There’s obviously hundreds of books on blackjack, I don’t need one that tells me to play basic strategy, I’d like to find one that tells me the reason I play the hand that way. Why do I double down against a particular dealer card but not another, for example. Why does basic strategy change slightly based on the house rules and number of decks?
Thanks in advance!
There’s less of “why” and more of “how” in the basic strategy.
It was developed probabilistically, i.e. by computer simulation and thousands and thousands of trials, it was found that certain actions had the best (or least bad) outcomes in certain situations and given certain rulesets.
You can backtrack ‘why’ from there, but that smacks of post-hoc reasoning, i.e. making up a reason why observed phenomena work the way they do. The basic strategy is what it is because through repeated trial and error, it was found to be the best way to go.
Some of them are reasonable (hitting against a dealer 7 or better when under 17 yourself) but that’s still post-hoc reasoning and is still closer to finding a good ‘just-so’ story than the actual ‘why’ of it all.
No, it was calculated by constructing a probability tree. There is a limited number of possible outcomes for any action, and it it possible to calculate the odds exactly. In some cases, the tree is pretty large, and you need a computer to calculate every branch. But there is no random in the algorithm.
It is basic probabilities based on mathematics.
mmm
Yeah, I’ll let the others argue over whether someone just did the math or a bunch of computer simulations (which will simply arrive at the results of the math), it’s just probabilities. I have no idea if any books outline the actual probabilities, such as a dealer busting when showing a six 42% of the time (remember, we and they don’t see the other card yet), but some websites do and you can probably find what you are looking for.
Try this one:
I should speak to this as well. House rules can affect the probabilities which is why strategies can sometimes change. As for number of decks, unless you’re card counting, I don’t know why it would matter. You still have the same number of aces relative to other cards, even if you have twice as many, so the probabilities stay the same.
IF you are counting cards, that’s a completely different conversation as everything changes.
Mainly because a BJ pays 3 to 2 when the player gets it but only even money for dealer. The less decks, the lower chance of a pair, the more chance of a BJ
We’re talking a portion of a percentage difference. I get why the house does it, but why would a player’s strategy change (other than a strategy of choosing a table/casino with fewer decks in the first place). I’m no expert and I’m certainly not going to go do all of the math, so I’d love to learn.
If I’m already at the table, what is going to change in my strategy if the house uses 3 decks vs 6 and I’m not card counting?
I think that Basic Strategy does not change based on number of decks, it just affects some advanced card counting strategies. The RTP changes without the basic strategy changing.
That’s fair and I agree completely. I also know that often times the house will vary the rules based on the number of decks in the shoe to attempt to swing things in their favor, which changes strategy. I just hadn’t seen an example of actual strategy change based solely on deck count.
There are some differences in the basic strategy for a single deck vs multi-deck. They’re small enough that they won’t matter for anybody looking to spend a few hours playing blackjack on a weekend in Vegas or something casual like that.
You can check the Wizard of Odds site for the differences. One is what you do on a soft 18 with the dealer showing an Ace. In a single deck game, you’d stand on this, but on a 4+ deck game, you’d want to take a card.
Thanks! I thought this thread might be interesting and educational. I’ve never actually seen a single deck shoe at a casino. Is that a thing or is this for playing with friends or some underground blackjack den?
You can still find single deck games here and there but they’re almost never going to pay out blackjacks at 3:2. The last one I saw paid out 6:5. And I haven’t seen any tables like that center stage at a premium casino. More like on the side at smaller venues looking to attract a bit of business.
I most definitely fall into the casual player category. Prior to the pandemic, I’d visit Vegas once or twice a year for conferences. Thanks to my work, I do understand probabilities, so I play just well enough that i don’t get irrationally yelled at by people for “you took my face card”, who never happen to say “thank you for taking that face card” when the outcome goes in their favor.
Oh… this one time (was an rookie card-counter), I split 10’s, and nailed Aces on both of them.
A good night!
gangster meyer Lansky and a guy named arnold rothstein (even though he didn’t live to see it ) are the ones who pretty much wrote the rules for modern American casinos
In the 70s before he died in an interview he was asked the best way to win in a casino
His answer was “don’t” its all stacked against you so the interviewer kept at it and they went around in circles for a few minutes and lansky annoyed said " look if you have to gamble at all play black jack "
when the interviewer asked why blackjack (which was considered an old mans game ) He said you have an 11 to 17 percent chance of winning any one hand
He then mentioned that no matter how they worked it even after hiring college math professors they couldn’t erase that cushion with out outright cheating ie marked cards and the like
I hope that’s a misquote as that’s not even in the ballpark of the truth. Can you share the source?
Note: I absolutely agree that the best way to win in a casino is “don’t” for most people, although skilled poker players aren’t playing the house, which changes things.
in was in a&e biography type of thing where the reporter recounted the story
Well, either the reporter or Lansky were way off. Without cheating, your typical blackjack player wins slightly less than 50% of the hands. Your typical drunk non-blackjack playing sucker probably wins at least 35-40% of the hands. Without doing the math, I’d bet that I could simply adopt a strategy of hitting once every single hand, even if I have a blackjack, and probably win greater than 17% of the time.
No, that’s not correct. The EV is slightly less than 50%. That isn’t the same as 50% win.
I think the number of wins is probably closer to one third. But some of those wins pay double, and some pay 1.5.
And you’ll push (break even) about 10% of hands.