Quite a few if’s and a lot of conjecture at this point, but she may have rocked the boat a bit too much to be able to recover.
Not a lot of big media coverage except for the New York Post, but their blurb was a bit light on content.
So what you’re saying is, “hello *Senator *Ocasio-Cortez”?! 
You know, I was wondering why I haven’t heard about her much in the news lately. Maybe she’s aware of this and has been lying low. I don’t really believe that, but who knows? In any case, there is a lot of conjecture, so while I’m on it, how about her just running in another district or the one that hers is incorporated into? I wouldn’t just count her all out, is all I’m saying.
I don’t think she’d have a prayer in a statewide election - Upstate is a totally different thing entirely.
Though I will also say when the conjecture is by Frank Luntz (in the Daily Wire article) and the NY Post, I’m not inclined to take it too seriously.
As for AOC laying low… she’s been on the campaign trail for Bernie Sanders quite openly and out there.
Well, a liberal Schumer has been senator for decades, and of course Clinton was one. But I’ve never looked at a breakdown of where he gets his votes, and really have no idea if AOC could get enough from the NYC area to win. But she surprised the hell out of a lot of Democrats a few years ago, and I’m just saying the idea, while I was generally joking there, is not out of the realm of possibility.
She could certainly get enough from the NYC area to win, given that the NYC area is 64% of the state. Acres don’t vote; people do, and the city is where the people are.
Schumer would destroy her, IMO. Don’t forget he’s from NYC as well and would get a lot of votes from Manhattan and parts of Brooklyn (where Schumer is from). And then he’d be favored in other parts of the state.
Thanks, both. Again, mainly joking 
but yes, Schumer would be a problem, but he has to retire sometime. I suppose…
AOC would have a better shot against Gillibrand tbh. Schumer is more popular… and can raise more money… than Gillibrand.
AOCs district is half Bronx and half queens. The Bronx half is her constituency. If they really want her out, they can effectively make her reintroduce herself to a whole new constituency but this time none will take her fr granted
Gillibrand’s seat doesn’t come up for reelection till 2024 with AOC presumably not wanting to take a two year break. Schumer’s seat is open in 2022. If she thinks the party is out to get her now… The Tea Party had some big GOP primary wins. IMO the smart money would still be on Schumer if she tried challenging him for his seat.
That is pretty normal. Try to run in a new district that covers part of the old. Since they are losing a seat she might run smack into another Dem incumbent in any of the obvious choices. She also won her current district by a couple more points than the state went for Clinton. It is the kind of district that you draw when you are trying to gerrymander a state for Republican advantage.* Some of that is likely just Democratic voters self gerrymandering by choosing to live together. Still the options might be there for the party to create districts that include hers but are less blue dominated. That might mean she gets stuck with options that make force her to really court the center left vote to avoid defeat in a truly contested general election.
- To be fair, if you just look at the margins in the entire list of House seats it makes the state look like it was districted by Republicans living up to the most hyperbolic statements about gerrymandering. There are not a lot of oddly shaped districts though. It may be that there are some underlying state requirements in the process that limit options to the party.
From what I’ve heard, Gillibrand has made herself persona non grata after the stunt she pulled with Al Franken. AOC would be much smarter to go after her seat instead.
Good riddance. She’s a nutter and we’re better off without her.
How would this work exactly? Imagine there is a state with 2 districts only. To combine in one, you simply remove the dividing line. How then do you decide which Rep goes and which stays? Seniority? Anyway, meaning no disrespect to anyone here, it just hit me fully, as ISiddiqui said: Frank Luntz is behind this. Think I’ll just bow out of this discussion.
You have a primary.
She may lose her seat even if it isn’t redistricted. She’s apparently not very popular at home, if you believe the Washington Examiner:
One caveat: the poll appears to have been sponsored by an anti-AOC group. But it still doesn’t bode well for her.
Every state has their own process, but this is another point in favor of independent redistricting.
Looking at the actual map:
AOC is in 14. So while all the lines will move, it’s really as simple as splitting it up among all the surrounding districts.
Thanks. The article discussed this as getting rid of AOC’s district, but didn’t bring up the other district that would also be gotten rid of. So why couldn’t it be the other person’s district? That’s why I asked, thinking that maybe New York’s Democratic Party might have rules for when such a situation arises. If someone has to go, then perhaps it was seniority.
Questions 4:
Yeah, I definitely wouldn’t put any stock in that poll.
But if you know from the beginning that the pollsters are biased, why grant them any credibility for deciding what bodes well for AOC. Doesn’t it make more sense to just ignore it?
You have an election. Nobody is guaranteed a congressional district. Ocasio-Cortez will have to run for a seat in 2020, 2022, and 2024 if she wants to stay in Congress regardless of anything else. All redistricting means is the border of the district she runs in will be different.