Can’t see a thing but a big box demanding that I sign in.
This seems to be intermittent with X these days, but it still happens.
Harris now is up to 56.0% chance of winning the electoral college in Nate Silver’s model. It keeps getting better and better.
Please, Lord! I will be so embarrassed if Michigan, my state, goes for Trump again. We JUST re-elected a Democrat governor by a wide margin.
Sorry. I was under the impression the “onebox” would show you a summary of the Tweet. Here you go:
Thanks!
Where can you find Nate Silvers model? It looks like 538.com hasn’t been updated since Biden dropped out.
Note that, just in case you were not aware, Silver is no longer associated with 538. He had sold it to Disney’s ESPN division back in 2013 (but continued providing content for it), but when Disney had a round of layoffs in 2023, Silver’s contract with them was not renewed.
Hence, 538 is now operating under ABC News (another Disney division), while Silver has started his own blog, Silver Bulletin, on Substack. Unfortunately, to actually see Silver’s prediction model, you have to have a paid subscription with him.
Correct. I have an paid account with Nate ($10/month) and will keep it through the election and provide updates. Sometimes he will provide the results on X for everyone to see.
Hmmm. My quadrennial obsession since 2016 has been doom-scrolling 538 every day. I guess I’ll need to find a new hobby (or pony up the $10/mo).
Half the time I can’t see anything on X. (Well, other than the huge sign-in box.) It comes and goes.
Guess I might as well take 538 off my favorites list. And I can’t afford to pay everybody; or even very many anybodies. But it’s not as if my vote were going to be decided by anybody’s polling.
Best post::username ever.
Does anybody have polling results from Virginia? Trump had just about pulled even here before Biden dropped out. I think it is a mistake to assume it will go blue for both the President and Senate.
Good question – well, the president part, anyway (there’s no danger of Kaine losing the Senate race).
It’s reasonable to assume that VA has shifted toward Harris along with most of the rest of the country, but it would be good to know just how much. Surely there will be a well-run state poll there in the next month.
Nate Silver has Harris with a 83% chance of wining VA. She has surged there.
Well, Nate “use national polls to make inferences about state polls.” This is reasonable and tends to work pretty well, but still, it would be good to have some direct state polling in purplish states beyond the big six.
ETA – WhatExit, there’s your answer. Silver has no new Virginia-specific data – there isn’t any. It’s just mathematical correlations at this point. Nothing wrong with that, but at some point direct data is helpful.
Weird, I wonder what polling data he has. Harris was up by 5 on July 12th, but I haven’t found a poll since then. I would expect it to be higher right now, but expect and reality are often different.
ETA: Got it. Yes we need more real polls.
Cook Political polls just released:
Yup. Like I said almost a week ago, Nevada is looking disappointing for Harris, while North Carolina is looking surprisingly rosy, perhaps to the point where the latter has supplanted the former as the third “second tier” state (with Georgia and Arizona).
I follow electoral-vote.com, which has a nice plot “Electoral College 2024 Excluding States Where the Candidates are Statistically Tied”:
Harris has a slight edge, but neither candidate has enough statistically significant electoral votes to win. Notably however, there are now more states statistically tied than when Biden was leading the ticket.
Flipping NC and ceding NV would be a +10 in the Electoral College. If Nevada has to turn red, North Carolina turning blue would certainly cushion the blow.
Not based on anything firm … but I don’t think the book on Nevada is closed yet.