That’s 67% of the popular vote.
53% of the electoral college. It looks like PA and MI got a bit more blue.
Can you clarify what these numbers are? The probability of winning the electoral college? Or, the expected fraction of the popular vote?
He runs a statistical model using polling in each state as inputs. In 53% of the model runs, Harris wins the electoral college.
Also interestingly his model now has the economy as a slight net negative for Harris, which is contrast to a lot of economy is doing great sentiment around here.
The economy has taken a downturn in just the last few days, or at least negative reports have come out in the last few days. The sentiment “around here” was reflecting the much better reports earlier than that.
No it has not.
Yes. Two negative reports. Which raised concern about the economy and a significant stock market reaction. The mantra bears repeating though: the market is not the economy.
To some degree it may turn out to be good campaign news over the next two months as this may be the impetus to lower interest rates. Which does impact the perception of the economy.
I’m not talking about the stock market itself. I’m talking about the rise in unemployment and fears of a recession. It’s not the change in the stock market that is the issue, it’s the reason why the stock market has dropped that could be an issue.
Absolutely, I’ve said before (maybe in this thread) that it’s the perception of consumers that is going to matter as far as the election is concerned, and for last month consumer confidence had risen. So if this is indeed just a blip and there are no long-term negative effects on the economy, and more especially if people still feel good about the economy, then it won’t hurt Harris’s chances in a few months.
To clarify, that’s a 67% chance of winning the popular vote. 67% of the popular vote would be a ridiculous landslide the likes of which nobody has seen in their lifetime.
Yes. That’s literally what I said a couple of posts up. That post was answering a follow up question.
Sure. To be fair its has been close to even the whole time, just with the last couple days swinging it to mildly negative. Harris is thus slightly overperforming the fundamentals while Biden was consistently underperforming them.
Thank you for precisely answering.
Recent polls show:
Tiny lead (well within margin of error) for Harris in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania; her lead in Michigan is on somewhat stronger ground.
Tiny lead (well within margin of error) for Trump in Georgia and Arizona; his lead in Nevada is on somewhat stronger ground.
I would say North Carolina has seen the most important movement toward Harris. It currently looks more winnable for her than Nevada.
Minnesota and New Hampshire are pretty firmly in Harris’ camp.
(Caveats: things can and will change in the next three months; we don’t have a whole lot of state polls yet since Harris took over; there may be a pro-Harris response bias in recent polls).
I think Walz gets picked and we get a moderate not-Shapiro boost. Maybe another one after the convention. Then it really gets interesting.
Now that Walz is basically confirmed as the VP pick, I’m still hoping for Pete for Secretary of State. The guy has the chops for it.
I don’t know. Transportation to State is a big jump.
It is the one Secretary position that makes sense for future runs for President or VP. He is a solid pick and popular among Democrats.
His resume is awfully skimpy though. 
For VP I agree, but for Secretary of State, not so much. Also the State Department usually runs fine as long as the Secretary doesn’t hamper them. If he gets the job, he can grow on the job. I doubt he’s the type to be an asshole boss that will screw with the running of the Department.
But if Harris goes a different way, Buttigieg really needs to pursue a high level elected seat.
Rhodes Scholar, former vet including six months in Afghanistan, and a fluent speaker of a half dozen languages, plus an unflappable demeanor and the ability to absolutely destroy hostile interrogators calmly with facts. He’s got the intelligence, temperament and enough foreign experience for the role, and is unlikely to override State Department experts for purposes of personal aggrandizement.
I think he’d be a strong choice.