Or do we not know? Because I’ve seen a claim that this is so, and if so, wouldn’t it be a really huge swing for Romney, if my recollection of previous numbers is accurate?
(In addition to Virginia, as part of a generalized claim that the swing states are swinging towards Romney, but Ohio is the one that is most interesting, for obvious reasons.)
Yes. Two public polls have been released since the debate. Rasmussen has Obama +1 and WeAskAmerica has Romney +1 (which is funny, because generally Rasmussen is a bit kinder to Romney and WeAskAmerica seems to be a bit kinder to Obama). It’s essentially tied in Ohio now.
An Obama +1 by Rasmussen can safely be read as a +4 or +5 for Obama. I don’t know anything about WeAskAmerica to have an opinion on their polls.
I think you’re deluding yourself, but carry on.
Check out electoral-vote.com’s Rasmussen free page. Ohio polls on Oct 1 as O 50% and R 43%. Only by adding in Rasmussen do you get a picture of Ohio being in play. Even then using that site’s formula, they have O at 50% and R 46%. Plus this is polling that should account for any Romney debate “win” and the poll averaging system at electoral-vote has it as no closer than 4 points even at best case for Romney.
One can choose to believe Ohio is in play, but check back in a week. Even money says the gap is back to where it was before. Also, don’t forget that early voting in Ohio has begun. Romney’s time to convince people is rapidly dwindling.
WeAskAmerica is run by the Illinois Manufacturers’ Association, a pro-business trade group (against minimum wages, maternity leave, employee health care laws, etc).
I won’t say their numbers are “good” or “bad” and tend to go by the Nate Silver mantra that the point of polling aggregates is that you don’t have to stress yourself out litigating every individual poll. I’ll agree that it’s tightening in Ohio and time will tell whether Obama recaptures a clear lead, Romney takes a clear lead or if it’s a nail-biter on election night.
Why would I look at a page that apparently goes out of its way to exclude a significant polling firm? Just take whatever your reaction would be if I asked you to go look at http://www.unskewedpolls.com/ and insert it here on my behalf, ok?
If you’re under the impression that Romney didn’t win the debate, then you’re in a distinct minority. Gallup put it this way:
I’m sure we will, but hopes for the future don’t change the fact that, right now in actuality the polls show a very competitive race in Ohio.
As an Obama supporter, I think the threads on the Dope have very much had a “counting your chickens” feel to them over the last few weeks/months. I hope this last debate shows that it isn’t by any means over. I’m cautiously optimistic, but if the debate narrative for the next one turns out to be like the last one, it really is anyone’s game. I think Ohio can easily be back in the game unless the Democrats step up their game. I would not bet on this election, and I did bet on the last one (and won.)
Game.
Yeah, noticed that, too after posting.
No, I expect the states where Romney lagged Obama by a significant degree are not going to come back into play because of a debate (or even several debates).
I hope that’s true. Conventional wisdom would say that, but I just don’t trust the fickle American electorate. Intrade still has Obama as a 2-to-1 favorite, so the punters don’t quite think the race has evened up quite yet.
I still don’t understand why anyone gives a shit what Intrade says. It’s worse than useless.
For the same reason that they care what Nate Silver says: It’s comforting news.
Silver does statistical analysis based on polling data. Intrade is a self-selected group of blowhards or get-rich-quick-ers who bet on elections.
That’s certainly an important distinction between the two. It doesn’t alter my belief on why certain people turn to the latest Intrade values or Nate Silver projections. The same goes for people reading unskewedpolls.com or exclusively Rasmussen polls, or on the flip side, viewing electoral-vote.com’s Rasmussen-free maps. It comforts them, facts be damned.
Fair enough. That’s pretty much what you get when any individual seizes on any specific poll.
No, not really. That is just about what their polls lean towards the Republican side when compared to actual results, even results when the Republicans wipe the floor with Democrats like in 2010.
It’s just interesting to see what the betting markets predict. I take this in aggregate with all the polling. I’m guessing that Obama’s numbers are going to fall when today’s simulation on 538 is done. Right now, Nate’s numbers have him at 78.4%, but that was run yesterday. I suspect we might get down to 3:1 Obama, but we’ll see soon enough.
I think you’re deeply mistaken. According to Nate Silver, Rasmussen’s “house effect” is R + 1.3, which makes it the third most accurate firm of the 12 he gives house effect estimates for. Where is your cite?