I didn’t see a thread on this (apologies if I missed it), so thought I’d start one. This week, the ongoing border dispute between China and India turned bloody, with perhaps 20 Indian troops killed and maybe twice that many wounded, and some number of Chinese troops also injured and perhaps killed (official numbers…even if believed…aren’t out, though I saw a Global Times article saying 43 Chinese troops were hurt and a handful killed).
So, where do you think this is headed? China seems to be really pushing India, for some reason, on this (though of course the Chinese say the opposite), and neither side seems to be backing down, though both are saying they are there to talk and want peace. Will this incident be a wake-up call to lower tensions and bring the situation under control, or will this spiral out of control into a shooting war? From what I’ve heard from friends in India or who have families there the Indian people are pretty pissed off over this. I don’t know about China, though my impression is it isn’t as big a focus there right now. Figured I’d see what 'dopers thought about this new crisis and where it might be going…or not going.
Thanks, I hadn’t seen that one, though it’s more on the actual situation, not where it might be potentially going, so I think I’ll not request the mods to shut this one down yet. Appreciate bringing it up though and linking too it, as it’s great reference for anyone trying to grapple with what’s going on there.
I’ve been nervous about China’s territorial ambitions since the publication of the 9-dashed-line. I was happy that it seemed to be a lot of bluster and not a lot of warfare. This… shakes that confidence. The reports of what went down are downright chilling, and the propaganda coming out of India (I can’t read/understand the equivalent chinese propaganda) is extremely war-like. Propaganda mocking the enemy is common - but propaganda bragging about how easy and rewarding a war against practically subhuman enemies would be? Yeah, that gets a nation ready to fight in a huge way.
Somehow Google decided that Indian propaganda was a good match for my youtube recommendations. To be fair, watching some of those vids has given me a horrid fascination, but… I don’t like what I’m hearing. Both sides may be being pushed by nationalist elements within their populace towards war despite their respective desires and objectives.
That’s what I’m afraid of, to be honest. Yeah, a lot of the Indian channels I subscribe too are almost giddy about this event, and seem to be relishing the chance to duke it out with China. A lot of them are also talking about all of the weaknesses of the CCPs various PL-something military branches as well, and how ‘easy’ it would be to kick them over.
On the other side, the CCP is definitely pushing here hard (as well as in the East and South China Seas regions as you mentioned, and in Hong Kong and…well, the list is long in all the places and ways they are pushing hard these days). I think the CCP and Chinese nationalism is also driving this to the same extent it is driving India to not only not back down but to push back.
I think both would be (perhaps will be) surprised if this gets into a full out shooting war, and both sides will blame the other. But I can easily see this cluster fuck spinning out of control and a lot of folks getting killed over this…a lot more than the 20 on the Indian side and the unknown number on the Chinese side that happened this week. Hell, if the troops in the region are willing to beat each other to death with sticks and stones, what will they do once real weapons are brought into the mix? :eek:
If I read my map-like thing correctly, it looks like this happened in the general vicinity of a village called Murgo, which my map-like thing says means “Gates of Hell”. So, hmmm.
I’ve read that India supposedly occupies favorable/high ground along much of the disputed border with China and that Indian troops are supposedly more acclimated than Chinese troops are, which may explain the eagerness of some Indians to duke it out.
A while ago, India was trying to buy lightweight M777 howitzers from the United States, which might also be very suitable for helicopter transport up into the disputed region.
As I mentioned in the other thread, they want all the Buddhist Kingdoms of the Himalayas, it looks like to me. They are about to take Ladakh on the same shabby pretext they took Tibet. Maoists already control Nepal, and they maintain Bhutan was once their territory too.
Who’s to stop them? The world will make noise, but little else, in my opinion.
Also, I could easily see India sacrifice Ladakh for Chinese support in Kashmir, (an ongoing situation the world seems intent on ignoring.)
And it’s true that most Indian army deaths have been from exposure, the climate at this altitude is harsh indeed for anyone only accustom to only the hot Indian plains.
As somebody observed in the other thread, China seems to be making a push in several directions all at the same time. Which seems strange; they would face less resistance if they worked on these separate items one after another.
Two possibilities strike me. The first is they feel Trump will not organize an effective American response and that he’s in his final year in office. So they’ve moved the schedule up on things they had planned on working on stretched out over the next few years. But it this is the case, why did they wait until Trump’s final year in office instead of spreading them out over his four year term?
The second possibility is that Xi is feeling a lot more domestic pressure than we’re realizing outside of China. Covid19 may have added to this in the last few months. So Xi feels the need to push things now in order to placate internal opposition and/or domestic unrest and build up his prestige.
Reasons: India is a nuclear power. Not only could these two powers pretty much destroy each other in a day or two they can cause a nuclear winter which could drive the world into chaos. China is a large net food importer. A war imposed boycott could cause starvation in China. Even without open warfare, China could face economic sanctions that could destroy much of the progress she has made in the past 30 years. She is giving her neighbors little choice but to ally against her. There is absolutely little for China to gain from her aggression. I thank God that Trump is all talk and is too incompetent to push any kind of an aggressive agenda.
Xi doesn’t need prestige, he already has the job for life.
Also, China would control a LOT of water resources if they took all the mountainous terrain they seem to want.
A lot of the major rivers of Asia source there. They have very much to gain.
You could make the same argument about the USA grabbing territory from Canada. But both China and the USA have much more to lose. And did I mention that India is a nuclear power that wont allow China to grab that land?
They control most of them already with their Tibet acquisition (and looking at Vietnam, they are already being impacted by this and by China building more and more dams upstream and diverting more and more water to their own use). The only ones they don’t really control are the ones that provide water to India and Pakistan…which is why India is kind of interested in keeping the status quo on this. I think China’s real goal is to secure lines of communication and logistics for the region, and prevent India from have their own secure lines. Recently, as China had done already, India started building more logistics and road networks to the region and I think that’s why China is pushing now. That and I think this is a distraction for Xi and the CCP…a(nother) domestic issue they can use to distract their populace from the myriad problems impacting China right now. I also think that both sides feel the other will fold if they push or keep pushing back, depending on which side it is and their perception of what’s happening. India really doesn’t have any desire to push further or change the status quo, but they NEED to keep that status quo to ensure their own supplies and access to critical water resources.
