkiria!”) and/or rotating good Russian lads to backline support. Driving supply trucks or even firing artillery instead of serving as front-line meat-grinder infantry.
This tactic could erode with time if Russian manpower continues to get stretched. But at least for now, so the argument goes, Putin has managed to dodge cascades of casualties in more politically sensitive regions. Look how careful he has been NOT to call for a full formal mobilization of the reserves.
Putin controls the media. To start with, the enemy is “The West” and that goes over pretty well. NATO is controlled by the Americans/CIA/MI6/Germany and on and on - all that is pretty much true - then you add to it almost every country bordering them is in NATO. I highly doubt Putin thought Sweden and Finland would join it, but that’s just how insidious and scheming NATO is.
Ukraine’s president is run by a comedian and a Jew. Both are true - and in fact Zelenskyy was in some kind of satire/comedy where he played the President of Ukraine.
The “liberation of ethnic Russians” has a grain of truth to it. In Ukraine and the Baltic republics especially Russians are not generally liked and live (at least in Ukraine) in the areas that Russia has already taken / annexe / run sham elections in. Putin also uses language like we are liberating them from Nazis yet if you’re Russian and bought in to his message thus far, Nazis it is.
Then he’s got the nationalistic message. That covers casualties, KIA, the price of everything and the collapse of the rouble.
Then there’s the ban on protests, were you so inclined. Yet it’s not a ban - you may apply for a protest that will be scheduled at someplace at sometime and attended by OMON - the cameo wearing special police.
As a foreigner even back in 2015 when the protests were about things like Crimea, I saw the rise of the OMON police. Very commonly in St. Petersburg the protests were in front of one of the big malls / shopping centers on Nevsky. So kinda like protest ng in front of Macy’s Heritage Square. Again, as a foreigner I had to keep my distance to continue living there.
So in short, control the message, blame everything on outside agents, punish and crush dissent.
Argh. HERALD not Heritage Square.
…walks away muttering it’s not even a square - it’s a triangle like Times’ Square…
Oh absolutely, that was definitely my opinion pre-war as well, and Ukraine’s performance promptly turned all of that conventional wisdom on its head. Russia has numerical superiority in bodies and equipment and artillery, but the quality and leadership is awful. Nobody would’ve ever predicted Ukraine could’ve retaken Kherson and Kharkhiv but it happened, and more could’ve been achieved if the West weren’t so timid about military aid.
As far as the Betamax/VHS comparison it’s not exactly perfect, but outside the battlefield, Russia is outperforming and prevailing in propaganda, diplomacy, coercion in ways that reverse the disadvantage of their rotten and poorly led military. If the West armed Ukraine like we could, they’d have forced Russia to terms last year. But we trembled at the word “nukes”, we dithered and delayed and then sent tiny amounts of equipment, and now the opportunity is squandered.
I took a look at the wiki on NATO:
One takeaway was my surprise that seven countries joined in 2004 (if they have a GDP have they ponied up the 2%?).
That was GW Bush’s time when Tony Blair was the Poodle and Putin was “pootie-poot” and the war(s) the USA were engaged in were about revenge then liberating Afghanistan and revenge and liberating Iraq. Freedom!
So Article 5 (aka casus fœderis - case for the alliance)
It commits each member state to consider an armed attack against one member state, in the areas defined by Article 6, to be an armed attack against them all. Upon such attack, each member state is to assist by taking “such action as [the member state] deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area.”
Well that is either very specific in terms of the NA (North Atlantic) in NATO ot sufficiently vague to include everyone. BTW, Article 6 apparently eliminates Hawaii but includes the other 49 states. Not like anyone would ever attack Hawaii.
NATO’s articles fall apart if tested and they don’t even have a cool building on the East River in central Manhattan. At least China and Russia do not get to veto anything.
2% isn’t a subscription to NATO, it’s a policy commitment on a country’s defence expenditure (much of which will be spent in their own country).
All the former Warsaw Pact countries are on or above the 2% level, the laggards being in the West -Belgium, Portugal, Spain, Italy, Slovenia and Croatia.
One big weakness for Russia is Russian’s inorderly fondness for alcohol. It sems the only one not drinking is Putin himself.
Which was one of the reasons he was chosen for the post of president after the embarrassing experiences with Boris Yelzin. It is such a pity this did not work out as well as expected. His policies have been anything but sober.
Aye, that and everything else you corrected me on about the “Continuation War” and such. Apparently (as per wiki) the Molotov-Ribbentropp pact had a “secret” clause about the USSR trying to annex Finland. I really do not think that pact - to invade and divide Poland - was anything less than a secret itself.
Nonetheless, Stalin fell for it. The USSR would throw lots of men and munitions and they went back on forth on gaining ground fighting Finland, who themselves had asked for help yet no countries near them were willing to get involved in a war with the USSR. It was a brilliant tactical move by Ribbentropp to let the USSR use their Northern armies and weak air force against Finland - and display for Hitler the USSR’s capabilities - before the super-super-secret plan of Barbarossa was pulled off.
Then the Nazi’s would come to Finland’s aid, and tell them to get Karelia back and assist us in Leningrad while we land in Lapland and cut off the trucks ans such coming from USA/UK aid by taking Archangel. Hitler had at lease one victory celebration in Leningrad cancelled due to not yet taking the city - and the Nazi’s did not cut off that aid (it’s cold in Lapland!)
So the can’t-win-for-losing Finns fought against the USSR, with the Nazis and at the end of the war still had to cede Karelia and other places, pay reparations to the USSR and probably apologize. They did not help the folks in Leningrad other than they did not follow German demands to bomb the place. That (not helping in Lapland or otherwise assisting in the taking of Leningrad) might also have kept the Germans from cutting off USA/UK supply lines yet at -30C very few armies can do anything.
Sorry to be that guy, yet inordinately.
I only visited Bucharest, Romania for an eclipse yet while I was pretty sure Russia wasn’t at the top (I thought the USA would be), where is Ireland, Australia?
Yeltsin (from Ukraine) was rather well known as a drunk yet he was like the life of the party. It did not go over well with the Politburo when, after a visit to NASA in Florida, he made an unscheduled stop at some supermarket and was visibly amazed at the vast variety of things, especially Pudding Pops (thanks Bill Cosby). The news in the USSR tried to make it that it was all a setup and Americans do not have supermarkets as vast and plentiful as Mat Rossiya.
Putin is scary as hell because he always has a blank expression or the ‘cat-just-eaten-the-mouse’ grin/smirk. When George W Bush (another non-drinker) met him he looked into his eyes and got a sense of his soul. Putin, meanwhile, looked at a moron and if neither he nor Obama or Biden were lookin’ into souls, he’s got a friend/(employee?) coming into the White House soon.
Just a few nitpicks: Yeltsin was from the Urals and the NASA center and grocery store he visited were in Texas.
Thanks, the Yeltsin / Ural correction seems rather large, as I thought he signed off/suggested/whatever “gifting” Crimea to either Ukraine SSR or Crimea SSR (not sure about the republic suffixes). He’s the only leader I can think who could have played a part in that.
The port at Sevastopol is eminently necessary to Russia. They were paying like fifty roubles a year to “rent” it yet I cannot fault Putin for taking Crimea (from a military perspective) back in 2014.
So Yeltsin visited NASA in Texas and all he saw was that and a supermarket? Oh well.
To answer the OP, one thing that others already mentioned is that the attacking invader generally has less morale than the defending side, simply because the latter side feels more fighting spirit by necessity and also more moral justification.
Inordinate, that is correct.
I think it was Nikita Khrushchev, and the whole episode is still a bit misterious. Here is an account. You will find many more in the internet with a search engine. Good luck finding out which ones are recent Putin propaganda and which ones are serious.
I have trouble believing any list of countries’ alcohol consumption where Russia drinks less than Germany. It’s been over 20 years since I was last in Russia (and do not expect to ever go back) but: no. Simply no.
I have documented evidence, somewhere, that the sale of Ру́сский Станда́рт (Russian Standard Vodka) and Oxota beer (8%!) had a dramatic fall in sales after I left the country (also like you, forever) in 2015.
To try and stay on topic (and I’m guilty of going all over here - sorry!) I don’t see drunkenness or “I-needa-drink” (been there) kind of mentality is a weakness. Russia/USSR (ETA: military) have never been a nation of drunkards and these soldiers may not have much motivation to do a Janurary land-grab, but they just want to go home and have their shots of vodka in relative peace.
2015, huh? You may find this article (from 2023) interesting. And I think it is very much on topic. Corruption + drunkenness = incompetence.
If any leader in Russia is incompetent it is Putin. Do KGB/NKVD/Mafioso tactics and his rise to power - almost out of nowhere - make him corrupt, paison?
To the extent I’m a student of WWII, I am fascinated by three generals/admirals/marshalls in particular: Yamamoto, after the Pearl Harbour attack and whether or not he actually said anything about “wakening a sleeping giant”, Rommel for not saying anything in particular yet missing D-Day because of his wife’s birthday, and Zhukov who was tasked by a deranged and stupid leader to defend Russia - and he did. Even in his absence, the defences he set up kept Hitler from taking and celebrating in the center of Leningrad and no matter how you look at the costs of war, defeated the German Army at Stalingrad.
Zhukov - nobody, no tactician, would have ever invaded Ukraine in February. The time to do it - calender-wise - is literally now. Capture Kiev by New Years and you are the hero. Putin is an ex spy. That is his CV/Resume. His only hope to look good is a January land-grab leading up to Trump’s inauguration. And then “Peace in our time” right?