One interesting (to me, anyway) observation after wandering over to CNN.com’s Political Ticker and reading the responses to articles on the most recent ads by Obama and McCain: The attack ads aren’t selling well, at least with people motivated to post comments there.
Obama’s new Hands ad is upbeat, positive, offering solutions to economic and energy problems. The comments are overwhelmingly positive and appreciative. A number point out how well this will fit within the Olympic coverage.
McCain’s new ad, Painful, is yet another attack on Obama as an out-of-touch celebrity, obviously designed to scare people, and built on outright lies about Obama’s positions. It’s getting hammered in the comments as false, stupid, an insult to voters’ intelligence, and “Oh God, more of the same?!?” Many, many comments make the point that McCain says zilch about what he’d do, only slams Obama, and draw the conclusion that McCain is desperate and has nothing of his own to offer.
I haven’t read the whole thread yet, so I apologize if this is repeating things . . .
It occurs to me that if Obama can win all the states Kerry took and add Iowa, Colorado, and New Mexico, then he has enough to win. (Simply adding Ohio would get the job done just as well.) I’m encouraged by the fact that Obama has been pretty consistently ahead in most polls in Iowa, Colorado, and New Mexico.
But I’m discouraged by the fact that at this point Kerry had consistently been ahead by a small margin in Iowa, and by a larger margin in New Mexico, before going on to lose both states.
What happened? Was this due to the Swift Boat thing or some other obvious precipitating factor? How worried should I be that Obama’s lead will prove similarly fragile?
tim, what possibly makes you think we know? Things look pretty good just at the moment, and Obama is a smart campaigner, but never underestimate the abilities of the Republicans to pull off dirty tricks.
Oh, I don’t think any of you know what will happen, I just figured someone else might have a more educated take on things than mine. I’m basically just looking at the polls and saying "Well, so far so good . . . "
The conventional wisdom is that Kerry did not effectively respond to the negatives thrown against him and was not effectively out there defining himself in any positive way. With neither a strong defense against the negative or a strong positive definition of himself going out, the negatives became how he was perceived by many. Also Bush-Kerry polls were much more volatile throughout. Relatively this race is boringly consistent. Obama is no Kerry.
I was only four when Kennedy was elected, although I vaguely remember being happy when Kennedy “beat” Nixon in the debate. But it was apparently a pretty big deal that Kennedy was a Catholic, and my Mom has told me how he went out and made people feel that they would be bigots if they didn’t vote for him - it was very artfully done at the time. I think that Obama is shaping up to be a lot like Kennedy.
And I’m not the only one. I happened to catch Ted Soreneson on Charlie Rose a couple of months ago, and he made it clear that he thought of Obama as another Kennedy. It was rather touching. Here was this extremely well preserved man who had clearly tamped down his idealism for nearly forty years, and was finally seeing a chance to let it out again.
I just hope that Obama doesn’t end as the Kennedy brothers did.
If it makes you feel any better, consider that political strategists have spent the last four years discussing “what happened?” and making plans to not let it happen again.
So we are now halfway through the week that was expected to be a good one for McCain - Obama on vacation and the Presidential politics stage all to himself - outspending Obama on Olympic ads by 20%.
Gallup has gone from averaging a 3 point Obama lead last week to +5 and 6. Rasmussen going from McCain even or even up a day or so for the first time in like forever, to Obama +2 consistently.
Of course to the pollsters what is important is how close and exciting this race is. Gallup’s spin:
And Pew’s is better. Comparing the result from June, right on top of Obama’s victory in the primaries bounce up to 8 with their most recent Obama up by 3 (MOE +/- 2.5) they note how
Hard to believe that any of the people who responded to these polls are paying any attention whatsoever to the polls. McCain is the one sounding like a hotshot kid, while Obama is the one sounding like the calm, experienced statesman. Well, you know what they say: No one ever went broke underestimating the stupidity of the American public.
Which isn’t quite the story as it was when Obama went from +9 to +2. Then it was “Obama’s bounce is gone!!”. Now it’s “Huh? +6 Gallup lead? Oh, wait… a Pew poll!”
The electoral-vote website that some posters here have touted as the only poll that matters, while still having Obama in a 40-point electoral vote lead, has also seen him lose about 60 electoral votes in the past couple weeks to McCain.
That’s because, a week or so ago, MO, FL and VA were all listed as ties. Obama hasn’t really been losing ground, McCain just picked some up. I don’t think that McCain leading in those states is any real suprise althoug it is interesting because it shows that (A) Obama has a path to victory which doesn’t require Ohio or Florida and (B) Virginia is still only McCain’s by a point. Today’s Rasmussen poll found the same thing – without leaners, it’s Obama +1 and with it’s McCain +1.
I think it’s mostly been ElvisL1ves who’s been of that persuasion.
The problem with state polls is that they’re infrequent. It’s mid-August, and roughly half of the states I’d consider swing states have been polled this month. Indiana hasn’t been polled since June. MN, ND, NH, NM haven’t been polled in three weeks or more; almost that long for Ohio. So the state map is necessarily going to be a lagging indicator - sometimes a very seriously lagging indicator - of how well a campaign is doing.
Meanwhile, national polls are taken regularly, not to mention the Gallup and Rasmussen trackers are running continuously. And it’s a safe bet that any substantive changes in the national polls will take some states along with them. So at this point, the national polls are a much better indicator of where the race is now.
As we get down to the end, the number of states that are clearly going one way or the other will increase, and the states in play will shrink; as the contest narrows in that respect, state polls will be a better indicator.
It does show Obama with a nice 80 vote lead, but the 147 “toss up” votes means that it’s no time to relax and rest on our laurels. Many of those Obama is leading yes, but some by a mere 1/2%.
Yeah, that’s another problem with a lot of electoral-vote maps.
One of the things I like about 538’s map is that it scales the reds and blues all the way down to blues and pinks that are barely distinguishable from white (tossup), so you can see at a glance whether a candidate’s lead in a state’s polls is solid or shaky.
Don’t forget the massive bump that Obama is going to get after the Democratic Convention. This isn’t exactly a “You heard it here first!” type post, but more of a “I know it’s coming, the only question is how big will the wave be?”
As odd as it sounds (and it COMPLETELY baffles me), some people refuse to vote for Senator Obama because they think he’ll get killed when he’s in office. It’s a very small minority of folks, though.
It’s not just ties falling towards McCain, it’s definitely Obama losing states. He was well over 300 and now has fallen to 275 (as of today), while McCain has gone from under 200 to 250…the spread has gone from over 100 points weeks ago to 40 points Wednesday to 25 today.
Yes, still Obama-favored, but the pretzel logic necessary to say that Obama isn’t losing support in some areas is…odd.
