Anybody want to venture a guess as to what will happen?
How about nothing, because they don’t have physical custody of him, and this is all a sham to make us believe things are actually getting done in Iraq.
But, but, we won their hearts and minds! Removed the thread of Weapons of Mass Destruction! Established a flourishing democracy!
Accidentally shot while trying to escape.
Ah that’s right, I forgot about that stuff.
To answer the OP a little more seriously, I don’t think much will happen. It’s important to note that Iraq was given legal custody, but due to security concerns, he won’t be handed over physically for quite some time. I don’t know what legal custody constitutes, but my hunch is not has changed. Iraq may have legal custody, but we all know who’s running Iraq.
I have a nasty feeling he’ll be elected President come January.
Now, now, the Iraqi security forces are still a joke. Even if they wanted to guard him themselves, they’d be no match for the loyalists out there who are willing to kill anybody to free him. I don’t see what choice they had rather than let the Americans keep on guarding him for a while.
British officials apparently believe he will be executed. Well, that would prevent his escape, if nothing else.
I’m inclined to believe this will happen. The recent insurgencies seem to be motivated more by hatred of US forces rather than by loyalty to Saddam; executing him probably won’t inspire the insurgents any more than they’re already inspired. Plus, executing Saddam would neatly eliminate a potential rallying-point for opposition to the new government.
Personally, I think the new government would be better off having him rot in jail somewhere, but that option might prove too dangerous to a fledgling political force eager to assert its authority. Either way, I’d wager Saddam will not be alive two years from now.
I believe that should the Iraqis obtain physical custody of him, a great deal of money will change hands and he will “escape”, just as the guys who were surrounded in Afghanistan made some sort of deal.
Great, let’s give all the folks already pissed off at us more reason to feel that way. “The United States claims to be a nation of laws and fair trials, but instead of confronting Saddam with their weak charges, they staged an ‘escape’ and hunted him down like an animal! Barbarians!”
Not that this will matter much in the end; the only people who believe Saddam’s trial will produce a result other than one chosen by the United States also believe the “handover of sovergenty” actually means anything.
Neither do I expect it to be a fair trial. The verdict and sentence have likely already been decided. But I will be mildly surprised if he makes it to trial. Hussein was not the first Iraqi to murder his political opponents - just ask the Iraqi Hashemites, if you can find any. I don’t, however, expect his killing to take place while he’s physically in our hands.
The “custody”, like the “sovereignty”, seems to be of the same class of validity as those “Star Registry / get a star named after you” things.
Don’t worry, we’ll still get visitation rights on weekends and holidays.
Ahh, dictators. They grow up so fast.