My assessment of an inconclusive video is that it is inconclusive. Her assessment of the event is not necessarily infallible and to be honest I’ve not seen her statement to know in what context she uses the word “push”. Do you have a link to her words?
How did the police identify the guy?
OK then, The way I view it suggests to me an 80/20 accident/deliberate, what figures would you put on it?
No need to try and paint me as on the side of the jogger. I’ve said often and repeatedly that he’s an arsehole and deserves much of the ire coming his way. Do I think she is sincere? yes. Do I think she has perfect recollection of the incident itself, the lead up to it and the motives of the jogger?..no. Doesn’t make her a liar it just makes her human.
I come back to sport. We have multiple high-resolution, super slo-mo, crystal clear zoom from multiple angles and yet we still have three experts in the commentary box unable to agree on something as trivial as hand-ball intent, or other incidents of foul play. Talk to those involved afterwards and they’ll give you equally plausible and contradictory views on an incident that is far-better recorded than this one.
And that is for something as trivial as a sporting decision. If we are making the accusation that someone tried to deliberately push a woman into the traffic then I think better evidence is needed.
If I collided with a stranger like this and found myself pushing them away, I’d immediately 1) slow down, 2) check to make sure my victim was okay, and 3) apologize profusely. I suspect 95% of the non-institutionalized population would do this instinctually, even if nothing dramatic happened to the person they hit. It’s just habit; you accidentally bump someone, you say “excuse me” to show no malicious intention. If you keep on as if nothing happens, at minimum, that makes you a strange bird. Malicious intent then becomes more reasonable to infer because your behavior is indistinguishable from someone who has acted maliciously.
You mention contact sports, but the rules of behavior are vastly different in that arena. There, you can touch someone and not cause offense because it’s expected collusions are going to happen. But pedestrians follow different rules.
In sum, to accept your theory, you we have to accept two improbable things occurred at the same time: 1) that a jogger would actively push a stranger to keep from colliding into them and 2) that this jogger would lack the instinct to stop and apologize for this action.
That’s not particularly improbable.
Also, plenty of rude people everywhere.
Shoving someone with enough force to knock them down is not just “rude”. YMMV.
It isn’t that difficult either.
Hmmmm. You are claiming the same degree of certainty which you are chiding others for.
Do tell. Under what circumstances have you shoved people when running? Are you a man and did you knock a woman down?
I used to run in Tokyo and while there was some accidental contact, I never saw someone (let alone me) actually deliberately shove anyone, let alone knock them to the ground.
Hardly, my posts have been consistent in their allowance that I might be wrong. Others seem less comfortable in saying that. I even gave it a figure of 80/20 accidental/malicious.
In sport I’ve had many, many occasions where I’ve run into people deliberately and shoved them deliberately at all sorts of speeds and all sizes and when I/they have been expecting it or not. I’ve also have had it done to me. I’m pretty familiar with the sort of forces and bodily reactions involved in the collision we see on the video.
Only a couple of weeks ago I collided with a team mate as we were jogging about our business, not much above a walking pace but both with our attention elsewhere and even with fluorescent bibs on we didn’t see each other until half a pace before contact. There was a little shimmy of avoidance and I have no idea what would have looked like a distant camera but both our arms came up in defence before contact and he dislocated a little finger on my elbow and we both ended up on our arses and I still have a yellowing bruise under armpit where his elbow jabbed me. All pretty par for the course and very much comparable with the sort of contact seen on the video.
Quite, an accidental contact is more likely than a purposeful shove. I don’t see a definite purposeful shove in that video.
You have made definitive statements which are not supported by the video, including your suggestion that the deviation did not occur prior to contact. You have no problem stating that as a fact, with or without percentages given. The only problem you have with people seeing things in the video is when they see things you don’t.
You are aware than one can’t take the rules in a sport and apply them to the outside world, right? A boxer can no more hit grandmothers in the supermarket than pitchers are allowed to bean their neighbors.
Footballers are allowed to shove people out of their way. It’s all part of the game. People running along the street are not. It doesn’t matter if it’s a learned behavior. It’s illegal.
The hit is clearly intentional. Whether or it’s malicious really depends on the timing of the deviation of his line, and most people, including the police, are seeing it differently than you.
OK, If I have been less than exact in my language let me correct that now, The only clear deviation I can see in the runner’s line is right before or at the point of contact (The point of contact is not even clear and may have happened between frames).
I do not state it as fact because my point throughout has been that the video is not clear enough to state much with any confidence.
Will you agree that the jogger is obscured by the victim in the immediate preceding frames before contact?
I don’t have a “problem”, I think they are probably wrong and it is a useful exercise for all of us to have our easy assumptions challenged.
What on earth are you on about?
why are you responding to point I never made? Where did I say that joggers should be able to barge into people or push them out of the way? Are you under the impression that I’m on the side of the jogger here?
I raised the sporting issues as examples of where person to person accidental and purposeful collisions and pushes often happen and invite people to think about what those look and feel like and consider the video in the context of that knowledge.
The contact is clearly contact and the jogger didn’t stop. That is about as much as you can say, Proving “intent” is another thing altogether.
From that video alone the deviation point is not clear (and you’ve admitted as much in your first response at the top of this post).
I’ve been clear throughout that I am not certain about this incident and merely calling out those who see detail, clarity and intent where it doesn’t necessarily exist. I could be wrong. If better videos came forward I’d have no problem admitting my mistake. Being wrong on the internet is an occupational hazard for us all.
As you point to above, a huge amount rests on the timings and the deviations and also the arm positions, head positions, direction of fall etc…in other words, lots of factors that are only hinted at in this ill-framed, long distance, low resolution, low-framerate video. I don’t trust what you see or I see and perceive from the video as it stands and so I’m happy to sound a note of caution before trying and convicting this guy on this basis alone.
So you’re saying… they accidentally collided, and then after the accidental collision, he pushed her? Why would he do that? And if you agree that he pushed her, why does it matter if there was an accidental collision first?
But race isn’t a factor in everything, and here’s a good of example of where it’s not absent your irrelevant speculation about how people would view it differently if it wasn’t a ‘white guy’. You can’t possibly prove that. And it’s not self evident in the true sense of that term no matter how much you think it is.
While to me it looks deliberate, it can plausibly be argued, in keeping with Novelty’s thesis, that his arms went up afterwards in an effort to regain balance. If the runner truly was just completely zoned out and drifted into the path of the woman to body check her, there would be a temporary disruption of balance that would require some correction. If the arms truly did go up after contact, that would make sense to me.
They haven’t identified the actual guy. They came up with a guy who turned out not to have been in the country at the time. I assume that was from a tip of somebody who said they thought they recognized him. If it was brute force facial recognition computing including a database of photo’s of foreigners who’d recently been in the UK you’d think that would have included whether the passport processing of any ‘hit’ showed they were in the UK on that date. 
No, I don’t it is certain that he “pushed” her at all. His arms go up but it is not clear whether that is before, during or just after the collision and whether that is a “fending off” action that may or may not have contributed much to her falling.
What it looks like to me in the film is that she does not fly off into the road, which is what I’d expect from a deliberate push at speed, she rather spins round, drops straight down onto her arse and then bounces backwards into the road. That as much as anything suggests no deliberate push to me.