Wanted to throw this one at SDMB’s poker denizens. I’m at the Fallsview Casino playing 2/5 NL. Bought in for $375 and I’m whittled down to $320, sitting in Seat 7. I haven’t really been playing long enough to ascertain the tendencies of any of the players just yet but nobody looks like a donkey and historically this can be a tough game at this particular time of day. Seat 10 is the button.
I’m dealt the red fours.
Seat 1 Small blind $2
Seat 2 Big blind $5
Seat 3, stack approx $500, raises to $20
Seat 4 folds
Seat 5, stack approx $300, calls $20
Seat 6 folds
RickJay calls $20 (I have a pocket pair. I’m set mining!)
Seat 8 folds
Seat 9 calls $20
Seat 10 folds
Small blind folds
Big blind folds
$87 in pot
FLOP Ah 7d 4s
Woo hoo! I hit my set. Let’s see what happens.
Seat 3 bets $45
Seat 5 calls $45
Well, that’s interesting. The UTG guy raised preflop and now raises again. I put him on this range of likely hands:
AA - Possible but less likely
AK - Very likely. Simply more statistically probably than AA and fits betting
AQ or AJ, likely suited - Somewhat less likely but still possible
Anything else - I guess he could be bullshitting with JJ or something but it’s not the likeliest possibility
I am drawing near dead to AA but think it unlikely. I want more money in the pot.
RickJay raises to $90
Seat 9 folds
Seat 3 calls $45 to $90 total
Seat 5 folds
I’m a little surprised Seat 5 folds here; he was getting excellent odds for another $45 but I guess the guy probably had a pair lower than aces and figured he might get into trouble. Anyway it’s heads up.
Whoa. I now have a full house. I believe this makes it even LESS likely my opponent has pocket aces; it’s still possible but Bayesian thinking (I read “The Signal and the Noise”) tells me it is no longer all that probably.
Seat 3 bets $75
Well, that’s a fascinating bet. Why? I believe he has AK and is trying to extract money from me. I decide that if I push he will call; I believe the Ac was a horrible trap card for him. He won’t lay down trip aces king kicker to the vague likelihood of a full house when he’s this pot committed. If he has quad aces, well, you can’t die on a higher hill. I wave in my remaining $230.
RickJay raises all in $230
Seat 3 calls to $230
Seat 3 shows AK - Three Aces
RickJay shows 44 - Full house, four full of aces
So I win the pot.
Did Seat 3 err at any point here? I did not think so; I believe he was simply unlucky. (The table, which seems to be manned by decent players, seemed shocked at the result.) However, afterwards a friend argued that the turn $75 raise was unwise after a player in superior position had reraised his postflop $45 raise, and further felt I should have waited for the river to go all in.