Congrats @Cumbrian @Tueton et al on going 1-0 up.
England will have 2 days to score 220 odd.
Fuck me,
Arsewipe batting order , making every bowler look like Glenn McGrath in his prime.
I think England will find this chase very difficult. The total is probably going to be somewhere between 250 and 280 and that’s not straightforward historically. Plus this bowling line up for Pakistan is bloody good.
Going to be a good finish this, I think.
England should win in a canter.
2 fucking days. To make 245 odd. They can just bat out the difficult bits and get there safely.
I understand that a pessimist is never disappointed but you are going too far here. You shot us out for bugger all in the first innings and the pitch has deteriorated in the meantime. There is no reason, at all, you can’t do it again.
We’re making a bit of a meal of the final few wickets, to be honest. I said earlier that 250 would be the best England could hope for and that Pakistan would still be favourites, and that’s still true. Yes, it’s a Pakistan collapse, but England are by no means in control of this test match.
WinViz currently has Pakistan a 67% chance of winning the match with draw not in the equation. Doesn’t mean England can’t win from here. Doesn’t mean Pakistan are out of it though either.
This is, quite frankly, a pretty silly way of looking at it.
First, the amount of time left is essentially irrelevant; barring a long weather delay (not in the forecast), there’s going to be a result in this match.
More importantly, you seem to vastly under-estimate how tough it can be to “just bat out the difficult bits” against an excellent attack on a deteriorating pitch. This is no gimme. Sure, England could still win, but they’ve already been knocked over once in this game for a modest score, and your resignation is rather premature.
Stumps.
Yasir Shah has a test century, so Pakistan need to somehow survive till midway to lunch tommorrow or add at least 30 or so runs.
An attack with a 17-year-old, a 20-year-old and the most military medium of medium pacers.
Sure Lionel Messi err Yasir Shah is dangerous, but who else. Against a top and deep batting order. Who won’t be underestimating anyone this time.
This is going to be tight, unless Pakistan throw the bat and it comes off, setting 300. I reckon it’s going to be Pakistan by 40 or fewer runs or England by 4 or fewer wickets. It’s not going to be an easy win for either side.
Blockquote An attack with a 17-year-old, a 20-year-old and the most military medium of medium pacers.
SureLionel Messierr Yasir Shah is dangerous, but who else. Against a top and deep batting order. Who won’t be underestimating anyone this time.
Yeah, we’ve all played this game in our time. Lowering expectations, so you can shrug if you lose and say look at the depth of our attack and laugh in the opposition’s face if you win because of the same.
It’s rubbish. Your attack has already proved against the same batting unit that they can get well on top of them. They have the advantage of last use of the pitch. They are rightly in the box seats in this game - even if it will be a pretty tight finish.
Its not lowering expectations, its being realistic. When the opposition no 10 has 3000 runs and 13 fifties that shows depth.
The attack is good, as it showed. But unless we have a start like the first innings, (unlikely) then it can be managed. They can afford to play conservatively and get two sets batsmen. Then have one anchor and one to counterattack.
If the score was higher, then yes, say over 300 then yes it would have been correct to say box seat.
I was looking at whether @AK84 was being unrealistic or not and came across this interesting graph:
Personally however I do think Pakistan are overwhelming favourites. England don’t have a strong batting lineup at the moment and are a batter light in this Test. And Pakistan have a very good set of bowlers including two spinners on a turning deck.
That is interesting, especially given that the current Pakistan lead (244) is just a little bit to the right of the place on the graph where the red and green line cross over. If Pakistan can put on another 30 or 40, that will really help.
Ladbrokes currently has England at 11/10 (put on £100, get back £210), and Pakistan at 8/11 (put on £100, get back £173).
CricViz - following the wicket at the end of the day - has Pakistan at 62% to win the game. This seems right to me. They’re ahead, the favourites and only need 15-20 more runs to be firm favourites.
England need to mop up quickly but if Yasir goes off for a couple of overs, they’re done.
England don’t need this this morning - 20 added, and the second over hasn’t finished yet. Every over of this bangs another nail in England’s coffin.
Methinks that mad burst of slogging and good fun to boot has taken the Test out of England’s reach. 230 maybe, 275 no.
According the graph, chasing 275, 50% of teams win, and 35% lose. England can do this, but Pakistan are still very much in charge and favourites. If anyone gets in, they need to stay in, There’s all the time in the world, get the runs ugly. There’s a lot of batsmen in this team for whom a slow 80 in this game would be very, very good for their confidence and their place in the side.
There were too many sandwiches and scotch eggs being served up by England’s bowlers this morning.
Pope and Stokes need to put on 140 here I think, given what is behind them and the problems they will likely have with Yasir.
100-3. Pakistan still ahead - Winviz has them 75% to win from here
106/4 and I reckon it’s now only a matter of time for Pakistan. Buttler is going to have to play a knock he’s never really looked capable of at Test level or something spectacular is going to have to happen from Pope. Woakes on down are probably only good for 30-40 runs at best, given the way Yasir has bowled thus far