It is a dilemma, built up on the way cricket fans revere statistics and numbers far above how those individual scores actually affect the game in question. There are multiple cricket statistical review websites on the Internet trying to evaluate the ‘worth’ of a particular performance in a particular match (eg - Is a half-century in a close, low-scoring match while facing some of the best bowlers of all time better than a double-century scored on a flat pitch etc - but, then, if the half-century was made against ‘the best bowlers of all time’, were they just having a bad day etc).
Inevitably they all go around and around in circles until they disappear up their own analysis, and all fall back onto mysterious ‘quotients’ or ‘XG-Factors’ that are just made up by the reviewer anyway.
Nevertheless, big round numbers are always fun, and make for easy headlines.
All I would say is that in 2535 tests, Carey has made the 3rd highest score ever in a successful run chase, batting as low as he did (No 7). Forget the fact he didn’t make the century - taking into consideration of the game situation when he came in, it’s in the Top 1-2% of individual innings in Test History. It won’t show in the stats - but cricket fans who know the game rather than the numbers will know.
Was a good game, and I’d be surprised if this was the last upset of the tournament. T20 lends itself, and a lot of the smaller teams are more professional.
However, I still can’t see anyone other than India and Pakistan progressing to the final.
Do you mean the final or the super 8? while Pakistan made the final of the last tournament it was a minor surprise that they did and going into this tournament there a several teams more likely to make the final than Pakistan.
Yesterday’s result casts considerable doubt whether Pakistan will even make the super 8. If the USA beat Ireland (a tough game but certainly winnable for the USA), the only way Pakistan can qualify is to win there remaining games and have a better net run rate than the US. Pakistan are likely to get big wins against Ireland and / or Canada to get a better run rate but India will be favorites to beat Pakistan (and they would love to send Pakistan home early). It is also possible Ireland could beat Pakistan (as you seain T20 lends itself to such results) which would make the Ireland USA game most likely decide who comes second in the group.
I meant the super 8, progressing from the group. Pakistan have lost one game, it’s not time to panic for them yet. Your analysis also seems to assume India will win all their games.
India are the favoritees to win the whole tournament and had an easy win against Ireland who should be the third strongest team in the group, them losing to USA or Canada would be a far bigger surprise than the USA result against Pakistan. I would be very surprised in India lose a group game other than against Pakistan and even in that game they will be strong favorites (the bookies have them at -250).
This is bourne out by the odds to get to the final before the tournament started:
India -125
Pakistan +550
Ireland +12450
USA +12450 (Ireland are a more established team but USA have home advantage)
anada +49950
Pakistan made came close against India but can now only qualify if the USA lose both their remaining games (and then it goes to net run rate)
Unless Scotland beat Austrailia, England can only go through by having a better net run rate than Scotland and they are so far behind that will be a challenge
Looking quite like both the the finalists from the last world cup won’t even make it out of the group stage.
Scotland are having a really great start to the tournament:
Put themselves in a strong position against England before being rained off.
Good win against a decent Namibia side
Crushed Oman to give themselves a huge run-rate advantage.
A win against Oz is probably too much to hope for, but keeping the run rate up will be a very positive outcome.
That said, England have Namibia and Oman to come themselves; they will have to play for run-rate as well as wins but the chances are there.
As has been pointed out elsewhere, the Scotland Vs Australia game is after all the England games, so Scotland will know what they have to do, nrr wise, to qualify.
I can’t see Australia ‘letting’ Scotland through by just doing enough to win. It’s a dangerous game to play anyway, since Scotland have proven themselves competent, and won’t want to leave themselves in a position where they could lose!
A lot depends on who bats first.
If Austrailia bat first they will want to score as many as possible and then prevent Scotland getting close.
If Austrailia bat second it does not make sense to start very aggresively to try and win with 5 or more overs to spare but risk losing early wickets and getting into trouble so they would probably aim to just remain a little above the required run rate.
The term “home clubs” doesn’t really apply.
Most of these guys play with a range of limited overs franchises in various competitions. A fair proportion have U19 selection with Test playing nations in the Carribean and subcontinent. I think Corey Anderson is the only one with Test experience (NZ).
For example Ali Khan is Pakistani born, Ohio raised and has played with:
United States of America
ICC Americas
Abu Dhabi Knight Riders
Delhi Bulls Bengal Tigers
Guyana Amazon Warriors
Kolkata Knight Riders
Islamabad United
Kabul Zwanan
Karachi Kings
Khulna Titans
Los Angeles Knight Riders
New York Strikers
Trinbago Knight Riders
Vancouver Knights
Winnipeg Hawks
I don’t know what is more stupid and aggravating in the Pakistani-American social media world (that I am part of)
people speculating that the team was paid to lose.
Pakistani-Americans sharing memes about how Pakistani-American (and Indian-American, and Caribbean American) players are not really Americans, EVEN IF THEY WERE BORN HERE.
Just to be clear, I’m not talking about anything anyone has said on the SDMB. Just venting.
Austrailia are saying they want Scotland to go through rather than England. The game format is if Austrailia lose to Scotland and finish 2nd in the group it makes no difference who they face in the super 8 so it does raise the question whether they will deliberately lose.
It is not unknown in sport though probably rarer that some fans think / would like. If an NFL team is 2-10 the team still try to win their remaining games rather than go for the number 1 pick.
Doesn’t always work though, in the 2012 olympic badminton where both teams were trying to lose and ended up getting disqualified for not using best efforts. In that casr however the players (and presumably coaches) were rather nieve as the officials warned the players multiple times that they must make their best efforts to win and they did not think they could / would be disqualified. Badminton at the 2012 Summer Olympics – Women's doubles - Wikipedia
I absolutely do not think they will deliberately lose - they carry points into the super 8, and I just can’t see Australia giving over valuable points.
What is perhaps more likely is letting Scotland get to a NRR target that’s enough to beat England, if they are in a position to do so. I don’t think they’ll set out to do it, but if Scotland are 9 down and need 10 more runs to get ahead of England on the NRR, I can see them bowling a couple juicy half volleys. But not if there’s any chance at all that Scotland could use that to wrangle a win.
Speaking as a Scot who is pretty invested in seeing Scotland get through - I really hope they don’t do this, it cheapens the whole thing. Just play the game and don’t fuck about.
Pakistan fans can’t quite cheer for India today but they are certainly hoping they win.
After losing both Rohit and Kohli with only 10 on the board, India have recovered somewhat to 60-3 but have fallen behind the run rate and this is one sticky wicket so nothing can be taken for granted.