Assuming 100 runs a session (and that’ll be fast, Aus over rates have been appalling considering most of the overs are being bowled by spinners), at Tea tomorrow SL could be 250 ahead. At that point, an Aus win is unlikely, but SL would have to bowl Aus out on a pitch they’ve just got 600 on, leaving enough time to get any target.
It’s not an easy question to answer.
SL have a lead of 70.
It’s not going to get easier to bat so they’ll bat on until they are dismissed.
If that is in the morning session on Day 5 with a lead of 270-300, that leaves AUS to bat out time for the draw.
In which case the draw become more likely only if they leave themselves in sufficient time to bowl AUS out.
If at tea tomorrow SL are dismissed (or less likely declare) with a 250 run lead then AUS are going to need 400 min, which is going to take at least 3 sessions to accumulate.
That would give SL 30 overs to chase down 150.
AUS are not going to be that generous, assuming they have a choice in the matter, so they either need more runs in 3 sessions which is unlikely or to bat for more than the 3 sessions denying SL time to chase.
At this point I would say Sri Lanka should bat on until they are dismissed or are 250 ahead.
If they do get 200+ ahead, they basically can’t lose. Either Australia would bat out four sessions or lose (50% SL, 50% Draw)
If the end up all out 150 ahead before lunch , then Australia could conceivably score 350 and set them 200 to chase in two sessions, and bowl them out. But that’s rather far fetched. (20% AUS, 50% Draw, 30% SL)
And of course there are various mix and match scenarios.
What I don’t see happening is Australia going Bazball when 150 behind, posting 350 in 70 overs and then having a whole day to bowl out Sri Lanka or Sri Lanka to chase it down.
Overall I would say 50% Draw, 40% SL, 10% Australia.
SL close with a lead of 190.
AUS have 54 overs to bat today today and min 90 tomorrow.
Not sure I see AUS getting to parity by stumps.
I don’t see AUS setting a target of less than 200 in a session of 30 overs.
So this needs a collapse for a result and AUS are the guys most likely.
Double ton for Dinesh Chandimal, giving SL the better chance of the win.
Draw is probably favourite now, but and AUS collapse is always possible. It’s a long way from an AUS win, but it’s weird what can happen sometimes.
Just checked after a little while away, and Aus are 4 down, with Smith gone for a 4 ball duck. Labuschagne is still there, so there’s still the chance, but today has been all SL
Labuschagne and Green or Carey will need to do something pretty heroic here, or Sri L
Well that’s thoroughly rogered that plan!
Two test series, each game won by an innings by each team!
What the heck happened to the rest of my message?
Not quite done yet. Defeat yes. Innings defeat, maybe not.
I assume the rest of your message was something like “anka will win at a canter”, which is what they are doing. Carey is still there, and may well make SL bat again, but David Lloyd is just outside, starting his car
Prabath Jayasuriya takes 12 on debut, the best return for a SL bowler on debut, and probably quite high up on the overall list of best bowling debuts
I wonder how much the unrest in Sri Lanka played a part in the Aus collapse. I didn’t watch much of this one, but you don’t often see them get beat down that badly. I think they can be forgiven for wanting to get the heck out of Dodge. I’m not saying that they would have tanked, but sometimes these things come from the subconscious.
Might just be political correctness/basic courtesy, but Australian Captain Cummins:
“[To the fans] Thank you for the lovely hosts you’ve been to our team throughout our tour here. We felt it straight away on the streets, in crowd even - we’ve never felt that before, a whole stadium here cheering for us. We’ve had a great five weeks here, absolutely loved it and can’t wait to get back.”
England getting obliterated in the first ODI so far by Bumrah. This leads to me to a thought I’ve had. Has anyone ever considered a 2-day match, in which each team bats 2 innings of 50 overs each? To me, this would be a nice middle ground between an ODI and a Test match, in which one bad innings of batting doesn’t automatically doom you.
There was a suggestion at one point that 2 innings of 20 overs each could be added in one day, but it’s never gotten off the ground. As far as I’m aware, there’s never been a serious level competition that had multiple limited overs innings.
Incredible - they actually played out the games on a local cricket pitch.
The Windies embarrassed themselves this morning in their ODI against Bangladesh. Bowled out for 108 in only 35 overs. Bangladesh at 45/0 (11 overs). They’ll need a juicy 1.64/over to run down this chase. The tension is just palpable. 
Not even as many as Eng managed against India. These low scores are always possibly in ODIs, even when teams are playing well, it’s one of the weaknesses of the format really.