As I recall, a real loonie is running on the GOP/MAGA ticket for North Carolina governor, to the point I sent the Dem candidate some money alongside my usual key-senate-race contributions. Maybe there’s a coat-tail (reverse coat-tail?) thing where sane moderate people plan to turn out to oppose the crazy gubernatorial candidate and oppose the crazy presidential candidate while voting anyway.
Which reminds me, there are referenda to protect abortion rights in seven states: Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Maryland, Missouri, Nevada, and South Dakota. Link. Link. Judging from past elections, hopefully these pass on their own accord but also increase voter turnout for the elections on the same ballots.
Edited to actually say North Carolina when I mean North Carolina (thanks, flurb!).
I see that Arizona and Missouri have abortion rights on the ballot. I’ve mentioned before that this is also in Florida, and I expect it to drive out voters who will support Harris. (By contrast, I recall when opposition to gay marriage was a big boon to Republican votes in 2004)
A lot of cash from crypto businesses is being given to Democratic candidates, and Kamala Harris’ campaign is trying to make friends with the crypto bosses. I don’t care for crypto (though admittedly I don’t understand it either) so this is understandable if disappointing.
Crypto is like Icelandic millionaires before the financial crisis. One of them owned a dog he said was worth 10 million. Another one also owned a dog and at that point said it too was worth 10 million. They switched dogs. Now both are definitely millionaires.
Nate Silver has hammered the point that PA is key. That’s why he thought that Shapiro should have been the VP choice. Even a couple more points chance of getting PA would be overwhelmingly helpful.
According to his model, Harris wins 93% of the time if she wins PA, Trump 95% of the time. It’s the state that tips the election 38% of the time. MI and WI are next with 12% and 11% respectively.
These percentages overstate the importance of PA, as demonstrated by the percentage if she wins FL. Not to say PA isn’t important, but it doesn’t mean, for example, focus all the attention on PA at the expense of other states (which is what a Shapiro pick risked doing).
The reason the % is so high is because of correlation between the states. If she wins PA in the model, it’s because she is doing well in other states as well.
