Israel crosses into Lebanon

How does fighting a country that’s attacking you win a war? Is that your question?

Guys, can we please avoid value judgments, finger pointing, historical claims, old grudges, new grudges, and ascription of rights and wrongs? I certainly make no claim to be any less judgmental about the situation than anybody else, but in this thread, just for once, let’s deal strictly with the probable practical effects.

I don’t think they will give them the vote. As losers of a war I think they we be handed their hats.

What else is required?

But that would give Israel a permanent population of noncitizens – making up nearly half the total population of the country. That’s fine for Saudi Arabia, but there’s no way Israel could do that and still claim to be a democracy. Comparisons with Apartheid South Africa would be inevitable, and justified, and unending.

I hope you will agree it goes without saying that expelling the Palestinians from the annexed territory, as some radical Israeli nationalists have been demanding for years, would be absolutely out of the question.

The word “strictly.”

So you want to deal ‘strictly’ with the possible consequences, while ignoring the situation and what factors might be changed by current actions?

How, exactly, can you attempt to get at the consequences if you can’t even discuss the factors that are under discussion?

If you’re going to claim that something will change, you have to be talking about that ‘something’ which will change. No? Should this be a discussion in a vacuum where we can’t even discuss the issues that are supposed to change? What’s the point then?

“Something will change into something else, but I can’t tell you what that thing is, or what the change will be.”

No, I want to deal strictly with all of that, while ignoring who’s right and who’s wrong and who’s the aggressor and who’s the victim, etc.

Any ideas as to how Iran would be involved in the conflict? Via missiles through Iraqi and Jordanian airspace? Or would they try to put troops in Syria via “Kurdistan?” Or transport them via air or sea into Jordan or Saudi. However, I haven’t heard much saber-rattling from either of those countries, though I might have missed something. Any info or ideas would be appreciated.

I Don’t see Iranian troops leaving their borders. they don’t have the logistics for it and Israel can wipe out any standing army in the region. If anything it will be long range attacks with missiles from Syria or Lebanon.

That’s a contradiction. You can’t talk about, for instance, stopping Lebanon from proxy acts of aggression unless you are able to talk about Lebanon using proxy forces for acts of aggression. Which, by the way, is pretty much what I did; I pointed out that Israel is waging a campaign against Lebanon and that its most likely outcome would be to get Lebanon to stop funding and arming its proxy force.

That is within the scope of your OP, no?

Well, Iran and Syria have a mutual defense pact. Bush has said that the USA will defend Israel. Iran sees the USA as complicit in all of Israel’s actions. So if Israel attacks Syria, then Iran could very likely (a) launch missiles through Iraqi airspace into Israel and (b) attack US forces in Iraq with missiles, artillery, poss. ground troops.

Those automatic alliances are a real bitch, as we all learned in WWI. Or rather, didn’t learn, apparently.

Maybe, if they’ve managed to buy that kind of long-range missile technology, which is uncertain. If they’ve been buying from China, well, China has missile technology up to the ICBM level, doesn’t it?

Not through Iraqi Kurdistan. The Kurds wouldn’t allow it, nor the U.S. And Syria and Iran share no common border.

My guess is, SA wants to stay out of this (without dropping its nominal hostility to Israel). So does the Jordanian government; millions of Jordanian citizens are Palestinians and might jump at the chance to get on the fight, but I’m sure the king just wishes the whole thing would go away. So, no.

Roads and bridges are what a country needs to function. You might as well burn the crops and claim it’s just a military strike, and wave away the starvation of the people.

I seriously doubt that. It will make not supporting Hezbollah ( or failing them a similar group ) political suicide. Did 9-11 make supporting Bin Laden popular in America ?

This is futile. Even is Israel instantly vaporized every single member of Hezbollah, more would step forward. At best, they might eliminate Hezbollah as a “brand name” while a similar group takes it’s place. I don’t have a good solution, but this isn’t one either; it just strengthens their enemies and kills innocents.

Sort of a catch-22, isn’t it? Maybe someone should see the light and not continually try and stab Israel in the back while waving their hands and claiming they have no control over the nasty terrorists/militia.

I suppose Israel should just surrender then and happily bear their throats to the blades…ehe? Or maybe they should just shut up and take it whenever someone attacks them…they deserve it no doubt. :dubious:

Personally I think you are wrong…I think that this MIGHT work, if Israel is able to hold a hard line on this (doubtful I know…so far no hue and cry from The World, a.k.a. Europe, on this…but I can feel one building). Certainly the peace process hasn’t yielded dick for them and nothing else seems to be accomplishing anything…maybe its time to drag this all out in the open and expose the various proxy string pullers to some fire…maybe THAT will finally resolve this. Hezbollah can gnash its teeth and tear its hair all it wants…but it will be a paper tiger if the various powers in the region stop giving it money and arms. Maybe those powers WILL finally stop giving those arms and funds…if they feel they may get hammered themselves. As Lebanon is currently getting hammered.

Seriously, this situation can’t continue like this, dragging on year after year, with various groups (many acting as proxy’s for outside nations who just don’t want to stick their own necks out) taking pot shots at Israel and its citizens. Things will never move forward…Israel rightfully feels constantly under threat. Why SHOULD they attempt any more unilateral gestures like Gaza when it doesn’t seem to help them at all. Why should they make any concessions at all if they feel it will only make them weaker and further compel the loons on the other side to violence??


As an analogy that’s pretty much worthless. For one, people do not generally starve because roads become difficult to travel. For another, crops are not a valid target of war, but roads are.

Or was the 4th Geneva Convention written by sadists?

And yet, there are definite reports out of the region of Lebanese blaming Hezbollah for drawing Israel back into their country. Funny, that.

And without state sponsorship I’m sure that their pea shooters will cause great consternation.

Again, without state sponsorship, where does this new group get its rockets? If Lebanon actually cracks down on them, where do they get their safe haven?

Your political view seems to be based on false analogies and ignores nuance. The Saudis blame Hezbollah. They were joined in their condemnation by Jordan and Egypt. Many Lebanese blame Hezbollah.


Don’t be so sure that a 9/11 analogy will hold water.

War always kills innocents. When one country (Lebanon) commits an act of war upon another (Israel), and that country defends itself, people will die. But the fault lies with the aggressor, not the country defending itself.

And as I’ve already pointed out, this is already having an negative effect on Hezbollah’s support.

Or rather didn’t learn, indeed.

I didn’t realize the two had a mutual defense arrangement. Consider your part of fighting ignorance done for the day. Thanks.

Israel will lose many brownie points on this. Whereas not many people would oppose them going after Syria or Jordania for harboring (harbouring?) Muslim terrorists, Lebanon is just the wrong target.

Why? They, too, harbor, finance, and equip terrorists with weapons and use them as a proxy force. And, evidently, the fact of Iran’s involvement is making many other Arab states in the region very nervous.

Their cities are being bombarded by rockets. You think they are worried about ‘brownie points’?

Israel is in a fight for its survival. As usual. There isn’t another country on the planet that would tolerate having its cities shelled without responding at least as strongly as Israel is responding. Any government in Israel that had tried to do less would have fallen. Something like 86% of Israeli citizens approve of what their government is doing, and I’ll bet you of the 14% that don’t, some of them wanted an even stronger response.

If you fire rockets at a country, this is what happens. If you are a government that allows extra-governmental groups to amass rockets on your border, this is what happens if they use them.

Israel is not only trying to send a message that this will not be toleranted, but it is taking concrete steps to ensure that it won’t happen again. Either Lebanon will remove Hezbollah from Israel’s borders, or Israel will re-occupy that portion of Lebanon to protects its citizens. Nothing else will do.