Yep, and it’s still better to be ahead than behind.
Besides, there’s the small chance of a blowout to be considered. It’d be nice to see a win big enough to have coattails, to help marginal House and Senate candidates all across the map. And the route to a blowout starts with a decent lead.
Meanwhile, at least one Republican candidate is trying mightily to latch onto the coattails of…
Obama!
I wonder what sort of temper tantrum ol’ John threw when he heard about it?
He’s 15 points down and claiming he likes it that way.
Gallup puts it even, with Obama losing his lead from the past weeks.
Which, in all honesty, just tells me that at this point polls can’t be relied on (as much as I’d love the fact that Obama lost 15-some points)!
Not even if you say Opal afterward? 
If you add in subtle forms of bias in on top of the purely statistical uncertainty (i.e. no poll will be able to eliminate bias completely-there exists no “pure” population sample), then it’d be no surprise to see the lead in the polls swing from Obama +6, to dead even, to McCain +2, etc. I recall a stat prof. I had in college who simply refused to bring up the issue of bias at all in his lectures, despite several promptings from the gadflies in his class (i.e. me, mainly).
McCain Orders Shake-Up of His Campaign
The McCain way didn’t work, so they’ll be trying the Republican way.
I expect much nastiness.
If one goes to electoral-vote.com, one would note that Montana is baby-blue on their map, on account of a Rasmussen poll showing Obama up by 5 in that state.
Time to invest in dental floss and pygmy ponies. 
I agree with Nate Silver at 538 that McCain’s still the favorite to win Montana, but it is very definitely in play.
My guess is that so is North Dakota, where Obama visited yesterday.
Looking ahead McCain has a bit of a rough road if nothing else. Paul’s seperate show and the Barr factor are bad enough but even the convention itself is going to be contentious as the BushCo side threatens a platform fight.
And now even Gallup is back to running Obama 6 points up.
Again, the has not yetbegun to sling; the road is long. But thems some big potholes ahead for McCain to get past.
I’ve been trying to figure out what makes McCain’s speeches so bad, apart from the overall banality. And it occured to me as I watched his speech to a group of Latinos today and, more importantly, their facial expressions, that he speaks as though it’s a room full of third graders. There’s an artificial slowness to the pace and a condescension to the tone that one often hears when idiots speak to foreigners. So I went to YouTube to look at other speeches, and sure enough McCain is not simply an idiot. He is also just a really bad speech maker, using the same prodding style no matter who his audience is.
To be fair, I think his speaking style as we are seeing it now is artificially blunted. He’s been advised into this, and that’s why he seems so uncomfortable.
It’s said that one-on-one he is charming, which makes sense given the admiration that many in the press have for him. The press doesn’t really like being condescended to and I think that’s what eventually soured them on Bush.
McCain is also a good deal better in the town hall formats, at least when his temper is under control. He’s not a good public speaker behind the lectern, but I don’t think he’s as bad as he looks right now. He’s probably been told to smile more and break his sentences into rhetorical chunks for sound-bite purposes. He’s clearly uncomfortable with both. Maybe he’ll get more comfortable, or maybe another campaign shake-up will lead to the inevitable experiment in “let McCain be McCain” and he’ll go back to comfortable monotone rambling.
At the risk of getting petty and superficial - voters often are. Votes are often decided on whether the trust one feels just looking at a face. In this regard it is significant that McCain’s smile is invariably a forced one. (You tell the forced smile - no crow’s feet - and surprisingly McCain has little crow’s feet even when he smiles broadly. Look at those photos.) He almost looks in pain when he smiles publicly. Obama has a real smile. Petty, yes. Superficial, yes. Potentially able to influence a surprising amount of votes, yes.
I think it may be time for McCain to change the little placard he puts on his podium. I don’t know whether its the font, the contrast, or what. But a friend of mine just saw it and squinted, saying “What’s that say? Racism. Pornography. And what, Prunes?”
I’m 52, and the only time I get crow’s feet is when I squint. My eyes narrow somewhat, but not enough to make crow’s feet. It’s just a matter of how the muscles of your face work relative to the fat and skin, I guess. I doubt he’s had “work” done.
But he was a serious hottie back in the day!
Oy!, that’s actually based on some real research. I wouldn’t make this up.
Meanwhile this is interesting. It seems that McCain’s attempt to solidify his base is not having much good effect there - in fact since February significantly more Republicans see him as too conservative and fewer as “about right”, while among independents even more have shifted out from “about right” - down from 42 to 34% - and all into “too conservative” - up from 33 to 41%.
Meanwhile despite the fact that Obama has been eviscerated for his apparent “lurch” to the middle, more independents now see him as “too liberal” and more Democrats as “just right.” Go figure. (Of course this conflicts with Rasmussen’s findings that find Obama to be percieved as less liberal across the board; Rasmussen has not yet reported similar polling for McCain. At least not in their free section that I have access to.)
FWIW.
Go figure. Apparently I’ve never smiled for real in my life.
McCain is running a terrible campaign. He’s definitely going to be forked soon if he doesn’t get it in gear. I’m not one to call things this early in the game, but he’s got a really tough, up-hill battle to fight. And he ain’t gettin’ any younger…
Gosh, I hope he doesn’t flop prematurely. Obama may never recover from that.
-Joe
Oy! really no pictures of your smiling at a party with crow’s feet? I guess no rule is absolute.
I just noticed something about my cites. While the Gallup poll was just released today the most recent data is from June 15 - 19 … before Obama’s most recent and controversial moves to the center that have angered so many (especially announcing his FISA position June 20). Meanwhile Rasmssen’s was from June 28 - 29. That may be part of it.
Really, really. Only when I squint. Which, since I almost never go outside in daytime without sunglasses is almost never.
Also, no apparent gray hair. Although since my hair is pretty light ash blonde, that may be simply that it’s there but no one can see it.
Terrific. I’m a freak.