So anyone want to guess how low McCain’s win percentage will go on 538 tonight? I’m guessing below 10%, maybe 7.
Dang. Being blown away in VA in two seperate polls, NC (Obama +6), nowhere close to picking off PA, losing NM, and both major national trackers (Gallup and Rasmussen) putting Obama by 8. Facing off against a vastly superior ground game.
Wow.
Neither are you. You’re just chattering on a message board, same as us - neither helping nor hurting. Just being part of the peanut gallery, like the rest of us.
The difference is, the rest of us aren’t getting on a high horse about how you’re not helping.
What does 538’s “win percentage” mean, anyway? I check the site daily but have never been able to figure that out.
I gather that using poll numbers and margin-of-error statistics, it’s possible to calculate for each state the probability of tipping one way or the other. Running all of those through a bigger calculation (apparently a Monte Carlo method of running a few hundred simulations using the calculated probabilities from the previous step) gives a probability that each candidate would win the national election if it were held today.
538 runs its model simulation 10,000 times for each up date. The win percentage is the percent that of the simulations that result in that candiate projected as winning. Full details available in their FAQs.
Not quite. 538 is based on trendlines, and the simulation predicts what will happen on Nov. 4th.
Today I drove by the headquarters of the Arizona Republican party. There were Obama supporters protesting right there.
McCain probably won’t lose Arizona. But, I loved the moment.
Where is it? Downtown? Is it at like Central and Camelback?
Well, I’m not so sure about us on a messageboard chattering away and NOT helping.
Ah, I see. It’s a two pronged strategy on their part. Where’s the forked tail?
Never mind–I was thinking of the Devil’s pitchfork and then his horns and so… I’ll go away now.
McCain calls Obama a liar, faults his Chicago ties
“Who is Obama really” seems like a really stupid question to cling to at this stage of the campaign. McCain’s been trying to define Obama for months. As witnessed by the polls, that effort’s been a failure. I guess McCain goes with what he’s got, even if it hasn’t worked before. Maybe with the added ‘liar’ stuff, it’ll work this time. I doubt it.
Liar?
First, Rezko, Ayers and past associations. McCain sure likes to open cans of worms lately, doesn’t he?
I thought he was talking about Palin, sort of a senior moment…
Of course. We need to know who a candidate is and what he believes.
But when we find out who McCain is, and what he believes, it’s a smear tactic.
24th street and Osborn.
This forking is taking an uncomfortably long time.
Well, it’s not like McCain is actually going to lose the election until Nov 4. Even Dole wasn’t technically dead until election day.
If only Obama had to go through a series of primary contests in every state in the union, and debate a group of experienced and smart politicians over 20 times over the past two years. But its like he came out of nowhere in the past few weeks.
What?
My god, you’re some sort of FREAK!