I don’t know if this has been covered here, a search didn’t come up with much.
Is it at all likely that Osama is already captured? I know my first thought on the subject is that if they got him they would immedietly let it be known, but with the election so close a little bit of delay and the message “Was captured by Afghani people.” could make it seem like it happened a few days from the election.
Is it at all likely Bush has him in a cage on some base just waiting for a few weeks? He already tried (at least some say) to try and get high profile terrorists captured at the time of the DNC.
Well if he is, the Republicans better hope that by the time they make the announcement things haven’t gone so haywire all over the world that nobody even cares anymore about OBL. One ironic side effect to the “War on Terror” - OBLs are a dime a dozen these days.
What I always wonder about this theory is, how is it supposed to work unless he is silently killed? If he gets any kind of trial he would probably let us know whether he was kept hidden for months. Even if his credibility isn’t perfect, that could turn out very embarrassing.
Yeah, they could just hold onto him over there then shoot him. How much higher did his rating go after Saddam was captured? Just a few days before the election could put President Bush ahead in the swing states.
The left would cry foul but if they’re careful about it they could make it look like it was done at that time without any evidence.
But if this whole thing were to happen there would have to cover up any evidence to the contrary. Now that makes the whole thing unlikely.
Bearing in mind that, whatever your politics, the capture of this goddamned butcher is A Good Thing for the World (I spent 9/11/04 on a tour of Tribeca that included Ground Zero)…I don’t see how it could be kept a secret. Somebody always talks. Somebody always notices. Somebody sees something. Especially in that part of the world.
Among other problems with the October surprise theory, there’s one big one. If Bush was actually planning on doing this, he would mention bin Laden a lot more often. He would use every speech and every commercial as an opportunity to remind us that bin Laden is the real big bad guy. But these days you could follow the GOP closely and barely even guess that any such person as bin Laden exists, so I doubt we’ve got him sitting around anywhere.
The “Osama is already dead” theories are all based on the fact that we haven’t gotten any new tapes of him for over six months, not on finding a body, witness testimony, or anything else concrete. That article doesn’t present any new evidence, as far as I can tell. It could be that he’s just refrained from providing new tapes because he wants us to think he’s dead so that the pressure on the Afghanistan/Pakistan border region will be relaxed.
Well, a lot of the theory that OBL is now a DNA sample is based off of the fact that we hit a couple of key sites successfully (I got to see the gun camera, woo!). The doubt comes into play when we don’t have an accurate BDA to confirm the damage.
Assuming he wasn’t held for months, what’s to keep him from blabbing to the press that he was? I could catch him tomorrow, and treat him to a seven course meal, but he would end up screaming “police brutality” and that he was held for months against his will. His disinformation wouldn’t mean a thing except to his followers, and that’s what scares me.
Tripler
Unfortunately, I believe it’s only a matter of time before his followers start suicide bombing the U.S.
If Osama is captured or killed before the election, the left will scream about conspiracies and “October Suprises” to the high heavens. The truth won’t matter.
An Iranian news agency was saying that the Pakistani army had captured him earlier this year… but of course the stories were dismissed because it was an Iranian news agency.
If captured, it would be very hard to keep it secret and very embarrassing if they tried. He may be dead- who cares? Terrorism made Osama, not the other way around. If he is dead there are a thousand more where he came from.
I’m no lover of Bush (to put it mildly), but the theory that Bin Laden was captured ages ago and is being kept on ice for an “October surprise” strains credulity to the breaking point.
If Bin laden were captured Bush would no doubt through his elbow out while patting himself on the back for the collar. He would trumpet “his” success from sea to shining sea as soon as the capture was confirmed. He would not need to wait and time the announcement. Furthermore, to hide OBL away for months (years, or whatever) would risk the possibility of a huge scandal erupting right before the election.
Just a “me too” for Lance. I find the belief that the Republicans are keeping him on ice for an October Surprise is preposterous for the reason he gave, and you guys know how much I love a good conspiracy theory!