Really? You don’t have commitment, an ability to work, an ability to persuade? You’re helpless before the world, with nothing more than hope to sustain you? Not me, friend. Nor anyone else who actually gets what they want with any consistency.
Nobody (here) said there was. There are, however, probabilities based on data, if you’re prepared to use them to guide your efforts.
Or you can just hope.
Me, personally, Elvis? Actually, myself, very very little. I have vertigo. Haven’t worked in two years. Can’t go anwhere. Can’t do much. Have no money. Can’t schedule anything with any accuracy because I never know when I’ll have an attack or how long it will last or how severe it will be. Haven’t gotten on to SDI yet, because it’s pretty difficult to prove something that happens intermittently inside your head - it doesn’t show up very readily in the brain unless you have a brain tumor or something, which I don’t. I’m selling my house so I’ll have something to live on for a year or two. I rarely see anyone.
Hope is pretty much all I have right now. Care to come back with any snappy put downs? If so, I’d rather you not bother. I really don’t need a lot of help feeling like crap.
In the words of Forrest Gump, that’s all I have to say about that.
Oh Lord, not this again.
Let’s just put it in logical terms:
Gore won the national popular vote in 2000 by 0.5%, but lost the electoral vote by 4 votes.
Therefore NO national popular vote lead, no matter how large, has meaning.
Hopefully the absurdity of that proposition is immediately obvious.
First, I’d question the RCP methodology, which is to count one poll by each non-excluded pollster, and weight them equally.
Take NH, for example. RCP counts a three month old Dartmouth poll equally with last week’s Rasmussen poll and UNH’s poll from mid-month.
And it doesn’t count at all Rasmussen’s polls from June and May, both of which are more recent than the Dartmouth poll. (Nor does it count ARG’s poll taken at almost the same time as the June Rasmussen poll, which arrived at essentially the same result. I can’t quarrel with them too hard on this, due to my own skepticism of ARG, but I’ll still up the weight of a more reliable pollster’s result if ARG confirms it.)
Also, I’d only go back 6 weeks, maybe 8 if the polling is thin.
Do those things, and NH is a bit less of a tossup.
So what’s the lesson here? ISTM that the lesson is that the Dems are in pretty good control of the Kerry states, plus Iowa, which gives them a base of 259 EVs.
Sure, McCain can run the table and win, but that’s what he’s got to do. If he loses Virginia, it’s over. If he loses New Mexico (which Kerry lost by <6000) and Nevada (which Kerry lost by 21,500), it’s over. If he loses Colorado, he can still run the table - but he’d better not lose anything else. Not just no other state - he could lose the election by losing Omaha.
And that’s not even considering FL or OH.
Well, at least this much is true.
No, what the solid states do is limit the range of possibilities.
That states like Wisconsin and Iowa are solid for Obama this time around, means that McCain has to all but run the table of states he can win. OTOH, Obama can contest Virginia and Indiana and Montana and North Dakota, expanding the map.
So okay, whaddup with this? 
Meanwhile Gallup’s seperate daily tracking poll has Obama up by 8 in registered voters with MOE of +/- 2. So less than 2.5% chance that the USA Today/Gallup results actually signify more than 7 points plus Obama registered voters, and less than 2.5% chance that the daily tracking signifies less a 6 points plus Obama. That with Rasmussen’s 3 point plus for Obama with a MOE +/- of 2 makes a real number of 5 or 6 plus Obama likely.
That “likely voter” bit is interesting. At this snapshot in time Republicans seem more likely to actually come out by Gallup’s estimations.
One complaint: RCP is using the “likely voter” number of the USA Today/Gallup poll (McCain +4) in calculating its rolling avg even thought he others are all registered voters and the USA/Gallup poll has the same apples to compare with. Seems odd unless they want to make it seem closer than it is.
The DOF (Doddering Old Fool) said today that Obama’s meeting with major US economists was nothing more than a photo op. This as he stood on an oil drilling platform. What a fucking shitmouth.
A commenter at pollster.com pointed out that the difference between the 900-RV Gallup poll (47-44, Obama) and its 791-LV subset (49-45, McCain) would mean that, absent any weighting, the ‘unlikely’ registered voters would have had to favor Obama by an extremely unlikely 61%-7%.
I’ve checked the arithmetic, and he’s right:
For 900 RVs, 47-44 = 423 O, 396 M, 81 U/O.
For 791 LVs, 45-49 = 356 O, 388 M, 47 U/O.
The difference:
For 109 ULVs, 67 O, 8 M, 34 U/O.
That takes a ginormous amount of finite Improbability.
And if we assume weighting, then the weighted totals look like that. Just as unlikely.
Okay. So at this snapshot in time Republicans seem much more likely to actually come out by Gallup’s estimations.
It’s like… there might be a heavy turnout of black voters who normally wouldn’t think it was worth their while to get off their asses.
Nooooo.
By the same token (or generalization, if I may respond in kind), there may be a significant number of uneducated, unevolved and otherwise disenfranchised whites who get off their asses and vote, motivated by nothing more than a desire to ensure against an assumed-Muslim, terrorist-fist-bumping black man leading this country. :rolleyes:
While the discussion of campaign strategy is interesting, its relevance to the outcome of the election is arguable. Do not underestimate the great unwashed: after nearly four years, I’m *still * awash in a sea of cognitive dissonance in re: Bush’s election to a second term.
Quninnipiac polls today are showing that Obama is marginally ahead in FL and OH (both within MOE so officially “close”) and solidly ahead in PA. These are narrower leads than the last Quinnipiac polls which were dome at Obama’s peak right after he cinched the nomination. That said the OH polls have been all over the place - the last one was Rassmussen’s and had McCain up by 10 after PP had Obama up by 8 the day before. FL seems consistently close at this point but it must be noted that Obama is spending big there and so far McCain has not.
Also this is very interesting.
Arizona a battlegound?!? Oh c’mon. Really?
Boy. If this race really does reach a point where Arizona isn’t a McCain sure thing then it is really time to prepare the forks and see if the juice is still pink.
Is McCain forked? In your dreams.
With the adulatory press Obama has been receiving he should be 20 points ahead in the polls. The fact that he didn’t get a greater boost from his overseas jaunt should be very worrying for Democrats. The November contest will be between substance and style. Substance will win out and McCain will be the next President of the United States.
No, not really.
That Zogby poll was Zogby Interactive, their online polling arm. Zogby’s telephone polls are passable (although less trustworthy IMHO than other major pollsters like SurveyUSA, Research 2000, Quinnipiac, and Rasmussen), but its online polls are garbage.
All of the non-Zogby polls in the past few months have shown McCain up by 9-11 points in AZ. Arizona is getting more purple, but it’s not a Dem pickup opportunity with McCain running.
McCain’s got so much substance that he’s got substance on both sides of 72 issues.
I just noticed something. Obama will give his acceptance speech in a football stadium surrounded by thousands of spectators.
McCain will give his acceptance speech on NFL OPENING NIGHT!!! Thursday, Sept. 4.
The Republican party wants to compete with the NFL? No one will see McCain’s speech especially not the white male demographic he needs. Does McCain think he’ll winover Democratic leaning women that night?
McCain’s own hometown newspaper is criticizing him:
I too think Arizona won’t flip blue for Obama, but I also think McCain’s going to have to divert some badly needed resources to what should have been a lock for him.
My family is involved with registration of voters. We have had a lot of people we call say they will not vote for a nigger. We can not measure acurately how prejudiced the country is . It may be very difficult for a black to win.
Considering McCain’s speaking skills, going against the NFL opener might be the shrewdest move of his campaigh.
True 'dat and that’s why I expressed such incredulity, but still the last of those polls were almost a month ago.
Texas is also surprisingly now consistently, well all of the month and a half anyway, within ten. Today’s Rasmussen was McCain by 8.
To me that is amazingly close for those states. Of course how close they are really depends on what kind of turn-outs you expect of whom. Me, I’m fairly confident of an unprecedented large Hispanic turnout and that turnout is going to overwhelmingly voting Obama. If that, and a good Obama ground game gets coupled with lackluster core turnout for McCain (5 to 10% of usual likely voters either staying home or voting Barr) then a 7 or 8% or even more registered voter deficit before election day may still bode well for Obama (even if he’s behind by even more by traditional “likely voter” measures). Unlikely, sure, but amazing that they are actually even potential Obama wins, in play at all - and either of them would be enough to prevent a McCain win even if otherwise runs the table of the battlegrounds.
I find one argument being made here and elsewhere to be very odd: Obama should be winning by more. He is consistently winning. There is nothing on the known horizon that favors McCain structurally. Obama is getting out the images that will percolate, images of him appearing Presidential. They do not need to have an immediate result and would even be worth a short term dip. Obama has a well orchestrated convention coming up. McCain has a potential for a Convention disaster with Barr and Paul both competing to get their messages out and the bad timing of his acceptance speech noted upthread. Obama has the advantage on the ground with troops to get the vote out on election day. As the public sees Obama more he becomes less “different” to them. The landscape that approaches in short favors Obama coming from behind if he was behind, to win even if the polls on election eve were dead even, and he is instead consistently with a lead of 3 to 5 plus statistical noise in either direction.
Unknown future events can change things. McCain’s team could suddenly find an attack that resonates. Obama could make some unforgivable gaffe. Who knows? But the McCain does not have his at bat coming up and the “Obama should be winning by more” argument is a bit specious.
Oooooh. This gets even more interesting.
That Rasmussen Texas poll that has McCain up by 8 is one that uses their “likely voter” screen. Now Rasmussen is not as open about what their screen is as Gallup is but we know from this article during the 2004 election that it includes “some sort of self-reported measure of past voting as part of their model or screen.” These likely voter screens will fail and fail catastrophically if indeed new voters do come out and are unevenly distributed between the candidates as very few who have not voted in the last election will meet the criteria for “likely voter”. Obama’s support in young first time voters and his support among the huge numbers of Hispanics who voted in the Texas Democratic primary but did not vote last time at all is very likely not at all counted in this result. Now perhaps they will end up sitting this one out after all, but one must at least consider the possibility that the “likely voter” screen is actually oversampling the demographic that leans McCain even though they are arguably less likely to vote this time than in elections past, and undersampling those demographics newly involved but who are quite energized and firm in their support this cycle.
Methinks Texas is actually quite close.
Rasmussen’s last Arizona poll (McCain up by 9) is also with that potentially confounding likely voter screen. The other relatively recent Arizona poll, Arizona State, was of registered voters and had McCain up by 10, but had 34% undecided … in his home state!
This cycle in particular the “likely voter” screen is a potential confounder and results based on those screens need to be interpreted accordingly.
Fuck.