Is Martin Armstrong a fraud/conspiracy theorist?

This is a rather nonspecific prediction (the “West/Middle East”) covers a lot of ground, and you could just as easily say that the guy missed the ramping up of tensions surrounding China and its territorial ambitions in Asia.

As another poster said, one can make a raft of predictions and then emphasize the ones that at least in part seemed to come true, while ignoring all the losers. I’ve seen this before with other “financial gurus” who want you to subscribe to their newsletters or buy their books (“So–and-so predicted the X Crisis and the Y Deceleration! He’s a genius!”).

Near as I can tell, these geniuses are making their money selling predictions, not by investing to take advantage of their second sight.

This was just one small paragraph summing up a much longer report.

China border tensions have been mentioned. Also don’t get me wrong, I’m not saying he is perfect, but I do believe he is better than most other economist.

Plus he keeps getting compared to financial gurus. That’s not what Armstrong is about.

He has no long sales video talking about how hes the guy who predicted this and that and you can protect your family for only $300 per month.

He just has a free blog. Even his market predictors are free. The only thing for sale is the seminars, which I went to one back in 2012. It was top notch, he did not cheap out on the food or anything. I’m not a marxist, and I don’t believe people should do free seminars. …And when they do, it’s probably a time share pitch.

Yeah, only the seminars, oh and:

So what? A pitch man is still a pitch man.

Go to a super market. You’ll sometimes see free samples. You’ll also see loss leaders - items given out at below cost to attract business and produce an overall profit from sales of other goods.

The free stuff are samples and loss leaders to attract customers to the main money maker - the seminars, DVDs, and other ancillary income streams. As for not “cheaping out”, you spend money to make money. “Cheaping out” costs him money in the long run, so he doesn’t do it. This is hardly a new concept. I wouldn’t buy from a luxury car dealership that didn’t kiss my ass and treat me right, either, even if I accepted a lower quality experience from a used car dealer. Same principle. You want to make luxury money on a continuing basis, you provide a luxury experience.

I still haven’t seen anything that isn’t analogous to soothsaying. Confirmation bias all over the place. Inaccuracies ignored and vague “predictions” stretched to the point of meaninglessness.

OK, so he predicted that Russia would be a problem in the Middle East, not in the West or in Asia. Ukraine is not, so far as I can tell, anywhere near the Middle East. Thus, his prediction is wrong.

Was Russia being “docile” when it invaded South Ossetia in 2008? Or during the two Chechan wars? Or the last time it tried to interfere in Ukranian politics by poisoning the prime minister?

Yes I see your point, if something is for sale, it must be a scam.

However I’m curious… Have you read any of his work? Or did you just search the site for stuff he is selling?

Compared to the violence the US accomplished, yes.

Again, that paragraph was a simple summary of his work. To find the truth, it’s best if you read his archives yourself. It’s all on his site, nothing is edited later, and nothing is hidden. There are hundreds maybe thousands of articles that have been written in the last year and a half.

One of reasons I trust Armstrong is because he does not optimize the revenue he is making.

Here’s an example of a company optimizing the revenue of their customers.

Notice they have dozens of products, most if not all are subscription based. Recurring monthly newsletters. And they have appropriately named them: True Wealth, Small Stock Specialist, Retirement Millionaire. Gee one might think they could rich if they could just afford a couple of those newsletters.

Divide and conquer… or Divide your service up and Bill more. If you’re solely out to make money, there are beter ways then putting on seminars.

Again, I’m not debating Armstrong is perfect, only that he is better source of information than most.

Did I say it was evidence for a scam? No. I merely rebutted your argument “He just has a free blog. Even his market predictors are free. The only thing for sale is the seminars”, which did appear to claim that since he’s only selling his seminars, he’s legit.

But when someone writes and sells a book on 2012, and doesn’t even remove it from their web page afterwards, I’m going to apply the tool of prejudice and save myself the time require to dig for their nuggets of sanity.

No, the fact that he’s claiming to predict the future means it must be a scam. The fact that he’s trying to make money off it just reduces his credibility further.

Personally, I don’t care how many pseudo-accurate predictions a guy makes - if he also claims that he made a self-aware computer that government agents took to WTC7 (and then proceeds to go full truther on that as well), he’s a lunatic. In this case, his predictions are overtly vague, often wrong, and completely unimpressive. He’s got a track record reminiscent of the bible. Half of what he’s saying could be found out through basic pattern recognition, and the rest is either wrong or so rare that it might as well be coincidence. And I love how you make excuses for how his predictions were vague and wrong by pointing out that russia was peaceful… in comparison to the USA. Well yeah, and the USA was peaceful in comparison to the West Bank. Give it a rest.

I’m not sure if he has ever actually claimed to predict the future. Mostly he says if you look through history, you can find similar situations to what’s going on in the modern world and that will help you get an idea of what could happen next. …This is because it’s human to nature tends to be the same… we have to learn from mistakes, rather than the experience of others.

Yeah that part is pretty sketchy I agree.

However he also holds the record for the most amount of time in jail without ever actually being convicted for a crime. Which can be verified. So it makes you wonder, what did he do? How does one get locked up for 11 years without ever getting convicted?

Fraud, civil contempt, and conspiracy. He hid assets from a civil settlement and pled guilty to conspiracy. It’s all pretty clear.

…I don’t know the first thing about this guy and it took me all of about 15 seconds to find exactly what his conviction was for. And even if you were right about there being no conviction, that still isn’t any kind of record. We’ve got POWs who were imprisoned for decades after the war ended simply for the crime of not speaking russian in a mental ward.

Sounds just a bit like Asimov’s “Psychohistory” to me.

Written as historical fiction, but a real behind-the-scenes look by someone who actually worked with him…

I dont believe in computer modeling, especially about it being able to tell the future …as in climate science there are to many factors especially unknown factors …to be able to tell the future .
Further I do not like Armstrongs writing …my bullshit meter is continually going off as I read his stuf …the logic is not there .
I think Armstrong some kind of disjnformation guy…he talks some truth znd some bs