TIME Poll: Women Flocking Back to Obama
New national numbers find McCain is losing female voters “faster than Sarah Palin attracted them after the Republican convention.”
Among women: Obama 55, McCain 38.
After McCain picked Palin they were virtually tied Obama 48, McCain 47. Before GOP convention Obama led 49 to 39.
electoral-vote.com now has Obama at 286 EVs, McCain at 190, 62 tied. Virginia has swung back to “Barely Dem,” and Ohio, North Carolina and Florida are now “exactly tied.” FWIW.
I’m pretty optimistic about an Obama victory at this point, hell i was optimistic about it during the height of the Palin bounce, but lets not forget when we started the whole Hillary is forked thing she was behind in actual votes with very few places to make them back,not just on the polls. People are fickle, i don’t really understand how someone can go from being 3-4 points up to 6-8 down in a matter of weeks, but if it can happen one way it can also go the other. So im not prepared to call McCain forked until those results start coming in on the 4th.
If you look at some of the state polls on electoral-vote.com for 2004 such as for Florida, the numbers were up and down and all over the place for Bush and Kerry in October. It looks pretty good for Obama now, but a lot can happen in a month.
I wonder if “I’m suspending my campaign” is code for “I’m desperately short on cash and I need my donors to send in more”.
But bin Laden must be desperately attempting to stage a terrorist event, since Bush has been, and presumably McCain would be such a great recruiting tool. And the Pubs must be desperately hoping for a terrorist event, although I’ll give most of them the benefit of believing they’ll be sincerely horrified if it happens (Rove not included). Will that hope be enough to allow it to happen? Or even make it happen?
I do not in any way believe 9/11 was staged. But, say, 10/2? Just in time to conveniently eliminate the VP debate? Or 10/23? I have no doubt that with the right connections, you could find some people who could filter the money down to some fanatics who would be happy to suicide bomb a major building in the US. It wouldn’t have to be on the same scale as 9/11. The recent bombing in Pakistan would be perfectly adequate. The important things are that it be fatal or injurious to a significant number of people - over fifty, say, and that it be traceable to Islamic fundamentalists, preferably from Iraq, but possibly from Iran. Either one is a winner for McCain.
Yes, but if you look at the overall poll aggregate (i.e., not just by state), Kerry was never ahead of Bush in the polls after late August. Granted, the margin was pretty close throughout, but still, Bush was ahead and stayed ahead.
Or Indonesia then we could invade Sudan…
Did you hear that when Palin heard Russia invaded Georgia she said if we had fought them over there we wouldn’t be fighting them over here then suggested calling out the Alabama National Guard to help the Georgians fight off the Russians…
Hush, Sarah, and go back to your geography lesson! 
Nate Silver’s said for awhile that the Q-poll has a Dem tilt, and for me this cinches it. Nobody else is coming up with numbers anything like these.
In FL, SurveyUSA had McCain +1, and Rasmussen had them tied, both taken 9/28. On the same date, PPP (which Nate doesn’t think has a Dem lean, but I do) had Obama +3. On the whole, the recent FL polling, other than Quinnipiac, has shown McCain with a diminishing lead, but still a lead.
In Ohio, the most pro-Obama polling result recently, other than by Quinnipiac, was Insider Advantage on 9/29: Obama +2. On that same date, SurveyUSA had McCain +1, as did Rasmussen on 9/28.
In PA, McCain’s never led in any legitimate poll, but no other recent poll (and PA’s been polled A LOT) has had Obama up by more than 8.
Looking at Q-poll’s latest Obama numbers feels like trying to make sense of hitting stats in Fenway. They’re making my “too good to be true”-ometer go apeshit.
Yeah, those numbers look wonky to me, too. How about these, just in from Time/CNN. . .
FLORIDA: Obama 51, McCain 47
**MINNESOTA: **Obama 54, McCain 43
MISSOURI: Obama 49, McCain 48
**NEVADA: **Obama 51, McCain 47
VIRGINIA: Obama 53, McCain 44
Dates conducted: Sept. 28-30. Error margin: Ranges from 3.5 to 4 points.
http://thepage.time.com/2008/10/01/more-data-shows-obama-battleground-strength/
They didn’t poll Ohio? Odd. In any case, those are some good-looking numbers. A real lead in Florida?!
HOLY COW :eek:
Missouri?
Yo gotta be kiddin…
Yes, but only by one point - well within margin of error.
Don’t get cocky, kid.
In other words, roll a die. If it comes up 6, McCain still wins. That’s not “forked” yet, though it’s getting close.
Of course, that’s based on the counterfactual “if the election were held right now”. There’s still plenty of opportunity for changes either way.
That was me, I think.
Yeah, but McCain’s hill is more slippery than Obama’s at this point.
Thing is that McCain is unlikely to go quietly into the good night. He will start coming up with more a more desperate moves trying to do anything to get one more chance at the dice. It’s a classic story arc for the compulsive gambler. The losing phase segs into chasing losses with larger and larger bets until the desperation phase kicks in completely as the losses just increasingly mount.
He will end this election looking quite pathetic but swinging all the way.
For example, tossing Palin overboard now makes no sense, but it would shake things up. If she tanks tomorrow night then he might just do it because any shake-up is a chance of a lucky roll, and this time Daddy’s goin to buy a new pair of shoes baby! Illogical stupid things, you pick which one - he might just do them - it’s the desperate pathologic gambler way.
I wouldn’t be surprised, DSeid. It’s consistent with his psychology, and from his standpoint, he has nothing to lose.
One thing I’m really sick of among Republicans is the whining. For a bunch of tough guys, they sure do whine a lot. Oh, the press isn’t fair to us! Poor us! The polls are wrong, too! We must be doing better than that! Of course half the time what’s so unfair is the truth. The other half of the time it’s legitimate criticism. America badly needs a break from their relentless self-pity.