What was interesting to me is that she doesn’t say that in the linked article. It seemed to me like she was very deliberately steering clear of even that sort of statement. She references other countries’ “recognition” of Taiwan without ever specifying what they would be recognizing, and makes several references to Taiwan’s participation in international organizations and regimes, but never actually explicitly or directly refers to Taiwan as a sovereign state, which she actually has done in the past, including in that cite upthread.
Again, it really seemed to me like this was a very carefully calibrated statement that actually steered away from her previously stated position without renouncing it. It really seemed to me like an attempt to ratchet down tensions with Xi and Beijing without actually yielding any ground to them (literally or figuratively).
I agree, I see that tone as well, though, honestly, she has walked this line for a while…saying without saying, or downplaying while insinuating. But I certainly see her and Taiwan trying to ratchet down the tension…without backing down or going back into a hole and hiding as they kind of did for a long time.
gdave…any thoughts on why the Chinese government (Ministry of Commerce in this case) advised people to stock up on food ‘just in case’? I guess it could be that they are projecting shortages due to trade or supply issues as well as some of the natural disasters that have hit some of their food growing regions, but it seems an…odd…thing for the government to tell people to do (I think they walked it back fairly shortly after this as it nearly caused a panic with tons of people going out to buy everything in sight).
I ask here because, in the context of this thread it might be because the Government is seriously contemplating doing something more forceful wrt Taiwan, and in case of an international backlash they want to be prepared. Of course, alternatively, it might be because China plans to up their own food aid to North Korea, which is having real food supply issues. The CCP definitely doesn’t want to see North Korea collapse into chaos due to food shortages, or even just have a bunch of starting North Koreans rush the border to live in China where there is food (which has happened in the past).
No idea. But I don’t think I’ve ever seen an example of a government issuing a general public advisory to its citizens to prepare for food shortages in prepartion for a major military operation. As part of a campaign to promote general strategic preparedness, sure , but not as part of the run-up to an imminent operation.
I think it’s far more plausible that this was just goof by someone in the MoC trying to get ahead of supply chain and domestic food production and distribution issues.
Yeah, I agree, though in China, especially, this is a very odd thing to do. Food security and anxiety are real issues in China due to its past history, and the CCP is VERY sensitive about this and even implying that there is an issue with food security. It struck me as a really weird thing for one of their ministries to do, even by mistake, especially since official communications like this generally go through several top officials before being put out to the public.
There is another possibility, as I don’t know who is the head of the MoC, which is this was designed to look like a screw-up but actually was intended to blacken Xi and his factions eye or make them look bad.
As far as the U.S. is concerned, Beijing may think it is the best timing to attack Taiwan in a non-US-election year, since a stance of non-intervention might harm a sitting president in an election year if a shooting war were actually happening (but not necessarily; if the public’s sentiment is in favor of staying out of the conflict, then it would be different.)
They are using that language as cover for their worsening Covid caseload - people are panic buying because they fear another lockdown is coming, nothing to do with Taiwan IMO.
I just saw this video (below) which suggests Taiwan is far and away the biggest provider of computer chips for the world (TSMC…aka: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company).
There is no way the US and Europe would let China wreck that industry (which would almost certainly happen if China invaded). According to the video TSMC provides 90% of advanced chips and 24% of all chips worldwide. China will need to see that equation change before they can get away with stomping on Taiwan.
Be that as it may, not only would TSMC not serve as a deterrent to a Chinese attack, but it would arguably hurt the rest of the world a lot more than it would hurt China. America would have much more to lose, chip-wise, from a Chinese attack on Taiwan.
First off, TSMC doesn’t supply much in the way of chips to China - especially after Huawei was cut off (which was it’s 2nd-biggest customer as of last year.) Most of TSMC’s chips go to America and other non-China customers. So China doesn’t have that much at stake to lose.
In addition, China has SMIC, HHGrace and its other foundries as well, and SMIC isn’t that far behind, already knocking on the door of 7-nanometers, if I recall correctly. At this point, China already has most of the sophistication down pat - all that remains now is a matter of scaling it up to size. With the Chinese government continuing to pour many billions of dollars into domestic development, it’s only a matter of time before SMIC becomes a giant.
Sorry, I think I mis-read what your post originally meant. But - with Samsung also almost as capable as TSMC, and Intel ramping up its fabs, etc. I don’t think the rest of the world is going to be affected enough to intervene. They’ll likely swallow the loss but carry on.
That and also - if China attacked Taiwan, then at that point Taiwan’s chip industry is officially toast. Even foreign intervention wouldn’t save that industry anymore. The flight of human capital, damage done to infrastructure, unwillingness of anyone to buy chips from a war region would doom it. At that point the world may shrug and say, well, it’s a done deal, let’s just move on.
I do not think the rest of the world would be keen on taking that much production of chips off line if China invaded Taiwan.
There are other big manufacturers out there but we are currently in the middle of a chip shortage.
Even with no chip shortage taking TSMC offline would mean a huge chip shortage. It takes years to build new fabs to make chips (and loads of money). You cannot just delete TSMC and expect the other fabs to fill in for the loss.
As such, the countries of the world that want their iPhones will be pissed off at China.
China is obviously preparing to invade Taiwan, and so set off a major war. I suppose that when various internal political and economic chickens come home to roost, Xi will touch off a war to distract people.
“Many a bum show has been saved by the flag.”
People start wars after convincing themselves that they can keep it small. Sometimes they are right, but not too often.
I agree it wouldn’t be a deterrent…in fact, it would probably be an incentive for the CCP to actually invade (along with a host of others that are a higher priority for them). I disagree that this wouldn’t hurt China and that their domestic chip manufacturing capability is sufficient (or even very functional) for their own needs. It would have a trickle-down effect if Taiwan was unable to make chips for an extended time frame (i.e. if they were invaded and China had to take the island(s) by force). This would certainly hurt China…badly. However, they would still do it if they felt it was in their best interest, or they were politically threatened enough by not taking it to pull the trigger.
It doesn’t supply China with chips directly (if we are talking about the highest tech chips). They get most of their chips from other countries. It’s one of the issues they are having since their homegrown chip industry is riddled with corruption and is dysfunction to a large degree, with several large, state-sponsored chip foundries failing spectacularly in the past few years. The thing is, attacking Taiwan will, at a minimum, completely disrupt chip imports from other countries going to China, even if the countries sending them (South Korea, Japan, United States, Malaysia, Philippines, Vietnam, and of course Taiwan…‘chips’ don’t necessarily entail the highest tech chips, but stuff for cars and the like) are totally fine with China taking Taiwan…which, frankly, they won’t be. But even if they wanted to ship chips to China while China slaughters Taiwanese they wouldn’t be able to do so, as most of the shipping routes for Chip imports will be going through the war zone. This will have a negative impact for as long as the fighting goes on.
And, of course, most if not all of the countries that send chips to China are going to embargo those chips in the event of war…at a minimum.
I disagree with all of this. You really need to be following along with the drama of Chinese chip manufacturing and the companies doing it. I don’t believe that SMIC is going to be a significant player, and China and the CCP pouring billions into chip manufacturing companies has resulted, thus far, in a lot of wasted money (well, not to those who have enriched themselves from the graft of course, so the CCP is making out like a bandit despite a lack of actual chips produced).
They definitely don’t have ‘most of the sophistication down pat’…no idea where you are getting that except maybe a Black Rock promo piece.
The thing is wars start generally by accident by people who are quite sure that the situation will not get out of hand. I can see a time when China will be facing a number of unrelated political and economic crises. The leadership will convince themselves that a little war will be good for China. They will make a move that will cross a red line, or perhaps simply be misunderstood.
The other side will make a move that likewise will be misunderstood. Then of course there is always the possibility of an outside event making things a lot worse all of sudden. Imagine a massive computer hack during the Berlin Crisis for example. What if some young colonel obeys his orders rather than uses his common sense?
In any case, things quickly get out of hand in these situations. All promises made by advisors, allies, and generals will go out the window.
But to repeat myself, yes, the Chinese are fixing to attack Taiwan and will do so for domestic reasons we cannot predict and do not understand.
The only major, reasonably recent, war that covers is WWI, as far as I can think. WWII, Korea, Vietnam, Afghanistan, the post-Yugoslavia wars, the US Civil War, the Franco-Prussian war, the Boer war - all were started knowingly as wars. How do you justify “generally by accident”?
Not Paul, but WWII was pretty obviously a miscalculation on the part of Germany wrt pushing the other western powers. Russia miscalculated as well wrt Germany, and Japan miscalculated as well as Germany by declaring war on the US. Basically, it was all about miscalculation. Korea was a similar case, with the North Koreans basically miscalculating the US response, not asking the USSR or even informing them they were going to invade, the USSR miscalculating the UN response and not being there to cast their veto…again, a comedy of errors (or perhaps a tragedy of them). The same goes for the others, the US Civil war included, since the South obviously miscalculated the Union response as well as their ability to basically bring an early end to the war on their own terms.
I think this is exactly what would happen if China invaded…in fact, as I think they plan to do so, it’s what I expect to happen. The CCP miscalculates the US/western response and how easy it will be to take Taiwan by invasion. The US thinks it’s warned China off, but really hasn’t because both sides think they understand where the other is and what their response will be. Cluster fuck ensues…which is much worse than penis. It’s basically the knife edge we are on, and the one we will continue to be on as long as the US continues its strategic ambiguity, keeps giving mixed signals about Taiwan, and the CCP keeps putting on the pressure while also playing down to its own people the difficulty, playing up the nationalistic aspects, and keeps pushing this at home. We will eventually simply back into a war at this pace…IMHO. and it will be as much of a miscalculation ‘accident’ as those other conflicts you listed. Starting a war ‘knowlingly’ doesn’t mean you get the war you expect or want…
