This is largely my view as well, replacing “Wall Street” with the more generic “The System”. Trump’s heavy-doom-and-gloom resonated more than Clinton’s “we’re already great” (I know, that was Michelle Obama’s speech) because doom-and-gloom is what a majority of people are actually experiencing economically.
It basically shows that for households at the 50th percentile of income and lower, their inflation-adjusted incomes started rising in the early-to-mid 90s. They peaked around 2000 and have been largely declining ever since, with the exception of a short lived bump right before the Great Recession. There was a significant improvement 2014-2015 which may indicate that a real recovery might be taking hold; we’ll have to see what this year’s data shows. But the 50th percentile and lower still haven’t returned to their 2000-level incomes, and one good year doesn’t wipe out the memories of 14 bad years in any case.
60th percentile did return to their 2000-level incomes in 2015, and those at higher income levels are in clear recovery and improving (although higher incomes never suffered to the degree of the 60th percentile and below households anyway).
The charisma/personality aspect of the candidates matters, but the message you deliver has to feel real to the audience.
McCain was swept away by the financial crisis. Romney failed with nothing earth shattering going on and unemployment still high and economy sluggish under Obama (whether his fault or not). That clearly showed Obama and team as much better at winning an election than Romney, though hard to say how bad Romney actually was. The past two Democratic presidents have both been extremely good at campaigning for themselves, and not much good at helping their party when they weren’t on the ballot themselves.
Maybe that says more about a change in politics than those two men, Bill Clinton and Obama, or about the Democrats. The GOP’er in the same era GWB, had huge approval problems of his own by '08 and not so strong even in '04. Maybe the next GOP president with decent approval rating, be it Trump or some future one, will also tend to see erosion of his party’s fortunes over his term despite it. But HRC’s loss caps a stark track record of Democratic erosion under Obama (state legislatures, governor’s mansions, Congress) over his terms, except when he himself was winning elections.
Who didn’t agree with what? It’s difficult to look at someone who will willingly vote for a guy who says blatantly racist, sexist, demeaning stuff and not wonder what’s wrong with that person.
Powers &8^]
When we look at the comparative examples like the example of the Italian Berlusconi, the corrupt behavior in the private sector is a good indication of the comportment of the person when they enter the politics.
It is hard to see how there is any rational basis to say “big difference.” Indeed the evidence says completely otherwise.
Or someone who would willingly vote for a woman who is corrupt, dishonest, deceptive, doesn’t think rules or laws pertain to her, and has been part of the insider government class for 40 years, and wonder what is wrong with that person.
For the record, I didn’t vote for either of them. I voted for Johnson. But given Hillary and Trump, I’d rather see what happens with Trump than trust Hillary with any power.
Most people will vote based upon the candidate they believe will help their personal financial situation the most. They will overlook character issues, national security issues, like-ability, experience, foreign policy, etc. if they believe they personally have a chance of being financially better off.
And the country gets all those extra electoral votes, because rural states with small populations nevertheless get two senators each. Each state’s electoral allotment is equal to the sum of their Representatives and Senators.
I think the Democratic party has a lot of good ideas but they need to moderate. Yes, discrimination is bad but so is being a professional victim. Yes pollution is bad but everyone who drives a car or has stock in Exxon isn’t a monster. Yes guns are used to kill people but people are the ones pulling the trigger.
We need some middle of the road solutions that address the problems but still allow for personal freedom and economic prosperity.
False equivalency! Even if there was evidence that she’s corrupt and dishonest (which there isn’t, at least no more than that showing that Trump is, or any typical politician), those are not personal assaults on the very fiber of Americans’ beings. And she denies the accusations; Trump does not.
Powers &8^]
I have to agree with the poster who said that the “This election outcome is a foregone conclusion” narrative in the media greatly hurt Hillary. Anytime you tell people that, it makes people rebel against it. It’s human nature. Tell everyone that Alabama is going to crush such-and-such a team in the national football college championship, and that will make many people root against Alabama out of sheer spite.
Another thing that contributed to this ‘bubble’ was that liberals often do “mirror imaging;” namely, thinking that one’s opponent thinks the same way they do. Not to single you out personally,** Boyo Jim**, but when you said in the other thread that Trump wouldn’t get 40% of the vote because many Trump supporters would eventually have a change of heart and vote for someone else - that surely they wouldn’t ***really ***vote for such a person as Trump - that was a prime example of this mindset.
Okay, this is what I don’t get. So is Trump. He’s horrific, unlikable in spades, so dishonest that there’s probably not a single contractor who has ever worked for him that would do so again and corrupt enough to have how many lawsuits going for him at once, not to mention multiple sex scandals. So why does that make him a better choice than her?
You’re right. I said it myself in the title. I was in a bubble. Perhaps the Republicans are too, but if so their bubble is apparently bigger than ours.
Fair question. As I described choosing between Clinton and Trump, it’s like trying to decide whether you want your foot run over by a steamroller or locomotive. So I chose Johnson.
But, if I’m forced to choose between Clinton and Trump, I choose Trump for three reasons. One is the Supreme Court, and I’d rather take my chances that Trump will pick someone better than Hillary. Two, I’m a libertarian and want a more limited government. Trump is an authoritarian, but he’s less of a big-government proponent than Hillary. Third, I don’t have much faith that Trump is ethical or honest, but at least he’s not as much of an ingrained part of the Washington government-media circle-jerk, and there is a slight chance that he can shake things up.
I personally was not in a bubble, except in the sense that everyone in the country was, since no one had accurate poll numbers and a “gut feeling” isn’t enough to be considered well-informed.
But I was on record as saying that the polls in the old industrial North could be off, due to Trump’s appeal to the demographics there.
One could certainly argue that corruption and dishonesty from an elected official (as Clinton was as Senator) or a Cabinet Member (as she was as Secretary of State) are in fact “personal assaults on the very fiber of Americans’ beings”. Whether it’s ‘correct’ or not, we do hold our government officials to a higher standard of conduct than we do private citizens.
As for the fact that “she denies the accusations; Trump does not”…what difference does that make? For those who believe that Hillary lied, the fact that she denies it makes things even worse; at least Trump owns up to his misdeeds.
I think every liberal should listen to talk radio from time to time to get a bead on what conservatives are seething over.
I am never surprised by what they say or think precisely because I listen to what they have to say. Most hosts rarely field liberal callers, and when they do the caller might get a tiny point in before the host mutes them and goes on a monologue for 20 minutes into a break. Michael Medved is a rare exception. More than that, there is so much nonsense spouted off chaining from one caller to the next, the wall of unchallenged dogma is often enough to sour any non conservatives bothering to listen further. I can’t listen to Hannity at all, as an example, he is too much of a concentration of partisan hacky bullshit for me to stomach, but he has millions of eager listeners. And guess what? In all those rural areas in bum fuck nowhere states and counties, that IS the entertainment! Listening to hour upon hour about how the country has gone to shit, and it’s all obamas/liberals/democrats fault. How people are going to come for their guns (GREAT for gun makers because the rubes get to buying in a frenzy), selling gold to hedge against the pending economic collapse, laser focused on the national debt as the single most important metric, because as we all know, national debts are NO DIFFERENT than private debt and must be treated the same way.
This kind of shit and more is what they listen to every day for weeks on end. I urge every liberal with the slightest bit of curiosity to listen up, you need to know who you are trying to persuade or defeat.