Yeah, I saw the scooter thing here…
http://www.cputweak.com/it.html
It could be what they (Jobs, et al) are talking about, but they would have to be seriously delusional if they are.
In some ways this is a plausible choice for “IT”. It could be a combination of his new wheelchair technology with his new stirling engine technology. IT could stand for “Individual Transport”. IF (and that’s a big if) this were to catch on, then cities might be retrofitted for them in that “scooter paths” and that sort of thing would come into existance. It could possibly (unlikely, but possibly) replace a lot of cars for commuting purposes. The regulatory problems mentioned would also exist; there are obvious safety problems and liscencing/operation issues involved.
BUT… this is hardly a breakthrough on the scale of the PC or the Internet. It’s a powered scooter that can hop over curbs. Big deal. Powered scooters already exist, and they are hardly taking the world by storm.
Obviously, if this is “IT”, they are seeing it as a replacement for the automobile. Not likely. Let’s look at the problems.
First, how fast does this thing go? My commute is 35 miles each way daily. Even accepting that my commute is longer than normal, I still can’t see this being a useful commuting device unless it goes at least 30 mph. A collision at 30 mph would hurt. My car has lots of metal around me, not to mention things like air bags and seat belts to protect me in a collision. This thing has nothing. (I assume the rider would be wearing a helmet, but that isn’t much.) If this thing moves at any useful speed then many people would find it fairly dangerous. (Of course, they did mention regulatory problems and question if people would be allowed to use it. If this is “IT”, then they are probably correct there…)
Second, as alluded to above, the scooter thing here is open. That means that in cold weather the operator will get cold, in hot weather they will get hot and when it is raining they will get wet. My car is enclosed and has climate control.
Third, this is a fairly small vehicle so forget about dropping the clothes off at the dry cleaners on the way to work. No storage space. For the same reason, don’t try to pick up the groceries on the way home or drop the kids off at soccer practice. Which leads to…
Fourth, this is a one passenger vehicle. Forget going out to lunch with someone (unless they take their own scooter). And it isn’t going to be of much use to anyone who has to worry about someone who can’t drive. No dropping the kids off at day care, school or soccer practice. And I could never take my dog with me.
Fifth, the reason for the secrecy around “IT” is supposedly that old-line companies would either try to block IT’s introduction or try to steal IT for themselves. Again, powered scooters already exist and this particular variant shouldn’t be that hard to replicate.
Finally, does anyone really think we would redesign cities for this thing? We can’t even get bicycle trails built today and sidewalks are becoming things of the past. And there are lots of bike riders, walkers and joggers already.
So, either this isn’t “IT” or the people involved need a serious reality check. I think both statements may be true.
