Ok, so at the moment we just have an ash cloud. No big deal. Anything else I should be concerned about, and if so, how concerned?
Well, aside from the air travel disruption, no, there’s really not much to worry about.
Now, if the mid-Atlantic rift zone decides to unzip a bit more and we get bigger/more eruptions it’s possible for enough ash to be thrown up to interfere with sunlight reaching the ground, which will screw up agriculture. In theory, if you had a big enough eruption it spew enough ash up that when it comes down again it might be sufficient to collapse building roofs, at which point it will be thick enough that breathing it is a hazard and ground vehicles won’t work very effectively, if at all, but that is VERY VERY unlikely.
If it gets that bad likely everyone in the Northern Hemisphere will be affected to some degree.
This most likely will be a hellacious inconvenience, but not a health hazard outside of Iceland.
If it goes on long enough first the European economy will take a hit (it already has, actually) then every one else will note a slow down/disruption in commerce. Again, not likely at this point but that could happen if this current situation last months rather than days.
See Year Without a Summer - Wikipedia. The year was 1816 and it was triggered by a low point in solar radiation combined with several volcano eruptions, followed by an eruption described as the worst in 1600 years. It caused a serious food shortage. Interestingly the decrease in global temperature was only an estimated .4 to .7 degrees C.
Most of us remember the eruption of Pinatubo in 1991 also caused a temperature decrease in 1992 of the same magnitude, but it didn’t appear to have caused world-wide agricultural disruption. I remember it as a cool summer, but nothing special. Perhaps because it was near the equator (Philippines) it had less of an effect in the north.
The Laki eruption of 1783 was unpleasant for Europe:
The Volcanic Explosivity Index is probably what we’re looking for. Some volcanoes (Kilauea, Stromboli) are nearly always active but have a very low index, producing relatively non-viscous lava and very little ash and gas. The explosivity goes up from there until ones with ultramafic lava, lots of gas and ash, erupting seldom, become the real news-getters. The threshold for significant climate effects seems to be around six on the index. Does anyone know what this volcano’s production to date is, where it would fit on this scale?
According to this: http://www.evropusamvinna.is/page/ies_Eyjafjallajokull_eruption the current eruptions are a 1 or lower.
If European agriculture output is effected, then they might be forced to eat genetically modified American crops with unknown consequences. They might decide they prefer American football to Soccer.
I suspect many would prefer starvation.
Volcanic soil is incredibly rich, so there should be a small net benefit there.
but what’s this cloud made of—volcanic soil, or volcanic rocks?
I remember from grade school that it takes a long time for the rocks to become soil.
I’m guessing that the “small net benefit” will only be good for the farmers of the next millenia.
But in the meantime, are Europeans going to be breathing a lot of bad dust?
Well, currently ambulance flights have been grounded in Norway. That’s going to have some repercussions, I expect. Air travel in general has been grounded for the last few days, which means a massive holdup in mail delivery as well as being able to move around in the country. (My father-in-law has a job interview in the south this week, we’re hoping he can make it by plane because it’s a 20-hour trip by car.)
As for natural consequences, well, we’ve actually had snow and hail this week. I’m not quite sure whether this is caused by the volcanic activity or just the local climate deciding to be a bitch, but that’s all the consequence I’ve noticed so far.
(If it isn’t clear, I live in Norway.)
The ash is already soil, from a plant’s point of view. When I was a kid, and Mt. St. Helens erupted, my parents had a friend living out where the ash fell. He sent me a jar of the stuff. Having learned in school that “volcanic soil” was particularly good for plants, I sprinkled a little on a plant I had growing in a flower pot. It shot up like a weed. A plant of the same species, planted at the same time in a different pot, that I had not put any volcanic ash on, just continued to grow the way both had been growing before. As far as European agriculture is concerned, this is a massive delivery of free fertilizer. Since the eruption and ash delivery is happening now, when it’s just time to start planting, they should be seeing major results in this growing season.
Actually, I think it’s rock dust from the plant’s point of view. Meaning it has lots of nice chemicals in it, which is great if the plant is short of those (people sell rock dust as a fertilizer), but I’d hesitate to call it ‘soil’. Soil supplement, maybe.
For the vast majority (if not all) of the European continent I suspect this is only true for a value of ‘massive’ equating to ‘indistinguishable from the normal sprinkling of dust from saharan storms, road dust, stubble burning, etc’ and for a value of ‘major’ equating to ‘indistinguishable from normal variation caused by weather’.
Soil is just rock dust. Any rock dust made by man is artificial soil. Made by a volcano, it’s natural soil.
As to your other point, I have no way to obtain figures for either quantities of dust from each source, or the relative value to plants of each source, so all I can say is you may well be right. We’ll see this fall at harvest time.
Um, no. It isn’t. Allow the dust to break down chemically over the course of a few years/centuries/millennia, and then you might have some soil. Usually you need some organic material into the mix as well.
I for one would, indeed, embrace death;)
The inorganic component of soil is indeed ‘rock dust’ – technical term, unconsolidated sediment. It comes in degrees of fineness from sand (individual particles visible to the naked eye) through silt to clay (individual particles require high-powered microscope to see). Fertile soil requires an organic component, termed humus, as well. This is produced by the decay of plants and animals through the work of saprophytic micro-organisms and the detritus of autotrophic micro-organisms growing on and breaking down the inorganic component.
“What else floats [in the atmosphere]?”
“Lead–lead!”
“Very small rocks!”
“A church!”
“A duck.”
“Who are you, so wise in the ways of science?”
One of those peasants was right. Small enough rocks will float long distances.
edit: A duck will also float in the atmosphere, of course.
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How the hell do you pronounce the name of the volcano? Slate’s Explainer produced a .wav file of some Icelandic dignitary pronouncing it, but it was… less than helpful.
In the immortal words of the Chelsea FC announcer:
“And now for the Olympiakos teamsheet - wish me luck!”
NPR said it once in this clip, but then appologized for the pronumciation. I don’t know how close they got.
This morning that had a joke in their coverage. Apparently there’s a rumor going around that the Iceland Economy’s last wish was to have it’s ashes scattered over Europe.