From what i understand, due to the decades-long one-child policy, The People’s Republic will soon consist mainly of retired elders: a nation where the majority of the population are non-contributing consumers.
China has existed in one form or the other for over 3,000 years. It is unlikely to “collapse” anytime soon.
However, it is going to experience extreme problems with adequate medical care for its burgeoning elderly population and it certainly won’t be able to overcome that problem without undertaking methods which would be viewed as be reprehensible in a modern society and which would cause massive civil unrest.
Given that China routinely erupts into some form of civil unrest every 20-30 and it is now “overdue” for that cycle, it’s changing demographic may be the catalyst for the next internal conflict.
This prospect is threatened for most civilized countries — with the implication that they, particularly Japan and western countries need to get in a lot of young immigrants in quick, to either do the work and then retire back home when exhausted, or stay and grow old in those places, joining the aged natives in a vicious circle — but in actuality these over/under population problems are self-correcting. Not necessarily including the Four Horsemen; although they usually do.
China isn’t going anywhere. Plus there’s an awful lot of them no matter what happens: presently there is no noticeable shortage of Han either in the PRC or among the millions in other countries around the Pacific Rim — technology and improved medicine will help to look after the old more than in the past. The One Child policy relieved the world overpopulation problem slightly, so we must be grateful.
I would be more worried about their lives in factories now, although bearing in mind their mostly peasant background ( exactly as it was for most of Europe ) I can’t say how much worse their horrific exploitation is, since being a Chinese peasant was never a recipe for happiness.
The older generation of Chinese are used to doing with very little by our standards. Very little. A small room for both grandpa and grandma and a few bowls of staple food a day and a little respect would make them very happy. Consumerism is overrated.
Did you know the Chinese use the same word for “collapse” as for “orange gazebo at sunset?”
There was a good article on this subject a couple of years ago, Will China Grow Old Before It Becomes Rich? A Demographic Time Bomb. If you continue to part II there is a very informative graph of China’s ratio of working age people to non-working age people over the decades and projected into the future.
The gist is not the collapse of China. Rather, it just isn’t going to be as prosperous a place as some of its counterparts. If you think America’s Social Security system is facing challenges, China’s is far worse. If you think health care costs are going to hold America back, wait till you see the effect this has on China. And so on.
The conclusion is to ask what investment opportunities all this reveals, so take it with a grain of salt. Still a good article to review if you wonder if China is going to ‘collapse’ thanks to non-contributing consumers.
I thought China was supposed to collapse because it’s building the mother of all real estate bubbles. Or because of pollution. Or because all the excess men will rebel in a tsunami of testosterone. I need to know which tune to whistle as I stroll past the graveyard.
It’s the first you listed. They have entire cities, with skyscrapers and housing, that are completely vacant. It’s why the Chinese are buying up American land.
On the other hand, the prospect of Civil War amongst its ethnic factions looks pretty damn good.
Mmmm according to Forbes and other sources, America owes 1.3 trillion dollars to China.
And OP China has been 5000 years or so going strong.
China has issues but it is everywhere.
My hope is China will become a world leader in finding cheap ways to care for the elderly. Ideally they’d pioneer low cost of living housing, low cost chronic care, low cost robotic and mechanical aide devices, etc.
China is a world leader in environmental and renewable energy tech because the problem is so severe over there. So I’m hoping they will do the same with elder care.
Also it isn’t just China, most east asian nations are facing something similar. However China’s per capita GDP will only be about 15k when it starts, it will be 40k+ in other east asian nations.
Articles concerning the air and water pollution issues in China make this statement somewhat questionable.
Real estate is cheaper here?!?
That already exists. One small injection and your elderly problems are gone. There’s also stabbing, shooting, and leaving in an oubliette.
For lack of better alternatives, I’d gamble on the last of those. At the start of the 19th century, Americans who couldn’t shoulder the burden of the elderly abandoned them to poorhouses, where they were largely worked to death. While China has changed fairly significantly since I visited 20 years ago, I don’t think it’s changed so much that this isn’t the path they’ll head down.
They have always had extreme problems with adequate medical care. China doesn’t have universal healthcare access now. They are planning to have it everywhere, at some level, by 2020. Likely it will be done in an affordable way.
As for “methods which would be viewed as reprehensible in a modern society and which would cause massive civil unrest,” consider the one/two child policy. It might not generate much unrest on this board, but if you tried it in a modern society, you would have revolution. And that revolution would have my support.
As for whether China will collapse, I don’t know. I certainly hope the PRC government collapses immediately. While the Russian model for such collapse don’t look entirely hopeful at the moment, it still is better than the cold war. And there’s every possibility that the successor state to the PRC would be something approaching liberal democracy.
The problems are so severe there China is becoming a world leader in trying to find solutions. They spent more money on clean energy than any other nation last year (about 1/4 of global total spending). So when they have tons of elderly they can’t take care of they are going to become world leaders in finding ways to deal with that problem.
I don’t think China would kill off 400 million of its citizens. It isn’t like everyone is just going to go along with that.
I’m wagering dormitories or boardinghouses for the elderly staffed by robots and low cost chronic care innovations will be how they deal with it. That and some low cost immigrant labor for whatever can’t be automated. Labor that has tons of restrictions on what they can do (I don’t know if China would be ok with millions of immigrants from Africa or SE Asia running around freely).
I’m not elderly, but I looked into communes before and they run about $200-400/month for one person food, utilities and shelter. And that was for high cost of living areas with insane real estate costs. Throw in some immigrants who get paid $200/month to watch over 10 people each and a bunch of automated advances and that is the most likely scenario IMO.
No, but it is considerably less volatile and provides a much more secure investment than a house in a ghost city.
It appears they are making cash purchases, which tells me this is the very wealthy making investment purchases.
I’m not certain what you trying to say. I didn’t say anything about universal health care and comparing attempts at birth control with caring for existing people seems to be a somewhat false analogy. The “one child” policy was a disaster in its implementation and it was circumvented by the wealthy.
Also, China has no tradition of liberal democracy so it would a take a sea change in their political thinking to even imagine one. What is more likely would be some less repressive form of authoritarian government with modest democratic leanings. Even this would have to restrict itself to limiting free speech and political assembly simply to remain in power.
Elder care doesn’t have to cost much, if you don’t expect anything in the way of medical care beyond palliative measures. Yes it’s expensive if Grandma needs a new hip after that fall, but it isn’t expensive if you just put Grandma in a cast and wait for her to die.