So far the war is going well for the aggressors, U.S. and British forces has advanced very quickly without much losses, and within the next 48 hours I suspect they will be knocking on the ports of Baghdad. But then what happen? Will they fight their way into the city?
I think not. The U.S., no, the public of the world has surprised me with their ultra sensibility for losses. Are people really that naive that they believe that a war can be fought without casualties?
Speaking on naive, did really the U.S. army expect to be welcomed with flowers and kisses?
Did they believe that the Iraqi army would surrender itself without a fight?
I don’t think they did, but that was one scenario presented to the public. This is not a war about liberation. Sure, most Iraqis I know of will gladly take a few bullets to get rid of Saddam and many of them has already done so, but I have not met a single one that wants a U.S. occupation.
Here’s three problems facing the alliance. To keep it short,
- U.S. and British casualties. So far not much but already people are shocked. Sooner or later the alliance have to take the battle to where the enemy is. The regime will not collapse by its own weight.
- Underestimation of the Middle east mentality. People wont stand for an occupation, and if Saddam or a local tribesman can present himself as a Saladin reborn, people will follow. Even if Saddam is removed, which I have no doubt about, many people will follow a man strong enough to defy the occupation power.
- Democracy can not be implemented in Iraq. When Tito died, Yugoslavia felled apart. I believe much the same will happen in Iraq and the world wont allow Iraq with all its oil to split up into three different countries. Therefor either A) a nondemocracy will be installed, or B) U.S. forces has to remain in Iraq for a considerable long time. In either case, the whole project will be viewed as a failure by much of the world.
I’m deeply worried about the current situation. I was strongly against this war, but now when blood is being spilled , my only wish is that it will be a short one, a devastating victory for the alliance and that all the scenarios presented by the Alliance will be profiled. Unfortunately, I do not believe that it will be the case.
So, what do you think? Fiasco?..…
And yes, my English is lame, hope you could understand though.