Strange women in ponds distributing swords is no basis for a system of government!
I’ll undoubtedly find Romney’s constant and feverish backtracking (if he is nominated) to be absolutely hysterical.
Given Obama’s record to date (and I mean his ACTUAL record, not the B.S. being flung around by the Right), his popularity (and he remains one of the most popular Presidents in decades, his approval ratings to date rivaling or beating those of Reagan in HIS first term), the relative weakness of the GOP contenders, and the very real possibility of a SPLIT in the Right-wing electorate, Obama is a virtual shoo-in.
To date, we’ve recovered 3 million of the 8.75 million private sector jobs lost under Bush and in the immediate wake of his administration. We are in the 22nd straight month of private sector job growth.
The relatively high unemployment rate (virtually all due to PUBLIC SECTOR job losses) is being used against him, but the only ones who buy the “worse now than ever!” and the “where are the jobs?!” hype are those with no intention of voting for him anyway (as far as they are concerned, he could crap gold and singlehandedly cure cancer and they’d attack him for undermining the gold market and putting oncologists out of work.)
bin Laden is dead (and roughly 40 other terrorist king-pins are likewise dead or detained) and Gadaffi is gone. Democracy is breaking out around the Muslim world and the war in Iraq is OVER.
Recent polls show Obama with 80% of Democratic support, 30% of Independent support, and even 3% of Republican support. He’s a pretty strong incumbent. ETA: the steep DECLINES in the polling numbers of the Tea Party and Congress since the Republicans took control make Obama’s numbers look even better.
There is not, at present, a candidate who could beat him. Unless the Right manages to come together around Romney (who is the ONLY candidate with a chance of besting Obama in a national race) they are doomed. And the far Right has already rejected Romney as a RINO and a “liberal”. The mainstream GOP base is not likely to strongly support a Gingrich, Paul, or Santorum (any more than they got behind Palin). They just might be able to come together and compromise, rather than hand the election to Obama. We’ll see.
It’s a long time in politics 'till November, and I’m not counting on it as a done deal, but pretty much, yeah.
Intrade prediction on Obama re-electionwent up nearly 1% today, to 53.4%. Such is the power of Newt.
Actually it could become just that, if she had enough swords . . .
One thing Obama could do right now, which would be a very classy gesture, would be to visit Santorum and his family in the hospital in Virginia(?) where they’re caring for Santorum’s daughter. Might help to mend some fences with the Republicans, especially if he did as a caring “colleague” without a media fanfare. Word would trickle out and it would make it tougher for the Republicans to demonize him.
…that sounds like a TERRIBLE idea. A physical visit–nah–there’s no way that doesn’t reek of politics. A phone call? Sure, could be nice.
If Obama and Santorum had some sort of relationship it would be sensible (like if it were Huntsman instead of Santorum).
I agree it’s way too easy for Republicans to criticize that as a political move. We’re talking about the same crowd who accused the President of trying to indoctrinate schoolchildren into socialism when he made a video stressing the importance of staying in school. :rolleyes: I mean the guy could single-handedly cure cancer and Republicans would find a way to make it sinister.
Let’s just all thank goodness that we have a president who is both too smart and too genuinely classy to intrude on worried parents in an effort to *appear *“classy”.
I think it would be a genuinely bad idea, regardless of politics. It’s a sick kid, and a worried family. They don’t need the intrusion of the entire presidential entourage and security apparatus getting in their way and causing a big hassle.
Even i as a fervent Obama supporter would believe it was done for political reasons and think he was an asshole for doing it.
Does anybody have any comment about Politico’s reasons why Obama should be worried?
From the link
My comment? Ground Control to Major Tom…
Politico also has a story today on how Newt can bounce back. How likely is that, really?
I don’t consider Obama a lock for reelection, but I think he has a strong hand. Pointing out that he isn’t a sure thing can either be a nuanced look at how he could lose the election, or it could be a journalist trying to stir the pot with a slightly provocative article. You be the judge.
I’m sure someone could also write a story headlined “Obama probably doesn’t have to worry.” Between this one and the one that was actually written, which of these do you think will produce more clicks?
Yes. There is an editor somewhere handing out these assignments: “Tom, you’re doing ‘Why Obama Should Be Worried.’ Jane, give me ‘How Newt Can Bounce Back.’ Bob, you get ‘Why Obama Isn’t Worried.’”
Why is the editor pissed at Bob? Jeez, he’s a nice guy and doesn’t deserve the story no one is going to read.
I’d say Obama has about a 60% chance of being reelected. If the economy continues to limp along and Romney is able to keep from sticking his foot in his mouth again, the President could quite possibly be defeated. Barring some major upheaval, if the economy picks up a bit and Romney reveals himself even more often to being something of a political klutz, Sasha and Malia could enjoy another four years of White House living. There’s certainly plenty of political ammo the Dems can use against ol’ Mitt.
In any event, I don’t think Obama will do as well as he did in 2008 - North Carolina and Indiana are almost certainly going to be out of reach for him this time around, for instance.
Given that Romney got Trump’s endorsement, I think it a shoe-in for Mr. Obama to retain the office.
Also, the First Lady did 25 push-ups on network TV.
heh heh heh
Charlie Cook surveys the evidence and declares: “For most of the past year, my own instincts were that President Obama’s chances of getting reelected were distinctly less than 50-50. They were certainly not hopeless, but unlikely. At this stage, it is less clear that that’s the case. But there is not enough evidence to call him a favorite.”
http://www.nationaljournal.com//columns/off-to-the-races/tipping-point--20120130
He notes that Obama’s polling numbers have firmed up slightly and the economy is a little stronger than it was during the first 9 months of last year. I’ll add that Europe appears to have set aside the odd concept of expansionary austerity: stimulus in that continent would have spillovers in the US. Also, it appears that Boehner will cave and extend unemployment insurance and the payroll tax cut. Negatives include continuing declines in federal infrastructure spending and budgetary retrenchment in the states. Both could be easily reversed, though they will not be.
Among other negatives for Obama, Romney squashed Newt like a bug in Florida, and I don’t doubt that he and his super-pacs can buy the remainder of the Republican primary race. So the long odds of the bloodletting extending to the Republican convention have gotten longer.
Decline in federal construction in 2011: America's Disastrous Public Sector Construction Plunge
Anyway, I’m currently giving Obama a 57% chance of re-election, due to the strengthening economy and the possibility of a upward blip in income growth.
I’m giving Obama a 60% chance on the strength of the Republican field and the public disaffection with the Tea Party and the Republican House.