Is Trump very very strong favourite in presidential race?

Politics & Elections
21

Jinx please !

22

Trump? Strong favorite?
He might be crushed in the biggest landslide America has seen since 1984.

23

Or not. My take: http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=19136145&postcount=2054

24

His chances are much better than I want to admit. And as long as he only has to win pluralities, rather than majorities, he’s going to rack up Republican delegates.

25

I wonder what his success (so far) means for future elections; will the Republican Party return to the days when the candidate was chosen in smoky rooms at the national convention?

26

We already did this. Thread about the same prediction by the same professor.

27

Or “did this again” (this thread predates the one you linked to)

28

Anyone opining here who hasn’t taken my poll on the subject, please come do so!

29

That’s kind of misleading. The guy’s model uses data that goes back to 1912, and the model he’s constructed fits the elections back to 1912. Here’s his actual paper, btw: