I haven’t been able to find any polling data for Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s district. How is she doing? Is she likely to get re-elected to a second term in Congress?
The district is so blue that the Democratic primary is the real election. The Republican candidate is John Cummings and I’m not sure anyone has bothered with polling because he doesn’t have a snowball’s chance in hell.
FiveThirtyEight gives her a 9+9% chance of winning. In something as small (relatively speaking) as a House district in the NYC metro area, and a non-competitive race (as one sees in a district that’s solidly red or solidly blue), there’s not likely to be much in the way of polling done. Even FiveThirtyEight’s site doesn’t actually cite any polls.
Feh. Should have been “99+%”. Stupid typo. 
Yeah, she won the 2018 election with 78% of the vote. She won this year’s Democratic Primary with 74% of the vote. It’s a deep blue district. I think the reason you can’t find polls is that no one has bothered. That’s a safe Democratic seat. AOC is there to stay unless she’s unseated in a primary by another Democrat.
I grew up in the part of the district that’s in the Bronx, when it was much whiter. Now the district is only 18% white. It’s about 50% Hispanic, 16% Asian, and 11% black. It’s not going to vote Republican.
There was some talk that she might be vulnerable in her primary, but it mostly turned out to be conservative wish-fulfillment. Her opponent was a former CNBC business news anchor and a Republican until shortly before she changed her registration to challenge AOC.
Michelle Caruso-Cabrera got 18% against AOC in the Democratic primary. She’s running in the general election on something called the Serve America Movement Party. She’s probably more likely to take votes from the Republican than AOC.
I thought this was going to be about how you saw an ad for her on Facebook today claiming she needed money because she might lose her seat. Because I did, and I kinda scratched my head. I have to think it was someone trying to swindle gullible left-wing money. They might pass on like 1% of their take and claim the rest as expenses.
I’ve started to get fundraising emails from Team AOC, which is odd since although I am originally from her district I am registered to vote in DC and haven’t lived in the Bronx for 32 years. I have no idea how they identified me as a potential contributor. If I were going to donate I’m sure my money would be better spent elsewhere.
I’ve seen AOC ads on Facebook (i.e. from her Facebook account), but with her pushing issues, not saying she has a chance at losing. Biden is always the one saying we need to spend more money because Trump is outfunding him.
…it’s a cookbook!
In these districts that are either blue as the ocean or red as a ruby the hardest challenge is to get through the primary. AOC did that with ease. The general election is going to be a cruise.
Remember that when she won the seat in the first place, it was against an incumbent Democrat, and she won because the voters thought he wasn’t liberal enough.
That, and she’s probably the most popular member of Congress right now, with all of the free publicity the Republicans like to give her.
This. If you’d asked this question prior to the primary, I might have looked for a poll. But since she handily won her primary, she will win the general election.
In a 2022 primary she could be vulnerable if there’s one challenger only and her act has gotten tired to the voters, her pushing away Amazon jobs could hurt if the economy is still awful.
But for November, she will win easily, at least 75% of the vote and probably more. No need to poll and absolutely zero chance of an upset
Yeah, this is one of those seats where the election that counts is the primary.
One of the problems with these ultrasuperduper"safe" constituencies is that the party Borough committees get lazy. So I can imagine Team AOC asked the NYC Democratic Party (who doesn’t particularly love “insurgents”, even incumbent ones) for fundraising lists and someone said “ehh, give them whatevah you find in the file cabinet”.
The more likely challenge to her re-election (as well as all other NY Reps) is redistricting. NY is almost certain to lose one, and maybe two, Congressional seats in reapportionment. Democrats hold both houses of the NY legislature so they’ll presumably try to preserve Democratic seats, but the challenge is that they’ve been so successful evicting Republicans that it would be hard to draw maps that just eliminate Republican seats.
Actually, that was a win. They ended up getting most of those Amazon jobs without making any concessions. I’m sure she’ll point to that if she has a competitive race.
I can make plenty of ads using her stupid Amazon hatred against her. But, let’s see if that’s the right way to hit her a year from now. Let’s see how she is in the next Congress. I have a feeling she won’t be Always on Camera, she’s not the shiny new penny.
As much as I would love for AOC to get screwed in redistricting, she won’t. It’s not worth the national furor.
Just curious, what’s her “act” (as you called it)?
Do you think she’s really acting? I think the national-level Republican party is putting on an act for their base. They’re acting like she’s an absolutely unstoppable force for leftist politics, but not so unstoppable that she can survive an early and generous stream of donations to the Republican party.