Curious about reactions to these two items. Are these essentially normal fluctuations, or something more?
Care to summarize for those who are on the wrong side of the paywall?
First article:
Over 12 months, European countries achieved a remarkable energy pivot. First, they reduced their demand for gas. European natural-gas consumption in 2022 was estimated to be 12 percent lower than the average for the years 2019–21. More consumption cuts [are forecast] for 2023.
Weather helped. Europe’s winter of 2022–23 was [mild]. Energy substitution made a difference too. Germany [produced] 12 percent more coal-generated electricity in 2022 than in 2021. The slow recovery from the coronavirus pandemic in China helped as well. Chinese purchases of liquid natural gas on world markets [actually dropped] by nearly 20 percent in 2022 from their 2021 level.
Second, European countries looked out for consumers, and for one another. European Union governments [spent] close to 800 billion euros ($860 billion) to subsidize fuel bills in 2022. The United Kingdom [distributed] an emergency grant of £400 ($500) a household to help with fuel costs. Germany normally reexports almost half of the gas it imports, and despite shortfalls at home through the crisis, it [continued] to reexport a similar proportion to EU partners.
Third, as European countries cut their consumption, they also switched their sources of supply. The star of this part of the story is Norway, which [replaced] Russia as Europe’s single largest gas supplier. Norway rejiggered its offshore fields to produce less oil and more gas…
The net result is that Russian gas exports [fell] by 25 percent in 2022. And since the painful record prices set in the months before the February 2022 invasion, the cost of gas in Europe has steeply declined. Russian leaders had assumed that their pipelines to Europe would make the continent dependent on Russia. They did not apparently consider that the same pipelines also made Russia dependent on Europe.
Second article:
A small demographic tragedy is unfolding in [Russia]. Over the past three years the country has lost around 2m more people than it would ordinarily have done, as a result of war, disease and exodus. The life expectancy of Russian males aged 15 fell by almost five years, to the same level as in Haiti. The number of Russians born in April 2022 was no higher than it had been in the months of Hitler’s occupation. And because so many men of fighting age are dead or in exile, women now outnumber men by at least 10m.
War is not the sole—or even the main—cause of these troubles, but it has made them all worse. According to Western estimates, 175,000-250,000 Russian soldiers have been killed or wounded in the past year (Russia’s figures are lower). Somewhere between 500,000 and 1m mostly young, educated people have evaded the meat-grinder by [fleeing abroad]. Even if Russia had no other demographic problems, losing so many in such a short time would be painful. As it is, the losses of war are placing more burdens on a shrinking, ailing population. Russia may be entering a doom loop of demographic decline.
On the gas issue, I’m pretty sure they are (semi-)permanently fucked. They grabbed a big share of the market by being cheap and reliable, but then they went an blew up the “reliable” portion of that equation. That prompted the rest of Europe to find new sources, and now that the work has been done to replace Russian gas supplies, it’s going to be very hard for Russia to recapture the market share they lost.
I mean, how long will it take before anyone trusts Russia on anything? We tried trusting them in the 90s, and look where we are now. It will take at least a generation of post-Putinism, where Russia actually makes significant changes to both their government and culture before anyone even talks about trusting them.
The only thing they could do to speed that up is double down on the “cheap” part of the original equation, by selling so cheap people start thinking, “Oh man, how can I not buy it at that price?!?” Of course, at that price point, profits will be a small fraction of what they were, if profits are even possible at that price point. Russian billionaires will become Russian millionaires, if they’re lucky.
IMO @Horatius pretty well nailed the gas part.
OTOH, never underestimate the ability of greedy “profit-oriented” capitalists to be unable to resist creating a business too important to fail that is also dependent on nasty regimes remaining nice. Somebody is going to make a killing buying cheap post-Putin gas & reselling it. And the global market will adapt to that and then when the next fascist seizes power & tries the Gas weapon, he’ll find it has been helpfully re-loaded for him by western energy companies and helpfully re-aimed right at the West’s collective heads by western banks. Again.
As to demographics …
Russia was already in demographic freefall. Putin’s war just brings it forward 15 years and steepens the descent. The hard crash that is coming will be that much less pleasant for all concerned as a result.
I really think Canada should have tried much harder to enter the LNG market.
I wonder how Russia can ever develop the society needed to function as a modern industrialized nation. Seventy years of a command economy destroyed any work ethic that once existed. How do you do anything with a work force that believes in showing up for work drunk or high, and doing the shoddiest job they can get away with?
I’ve seen this work ethic in America, as well. It’s not the norm, but have a look at people who do shitty jobs for shitty pay, employed by large and distant employers. It’s not unheard of.
Russia has a number of problems, and (in my opinion) one of the chief unaddressed ones is alcohol. Their love affair with nicotine isn’t doing the overall lifespan any favours, but the large proportion of very heavy drinkers is more problematic. (Other nations, like Finland, also drink very heavily, but seem to manage better.) I suspect that’s as much a factor in the work ethic as the Communism of 30+ years ago.
I don’t think it’s necessarily a problem that adult women outnumber adult men. It’s not ideal, but Russia has quite a few problems that seem more pressing to me, including just the basics of managing an exceptionally enormous country with a very difficult climate.
Russia had issues with women significantly outnumbering men after WWII as well. That’s a reason that throughout the 20th Century certain professions in Russia had a higher percentage of women than they did in Western Europe and the US, like doctors and engineers. Yet it didn’t help the social status of women as much as you might think.
Women are often considered the limiting factor in human reproduction, and they are in one sense, but short of forcibly accepting sperm donation or compulsory polygamy (neither of which has happened in either the USSR or Russia as of yet) lack of available men is going to reduce the size of the next population because you still need men as well as women to make another human being.
So… this is the second time in about a century Russia has lost significant numbers of young men, to the point it affects their future demographics. That’s… not good. You need adults in prime working age to manage " just the basics of managing an exceptionally enormous country with a very difficult climate" and of course every year a certain number of people “age out” of that. Last I heard Russia has more people leaving the work force than entering it every year.
Couldn’t happen to a nicer country.
Wouldn’t happen to a nicer country.
I wonder if there’s a lot of young men in China who would accept a Russian wife over no wife at all … whether the reverse is true, that’s another story.
At the outset of the Ukraine war I blathered that one possible scenario is that Russia would become North Korea West, yet another horrible oppressive Chinese satellite state, with an already-prepared depressed obedient population.
It also wouldn’t be surprising if some of the minority cultures and former countries under the Russian thumb make a break for it, particularly in the western half. That would make Russia a lot smaller.
Could there possibly be a more opportune moment than now? Russia has moved all its troops to Ukraine. Could they possibly defend against an uprising in the east now? How about six uprisings?
That’s possible, sure, but I don’t think it’s likely in this case. Firstly, replacing the lost gas source wasn’t just about finding new gas sources. They also shifted their energy production to new sources, and found ways to reduce their overall energy use. As with the populations issues, they’ve accelerated trends that already existed, and those changes won’t be rolled back. As well, don’t forget that someone blew up that new pipeline that Russia was using, and Russia won’t have the money (or international good will) to replace that pipeline any time soon. Their other pipelines run through places like Ukraine, who will have better motivation than most to keep Russia poor going forward.
Ultimately, my concern is this: say the West succeeds in weakening Russia, to the point of hopeless poverty, permanently low standard of living, etc. I fervently hope they (we) do just that.
Does this drive Putin to do even more desperate acts than he’s been doing? Including nuclear?
I’m having a hard time seeing the precise point where Russia’s economy and entire system gets fucked, yet they don’t decide to drop a few N-bombs on Putin’s enemies.
Well, the hope is someone would depose Putin before they got to that point.
Seriously, what is the profit to anyone else in Russia of nuking Putin’s enemies? This would guarantee a military response that would, at a minimum, destroy Russia completely, and might destroy the rest of the world too.
I have to believe there’s someone in Russia who would decide to gamble on a coup rather than just let Putin wipe everything out.
Have you ever read history? This is a problem that Russia has been dealing with long, long, LONG before Communism. It’s an issue the Czars faced themselves (and partially why the Czars lost WWI and got deposed by Communism to begin with).
Reductive analysis that boils down to “Communism BAD!” is not helpful; it’s how we had so many people declaring that it was the End of History and that the US would rule as a sole superpower forever.
Before there was socialism most people were serfs, which are little more than agrarian slaves. It was a semi-feudal society for centuries. As part of the revolution most people with any education, or culture of independence were eliminated, and a bleak dictatorship was established. It seems to me that Russia is a very culturally sick country. Other feudal monarchies made into the modern world but not Russia, despite a more recent thin veneer of normalcy. It’s hard to see how they can climb out the hole they live in.
It’s possible that Russia will geographically shrink to its culturally-Russian core, and become a poor, corrupt, defanged client state. I have a hard time seeing other scenarios.
Are there any signs of “someone”? Or we are years away from “someone” being born?
I fully agree and think this article by Politico could interest you.
The problem with that idea (which I welcome in principle) is that when the next leader gains power in Russia and realizes that having the bomb did not save his predecessor because he could not use he will have to choose between two options: either he uses the bombs much earlier when problems arise to avoid Putin’s fate, or he gets rid of them altogether. And the problem I see is that no leader will choose the latter, because the kind of leaders that gain power in places like RuZZia are not that kind of rational. Some external power would have to take the weapons from RuZZia and I don’t see that happening, not even after a defeat againt Ucraine. China would not allow it, for one. And RuZZia would probably use the bomb after all before the advent of such a scenario, even post-Putler, I am afraid.
And concerning the “someone” that could depose Putler, there is always the possibility that this someone is Prigozhin, or worse.