CNN just released some new battleground data:
MI Obama +4
NH Obama +6
VA McCain +4
MO McCain +5
Rasmussen is supposed to release new ND & NM data in about an hour.
Gotta admit, this is some of the most intensive state polling I’ve ever seen.
If this keeps up, I’m gonna be WAY wrong about the lag time!
Rasmussen has McCain up by 2 in NM, and up by 14 in ND.
The daily trackers seem to have settled down in the McCain up by 2-3 point range, and the RCP average has had McCain up by between 2.2 and 2.4 points for a few days now.
Nate’s model is still rocketing McCainward: tonight, he’s showing Obama trailing in expected EVs, 248.2-289.8, trailing in win probability, 43%-57%, and in expected popular vote share, 48.3%-50.7%.
So while the trackers and the RCP average peaked for McCain around Tuesday, 538’s peaking only now, assuming it’s peaked.
Electoral-Vote.com has McCain winning, 270-268, with Colorado, Iowa, and the Kerry states all still blue. We’ll see if it’s peaked yet; I doubt it.
Does the financial crisis kill the McCain/Palin bump? The news doesn’t have time this week to debate about who called whom a pig.
Yup, looks that way.
Statewide battleground polls don’t look too bad for Obama, either.
More national polls showing the Palin Bubble having burst.
Ok, the Americans are a forgiving people. If you say you’re sorry, they’ll let lots go by. If there’s no cover-up, there’s no (perceived) crime. That’s a given.
But isn’t there some limit? How can a member of the Keating Five sell himself as a regulatory reformer? None of the mainstream media, even those few liberals in the MSM, ever challenger the reformer by pointing out his past history. Phil Gramm be damned. It’s not a new thing. McCain was part of the cabal that helped the Savings and Loan Crisis, replete with credit crunch and bailouts, come into being. And it’s being ignored, presumably because he 'fessed up.
You folks in the States are a lot more forgiving than us (very polite) folks in Canada. Jean Chretien’s sins caused Paul Martin’s defeat. McCain’s sins are given a pass. Help me understand.
ETA: punctuation
Perhaps the unfolding financial practice will stick to him a little harder. There’s an interesting Washington Post story out: McCain Embraces Regulation After Many Years of Opposition
The Press here are basically either a bunch of pussies or in the pants of the Republican Party.
However, I actually heard one of the surrogates bring it up on one of the MSNBC shows yesterday, either Hardball or Rachel Maddow, I can’t recall. I was stunned and thrilled that they had the nerve!
Question is why isn’t Obama using the Keating Five attack? Maybe he is saving it.
I noticed McCain’s poll numbers started to go down once Obama started up with his latest attack ads. I just hope they keep going down.
See everyone, nothing to worry about. Stops hyperventilating. Obama’s got this under control.
Knocking Palin out of the news the past few days has helped, I"m sure.
Would Obama bring out Keating 5 at the first debate? That sounds like a plan.
He may not want to bring up the Keating 5 (or he may have been urged not to bring it up) because four of the five (all but McCain) were Democrats. It could possibly be an opening for McCain, or the Republicans in general, to attack Democrats.
Obama’s got so much more to work with.
Ed
Electoral-Vote.com doesn’t seem to be including these in their data. I wonder why not.
My mistake – he has them under “Opinion Research”. They were drowned out by the glut of ARG polls released.
The thing I don’t understand is why Obama isn’t shouting from the rooftops about McCain’s desire to move Health Care payments from pre to post tax.
Everyone I’ve mentioned this to, R and D says, “That’s crazy! What’s McCain thinking? I already pay too much for Health Care and now I get taxed on it too?”
Maybe they’re keeping it for the stretch run?
To me, the funniest thing was how Palin was supposed to split off and do her own thing for a while. Then McCain tanks in his appearances…so now she’s back to being his warm up act.
Hi-frickin-larious. Still going to be a race too close for comfort, though.
-Joe
I’m an eternal pessimist, but as long as Obama survives the foreign policy debate, I don’t really see how he can lose. There’s no way he’ll lose the last debate on the economy, it’s obviously not McCain’s forte. The financial implosion has made McCain’s strategy of distraction fail miserably, the economy will definitely be what people vote on. Doubt the ticket will get much relief from the VP debate either, Palin is truly clueless.
I wonder if McCain’s forgetting/not know who Zapatero is was a senior moment? If he repeats that in a debate…
ETA: Where is RedFury, he’s Spanish right? This only seems to be on the Spanish news, I can’t find a clear English version.
They, uh, weren’t speaking to McCain in Spanish. Perhaps he has his own problems with English?