It's getting worse for Hillary

Actually, I just read an article that said the mail server was a new install.

I think the two things, besides some super secret info on her mail server, that
could sink her are the bad judgement angle and her obvious lies.

We elect a President, among other things, to make judgement calls. Clinton’s horrid judgement in this case is hard to justify. ‘I put national security at risk because I didn’t want to carry two devices’ is a hard sell.

And her denials are starting to look like straight up lies.

Slee

Meh. Jeb isn’t looking so hot either.

The country is far different from how it was in 1972. What’s your point?

Her denials have been assessed: They’re straight up bullshit.

I’m cool with Trump v. Sanders anyway.

It’s obviously much different but peoples political considerations are malleable. Voters who would never have considered Sanders before may listen to him in after being disillusioned by those they trusted before. In that regard the country isn’t that much different now, there are a lot of people who feel betrayed by the establishment candidates who took them down the wrong path.

Muh anecdotal evidence. You do realize the black vote, which overwhelmingly supported Obama in 2008, currently supports Hillary by similar margins even as she retains her leads the last time amongst Hispanics, working-class whites, and women?

That’s now. Guess who can turn that around by endorsing Bernie?

I guess we can put you in the unenthusiastic column.

I know it’s over a year away, but have you given any thought to which party you’ll vote for in the general election?

Once again I have to remind you of 2007.

August 2007 among black voters:

– Pew Research: Hillary Clinton 47%, Barack Obama 34%

And it was even worse three months later in October:

CNN: Clinton 57%, Obama 33%.

No one has the black vote sewn up now, least of all Hillary, who, may I remind you black voters abandoned in droves after what the felt was a very racist campaign she ran against Obama. If you think they’ve forgotten or forgiven, think again.

I find it incredible that I’m constantly providing historical and current polling and other trending data along with links to sources to back up what I’m saying, and all I get from Hillary supporters is foot stomping, speculation and whining.

That is the key. Black voters will put her over the top, although Sanders is working hard on that problem.

More speculation based on no evidence. She needs 90-95% of the black vote to beat Sanders. She won’t get that much. She isn’t even polling at that much now, and the more black voters, just like every other demographic, get to know Sanders, the more the scales will tip even further toward him and away from her.

Shayna, not everyone who thinks Hillary is going to win the nomination are “Hillary supporters”. I thought Romney was going to win the 2012 Republican nomination, did that make me a Romney supporter?

Hillary is very likely to win the nomination. Sanders is an extreme long shot. Doesn’t mean it can’t happen, but wanting him to win and predicting he’s definitely going to win are two different things.

No point in arguing with the fanboys.

I highly doubt Nate Silver is a “fanboy”. So far I’m sticking with him and his track record.

I don’t think that says what you think it says. It’s talking about winning the general election against a Republican. Are you suggesting Sanders is going to switch affiliations and win the Republican nomination?

He still isn’t willing to say he is a Democrat: http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/08/bernie-sanders-2016-democrats-121181.html

Oh, I’m not suggesting for an instant one wants to peak this early or that Trump’s “candidacy” is anything other than a PR stunt.

Predicting this sort of thing this far out is a fool’s game. My point is merely that Clinton is, let’s be honest, a default candidate, not a terribly interesting one. She could be defeated by a more interesting candidate, though none seem to be interested in running.

It is interesting to compare her to her husband; who in August of 1991 thought Bill Clinton was going to be the next President? Who thought he’d even be a nominee? Obviously some did or else he couldn’t have even started the campaign, but as of this point he wasn’t much known outside Arkansas. I would think at this point the Vegas favourites would have been Tom Harkin and Jerry Brown. Clinton wasn’t the clear favourite until a huge win on Super Tuesday.

He had already been anointed a Rising Young Star when he was chosen to make Dukakis’ nominating speech in 1988. He was always in the top tier of candidates then, along with Jerry Brown and Paul Tsongas. Yes, the best bet was that Poppy Bush would be re-elected, but it was never a stunner that Clinton was the Dem nominee.

That’s mostly true, but like O’Malley today he polled REALLY low because of lack of name recognition. Governors often start out at a disadvantage in early polling and Clinton was no exception.