Is there much chance Obama won't be the next US president?

[Exapno_Mapcase]

July 23, 2011

@Exapno_Mapcase

Other than that, the election will be Obama vs. Romney, with Obama the winner. There is simply no enthusiasm for Romney as a candidate, while Obama is raising several times as much money as him, and AFAIK, a couple of times what all the Republican candidates are raising collectively. If he were consistently behind in every poll, I might think otherwise. But he is consistently ahead in almost every poll against specific names. (Single polls mean nothing. If the universe of polls don’t say the same thing, feel free to disregard any outlier no matter how tempting it looks.)

The power of incumbancy, plus more money, plus the demographic factor that the Republicans have alienated several large groups. That’s what any Republican has to overcome. I can’t see Romney being the one to do so.

I’m not giving myself any special pats on the back or celebrating my precience. I said those things because they were blindingly obvious. The only way the outcome could change was a huge outside event, and none of them ever occurred.

I will point out the line about never believing in individual polls. We should have made that a sticky. How many times since have people pulled a number out of context and tried to make something of it? Large amounts of silliness followed.