Yeah, she wins 99.9% of the time if she wins Wyoming.
I was just about to post this. Exactly.
I still think there’s a reasonable chance she’ll lose PA, but win some combination of AZ, GA, NC, or NV – partly because she’s a young-ish woman of color, not an old white guy like Biden (and Biden is a sort of favorite son in PA – this only counts for a little, but thousands or even hundreds of votes could make the difference here).
Biden’s endorsement of Kamala and campaigning for her specifically in Pennsylvania will hopefully be of help here.
I will note that Biden is also campaigning with her today in Maryland, the first joint appearance they’ve had in a campaign stop since Joe dropped out.
I also like the convenient blurb that Kamala is now leading in Pennsylvania, but I’m not sure what “new polls” the article is citing.
The article also notes in regard to Pennsylvania that Kamala may benefit from a spike in Democratic voter registrations since she became candidate (which suggests that even in that state, they like her over Joe).
I think I link that earlier. Let me check.
Here are the 2 latest:
FWIW, Nate Silver has had Harris ahead in Pennsylvania for a little bit now.
At the link below, scroll down to the bold header “Polls included in our model” and then choose the “PA” button (you can check out other states, as well). The three most recent polls in Pennsylvania, which Silver weighs the heaviest, have Harris up by an average of three points.
The “How have our polling averages changed since Harris replaced Biden?” chart is also worth a perusal.
In the overall scheme of things, this means not a whit. On July 27, 19 days ago, a Facebook group was created called ‘Kansas Women for Kamala Harris.’ As of this morning, the group had 15.6k members.
If you mean that the existence of this (and its membership count) indicates that Harris cannot lose, because Kansas is so deep-red, not so fast – Kansas has plenty of Democrats or Dem-leaners (especially in cities like Lawrence, but not just there), and has elected Democratic governors on several occasions in recent decades.*
(A couple years ago, there was even some talk of it approaching the purple zone in national elections. That is unlikely to happen soon, but, rather like in Texas, it’s not crazy talk, like it would be for Idaho, West Virginia, or Alabama).
(*But Trump will of course get its electoral votes this November).
biden is doing well at the joint appearance.
Not sure what exactly you mean by this…?
My basis for that post is that, as you mentioned, ruby-red Kansas actually has a fair number of Dems. Just not enough to swing the electoral needle. I think, however, that the Dems may be a bit more vocal than in past elections.
Kansas, by the way, is the only state to have elected three female Democratic governors, IIRC.
Many of the states that we think of as deeply red or blue still routinely cast 40% or so of their votes for the other party’s candidate. The most lopsided state in the last Presidential election was Wyoming that went 70% Trump to 27% Biden. Although the District of Columbia (which, while not a state, still casts electors per the 23rd Amendment) has them beat, having gone 92% Biden to 5% Trump.
Got it. I thought you were saying that the existence of such an FB group in even in Kansas implies a sure Harris win nationally – and I wanted to clarify that it’s far from a sure thing.
You were observing yet another data point for the clear surge of enthusiasm for Harris nationwide. That, yes, for sure.
If only! But I will say that there was nothing like this in 2020 or 2016. Gives me some hope.
Right on.
Harris wins 100% of the time if she wins Florida.
I predicted this- and the fact abortion is on the ballot will bring out a lot of angry women voters.
Yep- 7 ranchers voted for trump and 3 townies voted for Biden.
A recent Monmouth University poll seems to draw the same conclusion about the younger voters and the (likely critical) “double haters:”
Much more information, along with the survey methodology (n=801) available at the linked site or via this 35pp PDF.
Republican pollster Frank Lutz has some insight into Harris’ run.
Her next big opportunity to take a giant leap forward is during the debate with Trump. I don’t think he knows how to do anything but complain; I can’t image him wielding facts and statistics, and I really think the average person is just tired of his whining about doom and gloom.
So she really just needs to do a cromulent job touting the administration’s accomplishments and her plans for the next 4 years.
A nice zinger wouldn’t hurt, either. No pressure or anything.
I also think that there’s another opportunity for her campaign to get a jolt (albeit indirectly) when the US Fed meets in mid September. Inflation is dropping, and they’ve been dragging their feet on cutting interest rates.
If they finally do, it will heat up the economy. People will feel better about borrowing money, and it’s my hope that the voting public will be feeling the affects as they begin early voting
The kajillion-and-one “mean not a whit” things that the Harris-Walz campaign is accumulating, I wager, are going to mean quite a bit in the end of it all. It’s just that we dare not countenance it yet.
Yeah, snarky but not quite an insult. Like when he demeans her legal skills “well, I see you have also spent a lot of time in a courtroom…”
I honestly don’t know what this is technically. It’s not really an ad. It just popped up on my YouTube, but I thought it gave me a better insight into the candidates. Harris really does love her Venn diagrams.
She focused on child SA cases? Ugh, that would break my soul. Needs a strong person to do that.