Ladies and Gentlemen, Baghdad Bob!
Oof. I wonder if that’s going to drop Obama’s numbers below 70 in the 538 predictions. Anybody who thinks this election is almost a done deal is delusional.
ETA: Nate’s last two tweets:
I just got my absentee ballot in the mail. So until I send it in, Ohio is in play.
Campaign staffs, e-mail me about where to send the check.
As for the election, it’s still Obama’s, unless the Iranians explode a nuclear bomb and Obama says “You didn’t build that”.
Latest tweet from Nate:
I guess there’s no real mystery which direction things are headed either. What was the previous largest one-day swing?
Don’t know, it dropped about 3-4 points yesterday, so I’m betting my hunch about it possibly dropping below 70 is right. I’m going to guess 65-67%.
Ok, it wasn’t quite that bad. Down to 71.4% overall. Ohio to 72%.
So down from curbstomp to asskicking numbers?
Latest CNN poll for Ohio has Obama up 51% to 47%, which is close but also shows Obama over 50%.
Certainly a good poll for Obama, but taken in context with other recent polls, I think the answer to the OP is still “yes, Ohio is ‘in play’ for Romney, but Obama is still favored to win the state.”
shrug For me, a 1-in-3 chance of losing the election is not something I’m comfortable with, and wouldn’t characterize as “ass-kicking.” Just “comfortable, but surmountable lead.” The CNN Ohio poll gives me more optimism.
Because it’s high in the middle and round on both ends!
Because the trees are high in the middle. Just the right height, you know?
Just curious, BobLibDem, is there some number at which you’d be willing to concede that Ohio is again in play? If Nate Silver projects Obama’s chance of winning Ohio to be less than ___% will you be wrong?
Same question for the rest of you: At what 538 % do you consider a state to be “in play” or a tossup? less than 66-33? 60-40? 55-45?
55/45 sounds about right.
I can say with absolute certainty there’s no way those internals are right.
What’s not right?
After I asked this question, I saw that Silver rates each state himself. Virginia is currently 58-42 and he calls it a “Tossup” while Iowa is 66-34 and he calls it “Lean Obama” so I’m guessing his cut-off is 60-40, or maybe something a bit more scientific.
Romney won’t win men by 14 points and Obama won’t win women by 22 points. Romney will almost certainly win men (a different outcome from 2008 when Obama won men in the state) and Obama will win women as he did in 2008, but the gap between the two will be more in Romney’s favor as when compared to 2008.
I think he does it on vote share. IF both candidates are under 50% vote share, then it is a toss-up. If a candidate gets 50%-50.9% then it is lean, and above that it is likely.