Israel Plans to Attack Iranian Nuclear Facilities

[Tuckerfan]

Using mini-nukes on some of the facilities.

Israel has drawn up secret plans to destroy Iran’s uranium enrichment facilities with tactical nuclear weapons, Britain’s Sunday Times newspaper said today.

Citing what it said were several Israeli military sources, the paper said two Israeli air force squadrons had been training to blow up an enrichment plant in Natanz using low-yield nuclear “bunker busters”.

Two other sites, a heavy water plant at Arak and a uranium conversion plant at Isfahan, would be targeted with conventional bombs, the paper said.

I’m sure this is going to go over well.

[Seven]

I f they are “secret plans”, how come we know about it?

[Der_Trihs]

@Seven

I f they are “secret plans”, how come we know about it?

Because someone found out, or leaked them, or so on.

[Ice_Wolf]

Some of the online blogs are discussing whether it’s BS or not. No response from Israeli officials but plenty from Iran.

Iran came out strongly in response to a report on Sunday that Israel planned to attack Teheran’s nuclear sites, declaring that any attack would be met with a response and that “anyone who attacks will regret their actions very quickly.”

[Alessan]

@Der Trihs

Because someone found out, or leaked them, or so on.

Or maybe Israel leaked it on purpose.

[Der_Trihs]

@Alessan

Or maybe Israel leaked it on purpose.

Sure. They can threaten Iran without actual officially doing so. Not that it’s a good idea.

[Sam_Stone]

Exactly my thinking. Leaking this could accomplish several things:

1. Put pressure on the Iranians at a time when Ayatollah Khamenei many not be long for this world. If there’s a power struggle, perhaps a real threatening posture by Israel could get the hardliners in some trouble. It’s one thing to build popularity at home by thumbing your nose at the Great Satan and rattling your sabers with Israel. It’s another thing entirely if the more moderate leadership realizes this could turn into an actual shooting war.

2. Put pressure on the U.S. to do something about Iran. If the U.S. launches an attack on the Iranian nuclear facilities it would be a lot less destabilizing for the Middle East than if Israel did it. This puts the U.S. on notice that if they don’t do something, Israel will. Then the U.S. has to weigh the pros and cons and decide.

3. There’s also new leadership in the U.N. Israel could be putting pressure on the U.N. to do something more than just wagging their fingers and clucking at Iran.

4. They could actually be putting this out preparatory to an attack, to make sure the world understands that these were small tactical nukes, with measures taken to control fallout, and avoid the blanket, “ISRAEL NUKES IRAN” headlines. This is the scary possibility.

[Seven]

@Der Trihs

Because someone found out, or leaked them, or so on.

I know. I was just being a smartass.

[Wildfire_MM]

it could be psychological warfare

[carnivorousplant]

@Sam Stone

If there’s a power struggle, perhaps a real threatening posture by Israel could get the hardliners in some trouble. It’s one thing to build popularity at home by thumbing your nose at the Great Satan and rattling your sabers with Israel. It’s another thing entirely if the more moderate leadership realizes this could turn into an actual shooting war.

I disagree. Remember that some of the locals, while agreeing that Saddam was a monster, thought it appropiate that he stand up against his accusers at his trial.
I think there is some Klingon honor/testosterone thing that would cause them to lose face and look like weenies if they were to back down. I think they’d honorably turn the joint into a glass parking lot.

[Bosda_Di_Chi_of_Tricor]

Or, it could be total BS, emmitted by a London rag eager to peddle newspapers.

http://www.judeoscope.ca/breve.php3?id_breve=3026

This is not the first Times’ bogus story on “secret” Israeli defensive plans. Such bogus stories damage Israeli foreign policy and diplomacy, give Iran the opportunity to rhetorically flex its muscles, and put Israel at the center of concern over the Iran nuclear question, when in fact the issue is of great concern for the entire region.

Apparently, the Sunday Times has a long history of meeting some bloke in a pub, buying him 2 drinks, & believing everything he says about Israel. :rolleyes:

More

Google News

The best summary of the situation–

http://www.bloggernews.net/13634

At first glance, the entire story smells of a fabrication. The obvious reason being that if Israel had secret plans to nuke Iran, they likely wouldn’t have been leaked. If they did get leaked, the police better start dredging the Sea of Galilee for the bodies of those involved. More importantly this leak gives huge benefits to Iran.

Israel is not stupid. A tactical nuclear weapon would likely do very little for a protected underground bunker. It is possible that either Drudge or the London Times doesn’t know precisely what a tactical nuclear weapon is. However, the fact remains in order to really do damage to the facility an ICBM (a strategic nuclear weapons) would need to be used. The momentum of a missile coming down from low earth orbit would be necessary to burrow deep enough to do the damage desired. There is indication that even then, the strike might not be successful.

[jjimm]

@Bosda Di'Chi of Tricor

Or, it could be total BS, emmitted by a London rag eager to peddle newspapers.

Could be, but the Sunday Times (which is, incidentally, a fairly respectable conservative broadsheet, and a member of News International’s portfolio, along with Fox News) has been severely embarrassed before by not source-checking carefully enough. They’re pretty paranoid these days about verification.

Apparently, the Sunday Times has a long history of meeting some bloke in a pub, buying him 2 drinks, & believing everything he says about Israel. :rolleyes:

Guess what: sometimes they’re right (the Mordechai Vanunu story).

Personally, I’ll reserve judgement, but instant dismissal is probably as ill-conceived as instant belief.

Further, planning various kinds of assaults - some of them unpalatable - is what military strategists do. If Israel’s defense forces weren’t doing it, they wouldn’t be doing their job properly.

[Gorsnak]

I’m not sure what the big deal is. Of course Israel has drawn up plans for attacking Iranian nuclear facilities. Probably they have a dozen such plans ranging from minor stealthy aerial incursions to all out nuclear strikes. They’d be idiots not to have made such plans. So? Will the next late-breaking news be that Syria has drawn up plans to retake the Golan Heights? Shock! Horror!

[athelas]

Exactly. The business of the military, or part of it, is exactly to plan for the worst-case scenarios. It would be deeply worrying if they did not make any such plans.

[Sam_Stone]

I agree that there should be plans for all contingencies. The question is why would it be leaked, if in fact the leak was intentional on the part of the military?

[threemae]

I most sincerely doubt this report.

If Israel wanted to attack Iran’s nuclear capability, I promise that they would do so via conventional weapons. To use tactical nuclear weapons is to enter onto a slippery slope that no sane state dares to tread. How do you draw a moral line between a .5 kT nuke and a 1.5 kT nuke? And how in the world would Israel prevent escalation to full blown nuclear weapons.

No, I’m pretty confident that this report is bull shit.

[Der_Trihs]

@threemae

I most sincerely doubt this report.

If Israel wanted to attack Iran’s nuclear capability, I promise that they would do so via conventional weapons.

As I understand it, they can’t, not to any effect. The facilites are too dispersed and too hardened.

[Plan_B]

IIRC, there was no news coverage of the Entebbe rescue before it happened. So what can we conclude? I don’t know, but probably all of the above guesses have some value.

[newcrasher]

Don’t we have “plans” to nuke Canada, England and Bermuda?

You know, just in case?

[Diceman]

@Der Trihs

As I understand it, they can’t, not to any effect. The facilites are too dispersed and too hardened.

The Iranians aren’t stupid, and they’re not poor. Israel has launched these sorts of preemptive airstrikes before, so Iran has probably taken measures to protect their Good Stuff[sup]TM[/sup] from another round of bombings. Plus, I expect that the last couple of wars have probably given them a pretty good idea of what the state of the art is regarding things that go “Boom!”